I like and respect @VivekGRamaswamy but when I suggested that he could be our next president, I did not understand all of his policy positions or what they would become. I think our country needs someone closer to the center to bring us together. Vivek is not that candidate. twitter.com/i/web/status/1… To be clear, I prefer @VivekGRamaswamy to @realDonaldTrump @GovRonDeSantis and @POTUS and would vote for him if those were the choices. I just think the country would benefit by a candidate whose views and policies were closer to the center where I believe the majority is.

The failure of @SVB_Financial could destroy an important long-term driver of the economy as VC-backed companies rely on SVB for loans and holding their operating cash. If private capital can’t provide a solution, a highly dilutive gov’t preferred bailout should be considered. After what the Feds did to @jpmorgan after it bailed out Bear Stearns, I don’t see another bank stepping in to help @SVB_Financial.

I am going to make a bold and early call. @VivekGRamaswamy will run for POTUS and win. I think the country is ready for his message. He is young, smart, talented and will attract the center to the right to win. He speaks hard truths which many believe but fear to say.

https://twitter.com/vivekgramaswamy/status/1625655127146381314

He is a very talented and successful entrepreneur who understands business, economics, healthcare, politics, history and geopolitics. You won’t likely agree with all of his views, but you will respect his candor, acumen, discipline and energy. One to watch.

In late 2012, we shorted @Herbalife and delivered our initial 342-page deck centerforinquiry.org/wp-content/upl… . In sum, we said that HLF was a pyramid scheme that was causing enormous economic harm. HLF has declined by 24% since then. The S&P has ~tripled over the same period. We made numerous other presentations about @herbalife identifying new issues and addressing false and misleading statements that HLF made in response to our presentations. The @FTC launched an investigation of HLF in March 2014. In July 2016, HLF settled with the FTC for $200m.

Many have expressed surprise about my interest in the FTX situation and my openness to the possibility that @SBF_FTX may be telling the truth as I have no economic interest or relationship with any of the parties. Perhaps some background on my life experiences will help explain. 20 years ago on 12/9/02, I released a white paper entitled ‘Is MBIA Triple-A’ where in 55-pages I questioned the AAA credit ratings of the largest bond insurer. I disclosed on page one that my firm, Gotham Partners, held a short position in the company.

My issues with KO/PEP are more with their advertising, health disclosures (not), and the buying off of critics. The harm is born by less health-aware consumers who are disproportionately kids or from low income groups. When was the last time you saw an obese person in a Coke ad?

https://twitter.com/billackman/status/1610017122192687104

And then think about all of the negative externalities. What have Coke/Pepsi contributed to our health care costs? And think about all of the plastic bottles in the ocean. Why haven’t KO/PEP invested some of their massive profits in developing a truly biodegradable bottle?

It appears that @FTX_Official was a legitimate profitable exchange started by an MIT grad with backing from top VCs at a massive valuation. Why would @SBF_FTX commit fraud at Alameda and blow up FTX and risk a lifetime in jail? This reminds me of Madoff who had a profitable trading operation that generated more than he could ever spend on his lifestyle. Why would he get involved in a ponzi scheme? A theory: Both lost money and were embarrassed. Rather than acknowledge the losses, they assumed that they could ‘borrow’ customer

For the last few years, I have agreed to do a lunch auction for @LynchFoundation that was managed by @charitybuzz. Only this year did I learn that @charitybuzz takes 20% of the auction price from the charity plus a 10% fee from the winner of the auction. I asked @LynchFoundation to negotiate a lower take rate. @charitybuzz initially offered to reduce the rate to 15%, and then they reneged. @charitybuzz should be shut down and return the $150 million+ in fees that they have taken from donors.

In a recent thread on crypto, I argued that crypto and tokens enabled the formation of businesses that heretofore could not be created. Some responded that cash could be used in place of tokens, and therefore the ‘innovation’ of crypto was not meaningful. I beg to differ. Others assumed that I was advocating or perhaps even ‘pumping’ specific tokens, but I was doing no such thing. Rather I was trying to make the case that crypto and tokenization were useful technologies for business formation. I will try to make the case clearer here.

