1/ The Russian government has hidden a vast amount of data from the public in an apparent attempt to conceal the impact of the war in Ukraine. An analysis shows that almost 500 datasets have been removed since February 2022, covering everything from weather to state pensions. ⬇️
2/ The Russian publication 'To Be Precise' reports that at least 44 government bodies have stopped publishing data, with some statistical platforms being taken down entirely. The law was changed in February 2023 to allow the government to stop publishing state statistics.
3/ Much of the data that has been removed or suspended from publication relates to direct or indirect indicators of the war's impact. Such datasets were often used by independent Russian commentators and analysts. They include:
4/ 🔺 Data showing the impact of sanctions, including imports, exports, oil production and refining.
🔺 Information on companies subject to sanctions, companies involved in military production and companies workin on import substitution.
5/🔺 Government procurement and contracts, and budget expenditures.
🔺 Data relating to deaths and disabilities caused by the war.
🔺 Almost all data on prisoners, many of whom have died after being recruited to fight in Ukraine.
6/🔺 Monthly data on crimes committed with the use of firearms, ammunition and explosives, which had increased greatly in Russian regions bordering Ukraine.
🔺 Data on atmospheric altitude conditions was deleted following drone attacks on Moscow.
7/ 🔺 Data on potential strategic targets such as power plants, power lines, and radioactive waste storage sites, as well as regional offices of government departments.
🔺 Information on energy consumption, which could be used to infer the state of the economy.
8/🔺 Data on migration and the issuing of passports to residents of occupied regions of Ukraine.
🔺 At least 40 Russian government websites are now inaccessible to non-Russian IP addresses, likely in an attempt to prevent them being targeted by DDoS attacks from abroad.
1/ Russia's air defences are doing great, according to Russian warbloggers. However, they say that those of Laos (a synecdoche for Russia, to evade censors) are crippled by shortages of manpower and resources, and an inflexible command and control system.
2/ Two popular Russian Telegram warbloggers discuss problems with the Russian air defence system, using carefully worded euphemisms to avoid getting into trouble with the authorities. 'RAG&E' writes:
3/ "The Russian Armed Forces rank second in the world military rankings, but its air defence capabilities are clearly and rightfully ranked first.
I think everyone agrees on this, so let's move on to Laos.
1/ Russian journalist and analyst Yuri Baranchik asks plaintively: "why have they started terrorising the people?" He joins the dots between various recent actions by the Russian government, including the blocking of Telegram, and warns of a "1917 [or] 1989" scenario. ⬇️
2/ Baranchik's lament is the latest in a growing trend of Russian commentators suddenly becoming aware that the repressive power of the state is being turned on 'loyal Russians', rather than just against the despised liberals or anti-war protesters.
1/ Muscovites are being locked into an ever-growing 'digital gulag', complain Russian warbloggers, as a still-mysterious mobile Internet shutdown in central Moscow enters its second week. The shutdown is reported to be causing huge commercial losses and inconvenience. ⬇️
2/ Starting March 5th, Internet access in central Moscow was shut down, apparently on the orders of the Russian government. It has even extended to shutting down Wi-Fi on the Moscow Metro and the parliamentary Wi-Fi network in the State Duma.
3/ 'Blue Beard' says the city is being plunged back into the primeval darkness of 2007:
"The only app that works in the city centre in the evening, regardless of mobile internet conditions, is Yandex Music.
Meanwhile, Sberbank and T-Bank's banking apps have crashed."
1/ In recent weeks, an entire genre has sprung up on Telegram of Russian bloggers suddenly realising that they live in a repressive dictatorship. They complain bitterly that they were "fools", they are being "enslaved", and forced to endure a "cultural counter-revolution". ⬇️
2/ The forthcoming ban on Telegram – likely to be announced on 1 April – appears to have woken up many Russian bloggers to the way the Russian government is systematically attacking free speech. 'Under the ice' predicts catastrophe:
3/ "In general, the desire to confine all citizens of the country to a sterile information bubble, eliminating the use of inappropriate social networks, books, music, and films, will have the most devastating consequences for the state itself.
1/ Russia simply isn't capable of doing in Ukraine what the US and Israeli air forces are doing in Iran, a prominent Russian warblogger admits. He blames the Russian air force's "organisational backwardness, underdeveloped intelligence, and lack of specialised aviation." ⬇️
2/ Ukraine's aviation situation is starkly different to that of Iran's, despite facing a theoretically more powerful opponent. The Ukrainian Air Force is not only still flying in substantial numbers but has expanded its capabilities with the addition of Western aircraft.
3/ 'Military Informant' discusses why the Russian Aerospace Forces are still unable to achieve air superiority over Ukraine after over four years of full-scale war:
1/ News that the Iranian regime is proving more resilient than expected highlights its unusual governing structure as a 'polydictatorship'. In many ways, it was designed from the ground up to resist regime change. ⬇️
2/ The regime comprises a multi-layered set of elected and unelected institutions that shares power across religious bodies bodies, the armed forces (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), and economic entities. Each provides a separate and distinct power centre.
3/ They each have their own institutional bases, resources, coercive capacity, and claims to legitimacy — none of which fully controls the others, but which collectively make the regime more resilient to internal and external shocks.