Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Jan 15 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This is becoming a growing scandal for the Australian government, which refuses to provide reasonable answers to questions about why these aircraft can’t be transferred to #Ukraine. 1/9 🧵
2/ For those who propose they are ‘too complex’ for Ukraine to operate, I present the evidence of M1 and Leopard 2 tanks, HiMARS, SCALP missiles and the Patriot air defence system. All of which Ukraine has mastered.
3/ For those who claim ‘supportability’ issues, Taipans in Ukraine would be much closer to the European support bases used by nearly a dozen other military organisations for these helicopters. The same argument was used to initially deny tanks, missiles and F16s to #Ukraine.
4/ For those who claim the Taipans aren’t fit for purpose, perhaps we should ask the views of Finland, Germany, New Zealand, Spain, France, Belgium, Sweden and other nations who successfully operate them.
5/ Not only is this a scandalous decision, it is immoral. Rushing to bury useable helicopters rather than transferring them to a nation fighting for its life is shameful and a national embarrassment.
6/ These helicopters could be vital in transporting battlefield casualties. The ability to get wounded soldiers to appropriate military hospitals inside the ‘golden hour’ can save many, many lives. Burying the Taipans denies this mission to the Ukrainian ground forces.
7/ The Australian government should immediately suspend any disposal action on the Taipans. Further, it should establish a rapid & independent review of whether they are technically capable of still being flown and sent to Ukraine.
8/ The lack of transparency around this issue speaks poorly of Defence, the government and democracy here. As a country, we can and should do much better to communicate government decision making to citizens. And to support other democracies in desperate need of assistance.
9/ To @AlboMP and @RichardMarlesMP, I only ask that you lead Australia in doing the right thing here. At the very least, we owe our citizens & #Ukraine a full & honest answer of what has happened & what we can do to resolve this situation. I believe our country can do better. End

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More from @WarintheFuture

Jan 8
Battlefield failure can be the harbinger of defeat, or the beginning of adaptation & intellectual renewal that leads to victory. This is the challenge that faces #Ukraine after President Zelensky accepted that the 2023 counteroffensive failed to meets its objectives. 1/17 🧵 Image
2/ This was accompanied by the late 2023 paper by General Zaluzhny on Positional Warfare. Unfortunately, too many have equated positional warfare with stalemate. That is unfortunate because they are certainly not the same.
3/ What is Positional Warfare? A 1990 RUSI Journal article examined the concept as part of a wider exploration of the likely forms of war open to European armies in the wake of the Cold War. Their definition of the application of Positional Warfare is worth quoting…
Read 17 tweets
Dec 29, 2023
A shocking series of Russian massed missile and drone attacks across #Ukraine. What does Putin & Russia aim to achieve, and what do the attacks tell us about the coercive power of strategic air, missile and drone attacks? 1/18 🧵
2/ At its most simple, these attacks are a larger scale version of the type of attacks on civilian infrastructure that Russia has mastered during this war. They aim to terrorise, and degrade civilian morale.
3/ But they are also aimed at responding to the last couple of weeks successes by the Ukrainians in their strike campaign. Russian fighter bombers and naval vessels have been destroyed by the UAF recently. Gerasimov knows this hurts Russian prestige. Image
Read 18 tweets
Dec 28, 2023
A short thread on the year ahead. At Duntroon officer training, we were told on morning parades to ‘ponder the day ahead’. It was wise advice. Currently, strategists will be pondering the year ahead for national security affairs. 1/15🧵 Image
2/ In #Ukraine, Russia seeks to project an air of inevitable victory with a range of offensive activities. This is important tactically, as they seek to reverse Ukrainian gains from 2023.
3/ It is also importantly politically as Russia approaches its 2024 elections, continues its global misinformation campaigns about western patience, and offers a ‘ceasefire’ that allows them time to reconstitute their forces for future offensives.
Read 15 tweets
Dec 13, 2023
This week, President Zelenskyy again travelled to Washington DC to discuss assistance for #Ukraine. What might we take away from his visit? 1/19 🧵

politico.com/news/2023/12/1…
2/ First, the adulation with which he was received last December has largely evaporated. With recent polls indicating growing U.S. disinterest in supporting Ukraine, some members of Congress see little interest in supporting this issue if it impacts their electoral prospects.
3/ Second, the centrality of US support is under appreciated by many in Congress. While not taking away from the courage and sacrifice of Ukrainians, US weapons and intelligence are critical to their fight.
Read 19 tweets
Nov 18, 2023
Since the release of the Zaluzhnyy paper, there has been discussion about how to help #Ukraine break out of Positional Warfare. There is no big secret way to do this. It requires just one thing from the West: Commitment. 1/10 🧵
mickryan.substack.com/p/breaking-out…
Image
2/ Western nations must commit anew to their aid to #Ukraine. This commitment has four elements: strategic, industrial, innovation and informational.
3/ The West needs to commit to a new strategy that looks beyond defending Ukraine and embraces the defeat of Russia. Not only does this send a signal of resolve to Ukraine, and other NATO allies who face an aggressive Russia, it also says to Putin that he can’t wait out the West.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 14, 2023
An update on Russian force structure changes. In the short term, these focus on #Ukraine ops & the shift towards Brigade & Division size formations, as well as expansion in the VDV. 1/9 🧵 ’s-military-restructuring-and-expansion-hindered-ukraine-war understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image
2/ The VDV expansion probably recognises their capability and flexibility during operations in #Ukraine. Interesting to watch the future of the current commander.
3/ Clearly, BTGs are dead. While combined arms grouping will be employed within Brigades and Divisions, this approach to force structure has not been successful in the past 21 months.
Read 9 tweets

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