A 🧵on #IRGC missile strikes in Iraq’s Erbil, Syria’s Edlib and Pakistan.
1/ The IRGC says they avenged last month’s terrorist attacks in Kerman and Sistan-Baluchistan, claimed by ISIL and Jaish Al-Adl.
As 🇮🇷 saw Israel behind the attacks, it states to have hit 🇮🇱 assets, too.
2/ The #IRGC fired 24 missiles to Kurdistan and Idlib.
Four medium-range Kheibar Sheken missiles flew 1,280km.
The missile is designed to reach distances as far as 1,450km.
The Idlib strike was a direct warning to #Israel that Iran’s precise missiles have reached its vicinity.
3/ Thirteen missiles fired from #Iran’s Khouzestan and Kermanshah to Jabal Al-Samak in western Idlib, Syria.
The region is said to host Tahrir Al-Sham and Turkistan Islamic Party. They allegedly train ISIL Khorasan (ISIL-K), that claimed responsibility for Kerman double blasts.
4/ Missiles that hit Kurdistan were launched from kermanshah and West Azerbaijan.
The IRGC asserts it pounded “a MOSSAD center”.
But it seems Peshraw Majid Agha Dizayee, the Kurdish businessman whose property came under fire, was killed because of his business activities.
5/ Iranian media allege “Peshraw Dizayee had ties with Mossad”.
We know his main activity was Construction.
I searched a bit more and found that OIL, NATURAL GAS and SECURITY were among his activities, too.
🚩And that brings us to the main point.👇
6/ On November 1, Iran’s leader Ali Khamenei urged regional countries to stop oil and food supplies to Israel. His call fell on deaf ears.
In late November, Raisi cancelled a trip to Turkey, bcz Tehran expected Ankara to reduce business with Israel in the shadow of war in Gaza.
7/Iranian media claim Peshraw Dizayee and dead businessman Karam Mikhail, were killed for their ties with 🇮🇱 Mossad & Dizayee provided logistical support for Mossad agents and activities in Kurdistan.
But the real reason for killing him could be his oil & gas exports to Israel.
7/ IF we consider Houthi attacks on vessels/tankers en route to Israel as part of the strategy to impose oil, gas and food boycott on Israel, then the #IRGC’s strike on Peshraw Dizayee would be meaningful in that context and a part of the broader boycott plan.
8/ Therefore, I see #IRGC’s missile strikes as an initial warning to all oil exporters, specially private companies dealing with Israel, that their assets could be the next target and anytime anywhere in this region, they might come under a sudden attack from sea, land or air.
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1- Iran’s Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei refuses pressures putting on him by some!! inside the establishment to accept Trump’s humiliating conditions, warning: “if the Americans kick off a war this time around, it will be a regional war (not restricted to Iran)”.
2- We’ve heard some individuals in the country have been insisting on the Ayatollah to accept some terms to prevent a war.
Larijani, Pezeshkian and Araghchi have been advocating “diplomatic path”, claiming it is possible to reach a deal with Trump.
3- Ayatollah Khamenei’s warning doesn’t simply address “the Americans”, but regional countries specially “Saudi Arabia”, after reports suggested that Saudi Defense Minister in the U.S. has encouraged Trump to weaken Iran through strikes.
1- The entire plan FAILED, bcz protesters didn’t receive nationwide support. Hardly 500,000 out of 86.6 million attended the demos in Tehran, elsewhere. That made the protest organizers to restore to the usual method: ferocious violence.
2- Watching the @BBC on Jan 9, @AFathollahNejad called the protests “the most existential threat” to the Islamic Republic in its history.
He was wrong in his assessment: it was the “most aggressive violence” in 47 years, except early 1980 and atrocities committed by MKO cult.
3- violence in Rasht, Mashhad, Tehran, Ilam, Lorestan & Kish island was unbelievable:
Banks, police stations, metro stations, fire engines, traffic signs, clinics, judicial offices, govt buildings, chain stores, schools (250), mosques (350) were attacked, ransacked or torched.
Few thoughts about recent Iran protests, the crackdown and the death numbers:
Why anti-establishment demonstrations which were devastating in nature and ferociously violent failed AGAIN to reach their goal of regime-change?
A long thread: 🧵
1- Protests started against economic turmoil and market instability. But AS USUAL rioters and foreign-backed mobs (per state media) highjacked the demonstrations and diverted them from their normal trend into sheer state of fear and violence.
1- It is now clear that Pezeshkian’s government is a big failure, and no one can rescue it. Therefore, Pezeshkian’s unity partner, Ghalibaf, on Sunday threw down the gauntlet, warning Pezeshkian “either change some ministers or wait their impeachment.”
2- That was somehow unprecedented as Majlis Speaker Ghalibaf vigorously helped Pezeshkian’s ministers to receive votes of confidence.
Ghalibaf warning is coming amid economic turbulence, rising cost of living, hiking prices and the rapid depreciation of Iranian rial against $.
3- The Majlis has already asked Pezeshkian to replace ministers of Road and Urban Development, Oil, Energy and Social Welfare.
Lawmakers also want an acceptable response from the Central Bank’s Governor who can’t be questioned by the Majlis.
۱- دوره ای روابط جمهوری اسلامی با سودان خیلی خوب بود، حتی بعد از کودتای عمرالبشیر علیه صادق المهدی و حسن الترابی که دوستان ایران بودند، تغییری در سیاست ایران رخ نداد. امریکا و اسراییل «مدعی اند» ایران از طریق سودان، مصر و صحرای سینا به فلسطینی ها و حماس سلاح می رساند👇
۲- به هرحال روابط به حدی خوب بود که علی لاریجانی ۲ بار به سودان سفر کرد و وقتی عمر البشیر توسط دادگاه جنایات جنگی لاهه به جنایت در دارفور متهم شد، ایران از او دفاع و اعلام کرد درباره این حکم همکاری نمی کند، حتی از لج غربی ها بشیر را دعوت کردند به کنفرانس سران اسلامی تهران👇
۳- البته ایران همان موقع که بشیر اسامه بن لادن و جهادی ها را بیرون ریخت -بعد از کلی خدمات و ساختن زیر ساخت ها برای سودان- باید متوجه می شد روی بشیر نباید حساب کند اما طبق معمول حساب کتاب نکرد.
نهایتا بعد از اعدام شیخ نمر و شروع جنگ یمن، بشیر که پول و حمایت میخواست جهت عوض کرد👇
1- A day after National Security advisor Ali Larijani visited Moscow and met with Russian President Putin, former foreign minister Javad Zarif tried to sabotage Tehran’s strategic partnership with Moscow and take his personal revenge from FM Lavrov.
2- Zarif’s verbal attack against Russia came after FM Lavrov openly said the controversial Snapback Mechanism -which was launched by E3 in early Oct) was a joint plan set by Zarif and Secretary Kerry. Lavrov said he was “surprised to see Zarif accepted that legal trap”.
3- Lavrov said he believes, “Zarif agreed with Snapback Mechanism in the final stages of talks, because Iran didn’t intend to violate the JCPOA and would not be accused of beaching it; but in reality, it was Tehran that was asked for more concessions after the US withdrawal”.