The telephone, the internet, and crypto share one thing in common. Each technology improves on the next in terms of its ability to facilitate fraud. As such, I was initially a crypto skeptic, but after studying some of the more interesting crypto projects, I have come to believe that crypto can enable the formation of useful businesses and technologies that heretofore could not be created. The ability to issue a token to incentivize participants in a venture is a powerful lever in accessing a global workforce to advance a project. The problem

Since the @Ukraine war commenced, I have been a 110% supporter of UKR urging the US to accelerate the delivery of more and better weapons and more financial support. I have also contributed $12m of direct philanthropic support and $10m of indirect support to groups assisting UKR. Yesterday, I suggested that a reasonable peace settlement might be a return to the borders as of 2/24, a Marshall Plan to rebuild UKR, and UKR’s decision to not join NATO. Then the knives came out. I was accused of being an appeaser and worse. I ask: is UKR better off in a

David and I have had divergent views on @Ukraine. I believe that nuclear blackmail must never be allowed to succeed. David has been questioning how much support the US should provide UKR. That said I find his suggestion below the basis for a potential resolution.

https://twitter.com/davidsacks/status/1581737838650920960

Crimea was part of Russia until 1954 and is largely comprised of ethnic Russians, which was apparently why the world did little when Russia annexed it back in 2014. If we return to the status quo ex ante 2/24, Russia is not rewarded for its aggression and Ukraine can immediately

Yesterday, a Federal judge rendered a decision pershingsquarefoundation.org/wp-content/upl… that no one has likely read. You should. The lawsuit is against MindGeek, the largest internet porn company in the world, and @Visa. Both are culpable. Visa’s conduct here is inexcusable, likely to cause the company incalculable financial and reputational damage and create serious Caremark personal liability and potential criminal liability for the board. The decision summarizes the life destruction of a 13-year-old girl due to a sex video

. I recently read @NickTimiraos book Trillion Dollar Triage which describes how Powell and the @federalreserve managed through the Covid crisis. It is a great book with an inside look at how central bank sausage is made. Powell’s leadership under fire was clearly remarkable and saved the country and perhaps the world from a potential economic crisis which would have made the pandemic and death rates much more catastrophic. Literally he saved millions and should be commended. The book also makes clear Steven Mnuchin’s role. He does not get as much credit

Carried interest, giving an entrepreneur a disproportionate share of a deal or a company in exchange for their ideas, talent and drive is a 500+ year old practice. Those who own or control the capital often must rely on younger and/or poorer entrepreneurs who have the ideas, vision and drive. In the start up world, this occurs when the founders -- think Steve Jobs and a few friends form Apple and are issued 100% of the common stock, let's say 10m shares for $100. When the idea is developed further, Steve raises capital at massively and

On Wed, Powell said that the @federalreserve had gotten rates to neutral: “We’re at 2.25 to 2.5 and that’s right in the range of what we think is neutral.” The bond and stock market have rallied substantially since as the implication is that rates need not increase much more. The problem is that we are not close to a neutral rate. While 2.25 to 2.25% may be a neutral rate with 2% inflation, it is an extremely accommodative rate with inflation at 9%. One’s cost of borrowing is a function of the interest rate and

The @federalreserve goal at its June 15 meeting was to tighten financial conditions by raising FF by 75bps and sending a message about being tough on inflation. Since the close on June 14th, 2yr, 10yr and 30 year rates are down 36, 70 and 41 bps respectively. Nasdaq is up 10% and the S&P 500 is up 6%. IG and HY credit spreads have declined 14%. Clearly financial conditions have eased materially which has made the inflation problem worse. Why? Because the Fed has not shown serious resolve in addressing inflation. Traders ignore Fed dot plots and Powell’s

Tomorrow, Powell is likely to be asked: “Market pricing implies that the terminal FF rate will peak at 3.4% in 12/22 immediately declining thereafter to 2.7% by YE ‘23. What factors would cause the @federalreserve to immediately lower rates after just raising them?” Interestingly the more the market believes that the Fed will immediately reverse course, the less effective raising rates will be in moderating inflation, and the more the Fed will have to raise rates. Inflation has become imbedded in the economy and is front of mind for every American.

In response to today’s CPI print which showed broad-based and accelerating inflation, short-term FF futures moved upward implying peak FF of 3.68% by 12/22 with the @federalreserve immediately thereafter cutting rates to reach 2.9% by 1/24. Implicitly the market expects a more aggressive Fed will push us into recession by year end and then cut rates in response. Fed dot plots from a few weeks ago suggest that FF will rise to slightly higher levels, remain flat in 2023 with a gradual reduction beginning in ‘24. After today’s move, the disparity between

Over the past two weeks, rates have declined dramatically purportedly due to fears of a recession. Friday’s move was particularly stunning for the scale of the move and for the degree of intraday volatility. I put forth here a theory of what is going on: On the risk of a recession: a recession is defined as a two quarter decline in real, as opposed to nominal, GDP. In a highly inflationary economy, it is more difficult for nominal spending and growth to exceed inflation. In order therefore for today’s economy to grow on a real

I think the bond market is misreading the @federalreserve. This is likely due to Powell’s communication style and some wishful thinking on the part of investors. Inflation is out of control and inflationary expectations have become unanchored. The Fed has finally come to this realization and has decided to act, and is playing catch up. However, Powell does not come across as someone who wants to go to battle against inflation. He seems uncomfortable and reluctant, almost apologetic, about raising rates.