I like and respect @VivekGRamaswamy but when I suggested that he could be our next president, I did not understand all of his policy positions or what they would become. I think our country needs someone closer to the center to bring us together. Vivek is not that candidate. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
To be clear, I prefer @VivekGRamaswamy to @realDonaldTrump@GovRonDeSantis and @POTUS and would vote for him if those were the choices. I just think the country would benefit by a candidate whose views and policies were closer to the center where I believe the majority is.
Perhaps with our primary system, we have no hope for a more centrist candidate to make it through to a general election. If that is indeed the case then @VivekGRamaswamy is our best bet for now. Here’s hoping that if he wins, he works hard to bring us together.
The failure of @SVB_Financial could destroy an important long-term driver of the economy as VC-backed companies rely on SVB for loans and holding their operating cash. If private capital can’t provide a solution, a highly dilutive gov’t preferred bailout should be considered.
After what the Feds did to @jpmorgan after it bailed out Bear Stearns, I don’t see another bank stepping in to help @SVB_Financial.
The gov’t could also guarantee deposits in exchange for a dilutive warrant issuance and other covenants and protections. If @SVB_Financial is indeed solvent, this would buy time to enable SVB to restore the franchise and raise new private capital.
I am going to make a bold and early call. @VivekGRamaswamy will run for POTUS and win. I think the country is ready for his message. He is young, smart, talented and will attract the center to the right to win. He speaks hard truths which many believe but fear to say.
He is a very talented and successful entrepreneur who understands business, economics, healthcare, politics, history and geopolitics. You won’t likely agree with all of his views, but you will respect his candor, acumen, discipline and energy. One to watch.
And let’s remember that the improbable candidate often wins. Think Clinton, Obama, and Trump. Most people laughed at the thought of any of the previous up until months before the election.
In late 2012, we shorted @Herbalife and delivered our initial 342-page deck centerforinquiry.org/wp-content/upl… . In sum, we said that HLF was a pyramid scheme that was causing enormous economic harm. HLF has declined by 24% since then. The S&P has ~tripled over the same period.
We made numerous other presentations about @herbalife identifying new issues and addressing false and misleading statements that HLF made in response to our presentations. The @FTC launched an investigation of HLF in March 2014. In July 2016, HLF settled with the FTC for $200m.
In March 2014, we made a presentation about HLF China. In sum, we said that HLF was violating China anti-pyramiding law and had inaccurate SEC filings. HLF said: "The presentation reflects Mr. Ackman’s continued failure to fundamentally understand Herbalife’s business model."
Many have expressed surprise about my interest in the FTX situation and my openness to the possibility that @SBF_FTX may be telling the truth as I have no economic interest or relationship with any of the parties. Perhaps some background on my life experiences will help explain.
20 years ago on 12/9/02, I released a white paper entitled ‘Is MBIA Triple-A’ where in 55-pages I questioned the AAA credit ratings of the largest bond insurer. I disclosed on page one that my firm, Gotham Partners, held a short position in the company.
A few weeks later, then-NYAG Eliot Spitzer launched an investigation accusing me of market manipulation. As a high profile hedge fund manager and with this being Spitzer’s second major initiative after his successful Wall Street analyst investigation, it was front page news.
My issues with KO/PEP are more with their advertising, health disclosures (not), and the buying off of critics. The harm is born by less health-aware consumers who are disproportionately kids or from low income groups. When was the last time you saw an obese person in a Coke ad?
And then think about all of the negative externalities. What have Coke/Pepsi contributed to our health care costs? And think about all of the plastic bottles in the ocean. Why haven’t KO/PEP invested some of their massive profits in developing a truly biodegradable bottle?
In reality, neither company is as profitable as their public filings suggest because the real costs, if they were properly burdened with their negative externalities, are much, much higher than reported. The problem is that society, rather than Coke and Pepsi, bears these costs.