#Iranpolitics🧵

1- A claim by a sitting lawmaker in Tehran about President Raisi’s death is revealing the extent of rifts and differences that is surfacing within political sections loyal to the Islamic Republic and a crisis of trust that has exacerbated.
2- Sitting lawmaker, Kamran Ghazanfari Thursday Dec 12 claimed Raisi and FM Amir-Abdollahian were assassinated in a pot hatched by the US, Israel and the Azerbaijan Republic. “But some Agha-yan (gentlemen/authorities) don’t see convenient to reveal it publicly”.

#Iran_Syria_analysis🧵

1- Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday made some comments about Assad’s fall in Syria.
He didn’t mention Bashar or his father Hafiz by name by acknowledged that Syria was a good friend to Iran specially during the 1980s Iraq war against Iran. 2- Iran’s leader spoke of questions and doubts that have surfaced among Iranians about Iran’s ties with Syria, why they didn’t help him, etc and justifies Iran’s support for Assad in 2011 as to fight DAESH terrorism.
The problem with his argument is that DAESH appeared in 2014.

#Iran_Syria🧵
1- FM Abbas Araghchi in a TV appearance says almost all Arab states and Syria neighbors are worried about the events there and a certain Arab country is so furious about what happened.
(He doesn’t name the country, but I assume he means Saudi Arabia) 2- my personal view is:
Regional Arab countries worry about Syria’s events for 2 reasons:

- fears of Türkiye’s ambitions and meddling in their affairs, specially with regards to their shared 19-20th century history and Ottoman rule of their lands

- RE-emergence of DAESH

A🧵
Few thoughts about Iran’s policy reg. events of Syria in the last 2 weeks:

1- many think Iran’s policy-makers were confused by the fast pace of events but I personally think Iran’s reluctance wasn’t out of confusion but internal divisions and disagreements over what to do. 2- It seems that policy-makers, advisors and even the IRGC officers had split into 2 camps:

- one group thought it’s Iran’s duty to protect Assad and assist him one way or another.
- the other group (Pezeshkian & his men included) believed Iran should avoid involvement in Syria.

#Irannews🧵

1- In Iran every single matter has the capacity to turn into a political feud:
The latest is scheduled blackouts that started few days ago, as the government claims it ordered 3 major power plants in Karaj, Isfahan and Arak to stop burning Mazut to produce power. 2- Pezeshkian’s government claims the ban on burning heavy-oil in 3 power plants is due to health issues and air pollution that happens every fall in Tehran and major cities.
Iran has 14-15 power plants to produce electricity and the ban is implemented in 3 of them for now.

#Iran🧵
1- Relationship between Iran and Germany is at one of its worst times with German ambassador leaving Tehran and Germany’s foreign ministry closing Iranian consulate offices in Hamburg, Frankfurt and Munich. The embassy is open but 32 Iranian diplomats are told to leave. 2- The relationship already soured over several issues incld. Germany’s unwavering support for Zionist genocide in Gaza.
But Iran infuriated Berlin after executing Iranian-German terrorist Jamshid Sharmahd.
He was found guilty of killing 14 injuring 200+ in a 2008 Shiraz blast.

A 🧵

1- A video simulation of the Zionist regime’s offensive against Iran made by the Young Journalists Club sheds light on the unknown aspects of the strikes.
I assume the info used in this video was given to YJC by Iranian military sources.
2- The video states 100 🇮🇱 jets started the offensive from 3 airfields, with F-16s supporting other war planes. The U.S. extensively backed up Zionists air force with reconnoissance drones, air tankers.
U.S. bases in Persian Gulf Arab states jammed Iranian radars & satellites.

#Iraninternalpolitics🧵

1- Head of the government Masoud Pezeshkian is going to face a standoff with Conservatives at the Majlis over one certain person:
Pezeshkian’s deputy for strategic affairs, Javad Zarif better known as the spoiled kid (of the nezam). 2- The standoff came after Pezeshkian -who was sworn in to be loyal to the constitution and Iranian laws- broke the law himself by appointing Zarif -the spoiled kid- as his deputy for strategic affairs, a post with great deal of funds, without being responsive to the Majlis.

Few thoughts about Iran’s second missile strikes against the Zion regime: A 🧵

1- Israel is like an injured serpent. And we are awaiting it to strike back against Iran. We know it could be a fierce attack.
All refineries, nuclear facilities, power plants are on alert for now. 2- For attacking Iran, the Zion regime needs to fire missiles or drop bombs from jets; they have to use the airspace of regional countries to reach Iran. FM Araghchi says “We sent messages to third parties, they’ll face a harsh response if they support Israel in op against Iran”

رشته #نظرنامحبوب

۱- با اعتراف آقایان پزشکیان و‌ مطهری مبنی بر فریب خوردن ما (این ما کیه؟) از امریکا در جریان انتقام هنیه، موجی علیه بچه ننر -به عنوان مسئول فریب خوردن مقامات کشور و عدم پاسخگویی به رژیم صهیون که منجر به فاجعه شهادت نصرالله شد-شکل گرفته است.👇 ۲- از سویی اصلاح‌طلب‌ها به رهبری داوری موجی را برای مسئول دانستن رهبر آغاز کرده اند که بدون اذن او اتفاقی نمی افتد. یعنی اگر ایران‌ جواب ترور هنیه را نداده با اطلاع و ‌تایید اقای خامنه ای بوده است.
در حالی که اقا در ۱۱ مرداد در پیامش وعده مجازات سخت و خونخواهی هنیه را داده بود.👇

1/ Iranians - or better to say Pezeshkian and his new govt officials- now understand the U.S. pooled the wool over their eyes after Haniyeh’s murder when they insisted on the leadership to postpone a retaliation in return for a truce in Gaza. 2/ Head of the government, Pezeshkian, at the cabinet session, confesses: “the U.S. and Europeans’ claims that they would enforce ceasefire in Gaza, if Iran didn’t punish Zionists; were sheer lies.”
“Giving time to these criminals encourages them to go on with crimes”, he says.

