Ukrainian operations on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, in the village of Krynky, have been ongoing since October 2023.
In this thread, I'll analyze the current situation and the future of the bridgehead in Krynky.
The thread includes high-resolution satellite images. 1/
A brief timeline of the events in the Dnipro River Delta since the liberation of Kherson. The “river war” has been a long process, often conducted in challenging conditions.
However, it has not generally been discussed as much in the media as some other sectors. 2/
In the village of Krynky, Ukrainian forces have been fighting a difficult battle for a prolonged time. The area controlled by Ukraine is small and natural cover is very limited. There is a forest next to the village, but it seems the Ukrainians have not advanced far into it. 3/
Russians have been using artillery, rocket launcher systems and aerial bombs against the Ukrainian positions in the village. The infrastructure has suffered significant damage and the ground is full of craters. We can see an example of that in this picture. 4/
The large aerial bomb craters may act as an indicator of the width of the permanent Ukrainian presence in the village. They are found along a distance of about 2400 metres, mostly near the first row of houses. This also correlates with recent geolocated material from the area. 5/
The river banks have also been actively bombed, and the craters quickly fill with water. The main supply route is most likely the Konka river, where Russia, of course, tries to monitor all larger Ukrainian movements and prevent logistics from working. 6/
The entire village is not under Ukrainian control. At the moment it seems that Ukraine is largely focused on holding on to what it has achieved, instead of attempting to gain full control. Ukrainian officials have also recognized the difficulties of the operation. 7/
Over the course of months, Russia had built fortifications in Krynky in two ranks – right next to the river and closer to the forest. Some of these have been captured by Ukraine. Russia also seems to have dug new positions on the east side of the village during the battle. 8/
Russians have launched multiple counterattacks against the bridgehead. Videos suggest that they do not attempt larger, coordinated assaults, but instead repeatedly send small detachments against Ukrainian positions, often from the same directions, with no significant results. 9/
Here we can see a part of the Russian losses. Various vehicles and a tank were destroyed or abandoned over the course of weeks. Advancing along this road has not brought success, but the Russians still seem to think it's a militarily reasonable avenue of approach. 10/
Some have mentioned that cutting the road M14 could be one of Ukraine’s goals, as it would complicate Russian logistics. I would see it more as a small setback for the Russians, but they could still supply their troops using other, slightly longer routes. 11/
From the satellite images, we can see that Russia is also prepared to defend the area beyond Krynky, including the M14. Even half a kilometre long trench can be seen, among other defensive positions. 12/
Ukrainian efforts have been mostly focused on lighter infantry operations. No heavier Ukrainian equipment has been seen in Krynky, as a mechanized offensive would require bridges over the Dnipro river or at least a larger Ukrainian controlled bridgehead. 13/
Bringing mechanized units over the river and supplying them would eventually become a difficult task, as Ukraine would lack air and fire superiority, especially when Russia would decide to shift its focus more decisively to the area due to increased Ukrainian activity. 14/
The end goal of Ukraine is unclear. At the moment they're able to tie certain Russian forces to the area, and they have conducted successful artillery & drone strikes against targets deep in the rear. 🇷🇺 losses here are significantly higher than 🇺🇦. 15/
Still, the fight consumes and ties Ukrainian resources as well. Fighting an attritional battle in a location like Krynky is difficult, and some reports and interviews indicate that even though Ukraine isn't losing a large amount of equipment, it’s continuously losing men. 16/
When looking at the exchange ratio, it’s also a good question whether keeping Ukrainians in the ruins of Krynky is absolutely beneficial for Ukraine. Could it still be possible to cause a decent level of damage to the Russians, without the arduous bridgehead? 17/
The objective may also be political – to show that Ukraine is still able to continue offensive operations in significant directions, even if greater goals do not seem to materialize. Without breakthrough attempts in Zaporizhzhia, the future in Krynky does not look bright. 18/
One reason we don't see more significant efforts against the bridgehead may be that the Russians don’t prioritize it very highly. As the current units are able to control the situation with seemingly acceptable losses, they might feel that no larger operations are needed. 19/
I also don't think the Russians have specific master plan to attrit the Ukrainians in the village. The reportedly weak level of Russian coordination and competence against Ukraine’s rather effective defence allow the situation to continue without a quick end in sight. 20/
Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to map and analyze the war. Our interactive map can be found here.
