From HUR's Vadym Skibitsky:
-Russia produced ~2 million 122mm/152mm artillery rounds in 2023 and received 1 million 122mm/152mm rounds from North Korea
-Russia produces ~115-130 "strategic" (>350km range) missiles per month
-~330-350 Shahed drones can be produced per month
He notes that actual production of Shaheds and missiles each month varies due to parts.
-Russia can produce 100-115 operational-tactical class of missiles (e.g. Kh-31, Kh-59) per month
-He says ~4% of Shahed drones fail to launch or explode immediately 2/ rbc.ua/rus/news/vadim…
Compared to last year, Russia's missile campaign this winter hasn't focused on energy infrastructure, but instead primarily on other infrastructure like Ukraine's defense industry and C2. He says Russia has started to use Shahed drones against military targets at the front. 3/
He says ~1,000-1,100 Russians join the military every day, and they are used to replace losses and form reserve regiments. He doesn't specify what percentage of them come from mobilization or volunteers, but he says the salary is the key motivation for those volunteering. 4/
He says former members of Wagner have signed contracts with different PMCs under the command of the Russian MoD or Rosgvardia in Ukraine or in Africa and the Middle East. He also says Iran hopes to receive Su-34 bombers from Russia. 5/
He says almost 80% of the components Russia receives, especially for electronics, comes from China and that most of these aren't even produced in China. As a result, he says it isn't that much of a problem for Russia to find the necessary components. 6/
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Video of an unsuccessful assault by Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade on Novomikhailovka with BMP-3 and an MT-LB. The naval infantrymen dismount after their BMP-3 hits a mine. They would retreat after coming under mortar + SAF.
I've largely drawn the opposite lesson from this war. I think tracked armored vehicles and tanks are still indispensable in a large-scale conventional land war, and any army that relies too heavily on wheeled vehicles assumes serious risks if they find themselves in one.
For 6-8 weeks every fall and spring, the ground conditions are quite poor in Ukraine. It is more difficult to operate heavy wheeled vehicles offroad than vehicles with tracks. Old MT-LBs are still useful as a result. 2/
The ground along the front line is littered with metal fragments and detritus. Armored wheeled vehicles often lose one or more wheels at the front even when they aren't struck, and artillery or AP mines are a greater problem for wheels than tracks. 3/ en.defence-ua.com/events/ukraini…
Video of FPV loitering munition strikes on Russian T-72B3 tanks, BMP-2, BMP-2M, a self-propelled howitzer, and trucks by Ukraine's Kraken unit. t.me/kraken_kha/452
According to several Ukrainian sources, Russia began a large-scale assault on both flanks of the Avdiivka front yesterday with armor, artillery, and aviation.
Video from Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Brigade showing strikes on Russian armor in the Pisky area. 2/ t.me/donbassrealii/…
Footage from Ukraine’s 53rd Mechanized Brigade of ATGM (some look like Javelins) and FPV strikes on Russian armor in the Avdiivka area from yesterday. 3/
Agree with this thread. There is variance in the credibility of Telegram channels. Without mentioning the original source, you make it difficult to determine the credibility of the footage. Some accounts also misrepresent the context provided by the original source.
I've also noticed that many people, including professors, retired military officers/officials, and journalists, struggle to identify credible "OSINT" accounts. One of the growing issues with misinformation is people with credibility retweeting/legitimizing misinformation accounts
When I see a tweet that recounts something from a Russian Telegram channel but doesn't specify which channel, I just immediately dismiss it. These sometimes come from small anonymous channels that I've never heard of, and thus, can't determine their credibility.
A # of Russian Telegram channels posted videos of explosions and a fire reportedly at the 13th Ship Repair Plant in Sevastopol, possibly from a missile strike.