Thread by @bcshaffer

Some thoughts on a wild night for Alberta power yesterday…

[thread]

First, @theAESO operators deserve a shout out. They managed the grid smoothly through a tense situation.

Also, HUGE shout out to the thermal fleet operators. Only 1 plant (Milner) tripped during this cold snap. That’s incredible performance given the conditions.

Second, the emergency alert looks to have triggered a 150MW response. That’s inline per capita with the 2100MW Cali got from a similar event in 2022. Well done, Albertans. This highlights the capability of demand flexibility but emergency alerts are not a sustainable solution.

It’s time for AB to deploy smart meters and pay consumers who are willing to be flexible. Not “blackout flexibility”, but some appliances in their home. This is where the future of electricity is going; cheaper than most supply solutions. And it can be optional.

Third, reinforces need for flexibility in Clean Elec Regs. We can and should decarb but AB needs flexibility to get there. Given how cheap renewables are, they will be large share of annual energy but we need flexible peaking capacity. Market design and regs need to enable that.

What’s next?
Today will be tight again but barring unplanned outage, should be okay.
Going forward, AB has a LOT of new supply coming online this year (Cascade 900MW; Genesee 1400MW replacing 800MW coal; Suncor cogen 800MW). We will be surplus for a while until retirements start.

As for some of the repliers comments to my tweets last night...

A mixed bag of comments. Mostly civil. But...

"Wait until we get 1 million EVs"

EV charging is possibly the easist electric demand to shift. Very flexible. See recent work here: nber.org/digest/202401/…

"Your Y-axis is a crime!"

Do you ppl chart temperature with a Y-axis at 0 Kelvin? No, for time series line charts the relevant range is appropriate; bar charts require the 0 intercept.

Showing the large and near instant 150MW drop was important.

But here's your useless chart:

"This proves wind and solar are useles. F&%k JT!"

Wind and solar are cheap *raw energy* resources. Providing more and more of AB's annual energy. They are not peaking capacity resources... and that's ok. That's why we have a *portfolio* of resources.

"NUCLEAR!!!"

Only thing more reliable than nuclear power are the nuke bros on Twitter.

I'm all for it. Go build it.

But for now, wind+solar are cheap and deployable. Couple them with low capacity factor peakers+DR+storage for a low-cost low-GHG system. Add nukes, sure.

Anyways, that's it for now. No shortage of excitement in the electricity file these days! Wouldn't have it any other way :)

Timely discussions ongoing regarding market design and transmission policy. Important to get them right!

And reporters pinging me, sorry, i'm out today.