Images in this thread are roughly two weeks old, as I don't want to endanger Ukrainian OPSEC in any way. 21/21
Some additional images for geolocators! Your work is priceless, and as I'm using geolocations as a part of my analysis, I want to give something back.
I also want to thank @wihurinrahasto for making threads like these actually possible. External funding is very important in order to continue our work.
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It has been claimed that this is a video of North Korean infantry attacking in Kursk. A few of points:
Firstly, this isn't a human wave assault, as there's no fighting. Around 40 soldiers can be counted, which means it's likely a platoon on the move through an open field. 1/
The video quality is low, I can't visually confirm if they are NK soldiers. However, it's possible they are, as they should currently be in the area.
Other videos of similar actions from nearby locations have also been posted on Telegram channels.
All the videos posted today show roughly three platoons on the move at different times of day. The videos do not provide enough information of the tactics these units use in combat, so I can't comment on that unfortunately. Here's where the movement happened. 3/
It seems that the Ukrainian defenders in Hannivka may be encircled, as Russians pushed deeper into Uspenivka.
Based on geolocated footage and both Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, a Ukrainian detachment of unknown size has been cut off from the rest of the troops. 1/
The situation in Hannivka has reportedly been difficult before already, as the enemy could threaten the thin supply lines from both sides. Despite the obvious threats the Ukrainians seemingly were not given the order to retreat from the dangerous positions. 2/
Reportedly, efforts are underway to relieve the defenders, and the current situation is unclear. Succeeding in this operation depends a lot on how well the Russians are able to entrench themselves in Uspenivka. 3/
This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/
Already at the end of the summer, the situation seemed to be developing in a worrying direction. Especially in August, the Russian gains were relatively large, and it did not seem like the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk would significantly slow down the Russians. 2/
During the fall, while making progress in Ukraine, Russia also conducted several counterattacks in Kursk. Ukraine lost the western flank of the salient, while also losing positions in the east. Between September and November, Ukraine didn’t advance significantly in the area. 3/
Russia is advancing, but it’s also spending significant amounts of men and material in the process.
In this thread I’ll take a look on two important directions: Kurakhove and the concerning developments there, and the politically motivated Kursk counteroffensive. 1/
In Kurakhove, the Russians are closing in from almost all directions. They have entered the eastern part of the town, and it seems a couple of large Ukrainian fortified strongpoints have already fallen. Some troops also entered the village of Dalne. 2/
The latest advances are threatening the Ukrainian positions between Uspenivka and Yelyzavetivka. It’s unclear how firmly the Russians have been able to establish a presence in Dalne, but the fact that they’re getting there at all so quickly, is already an issue. 3/
The Russians recently launched a large offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk, on a 70 kilometers wide front.
The attack has breached Ukrainian defences in just a few days in many areas, and there can be some dangerous developments ahead, which I’ll discuss in this thread. 1/
The operation has two main focus areas, the Selydove-Kurakhivka area and the southern direction, where the enemy is currently advancing in the area between Shakhtarske and Bohoyavlenka. Both directions have their own problems and threats. 2/
In a short timeframe, Ukraine has very likely lost Selydove (over 21 000 pre-invasion residents), which is the largest city Russia has captured since the fall of Avdiivka. Simultaneously Russians also captured Hirnyk (10 000 pre-invasion residents). 3/
Recently, it has been said that North Korean troops in Ukraine are a sign of Russia’s weakness.
While this arrangement naturally proves once again that the war isn’t going as Russia initially wanted, I view this as a practical solution rather than just simple weakness. 1/
Russia's problems shouldn't, of course, be downplayed.
You don’t have to be Clausewitz to understand that the quick operation to subjugate Ukraine isn’t going very well, when you hear the words “North Korean troops will likely soon arrive in Kursk to help Russia”. 2/
However, this isn’t a relevant way to approach the matter. From Russia’s perspective, there are many benefits in cooperating with the North Koreans.
North Korea has already had a significant impact on Russia’s capabilities by selling them millions of artillery shells. 3/