1/ In the absence of the government media team’s transparency on releasing the text or the audio file of Pezeshkian’s answers to American press, the head of 🇮🇷 government is under criticism for his gaffes, simplistic approach & naive remarks about Iran and the region:

A 🧵 2/ in the only audio we’ve heard, Pezeshkian speaks of disarmament:
“We are ready to put aside all our weapons in the condition that Israel does so”.

He knows Israel never does that, and Iran requires weapons not only to counter Israel but to counter the United States.

1- Hidden tension is brewing beneath the normal relationship between Russia and Iran: A 🧵

Iranian media outlets + X since last week are full of reports, comments and analyses about Iran-Russia’s relations in the wake of Russia’s support for establishing the Zangezur corridor. 2- During Putin’s recent visit to Azerbaijan, FM Lavrov accused Armenia of posing an obstacle to the esaliahment of the #Zangezur corridor which would connect mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan enclave in Armenia.
Lavrov said 🇷🇺supports 🇦🇿 in its quest to establish that route.

#Irannews🧵
1/ The consequence of Hezbollah’s independent operation against the Zionist regime:

Chairman of Iran’s General Staff of the Armed Forces says Iran, too, will act independently in seeking its revenge from the occupying regime over Haniyeh’s assassination.👇 2/ We can now assume the probability of a joint operation by Iran-Houthis-Hezbollah against #Israel is little.
Hezbollah already conducted its revenge operation after it saw Iran is wasting time and dragging its feet (for whatever the reason).

#Irandomestics🧵

1/ Head of government, Masoud Pezeshkian finally presented the list of his cabinet to the Iranian majlis on Sunday.
It is notable that unlike his predecessors, Pezeshkian didn’t appear in the parliament and sent VP for parliamentary affairs to submit the list. 2/ The list of Pezeshkian’s nominees bears 19 names.
2 ministers from Raisi’s cabinet are on the list:
- Ismail Khatib, Minister of Intelligence
- Abbas Ali-Abadi: Raisi’s Trade Minister now nominated for Ministry of Energy.

🔸Eslami already re-appointed as atomic chief

#Irannews🧵

1/ Iran’s foreign ministry has invited foreign ambassador & heads of diplomatic missions in Tehran for a meeting.
The meeting most likely was about the imminent retaliatory operation by #Iran and allies against the Zionist regime. 2/ The Iranian TV also has a news package on every major news bulletin about the necessity of responding to #Israel.
Iranians who talk to the reporters nationwide, urge the Islamic Republic to “teach Israelis a lesson that will never forget it”.

#Irannews🧵

1/ Congratulatory messages are sent to new head of the Iranian government, Masoud Pezeshkian.
Messages are from Syria, Saudi Arabia’s king and CP, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, the UAE, Qatar, China, Russia, India, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Venezuela. 2/ On the internal side:
Ayatollah Khamenei congratulates Pezeshkian for his win, hopes that “he continues Raisi’s path and uses numerous capacities of Iran”

🔺This means he expects Pezeshkian to follow the major policies the Nezam had mapped out and Raisi was implementing.

#Irannews🧵
1/ Tehran is angry with the IAEA’s DG Grossi and the E3.
Iranians now think the UK, Germany and France are pressuring Iran through the IAEA in order to assist Iran’s pro-West, pro-JCPOA political faction win the June 28 presidential election. 2/ Iran’s permanent mission to the IAEA states that Iran is not obliged to respond to the IAEA’s questions, specially given that those questions are raised based on fabricated and baseless documents provided to the IAEA by Israel.

#Irannews🧵

1- Head of Iran’s Central Air Force Base Khata al-Anbiya , reveals the April 13 retaliatory strike on Israel was a decision made by Ayatollah Khamenei.
Gholam-Ali Rasheed calls Kahmenei’s decision as “a strategic decision that surprised all enemies of #Iran.” 2- The top IRGC officer Gholam-Ali Rasheed says the most important achievement of Iran’s April 13 retaliatory operation was that “it exposed #Israel is nothing but a paper tiger”.

#Irannews🧵

1- Iran’s Leader Ali Khamenei -without naming Saudi Arabia- says normalization with Israel won’t resolve the decades-old problem is West Asia. He states the only solution is the return of Palestine to its original Muslim, Christian and Jewish populations. 2- Head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency says Tehran’s cooperation with the #IAEA continues in the framework of the NPT.
Mohammad Eslami adds 130 IAEA’s inspectors can visit Iranian nuclear sites.
Eslami had previously put the number of inspectors at 120. 👇

#Irannews🧵
1- Iran is on an offensive mode:

🇮🇷 national security advisor warns the countries who are hosting #Israel’s cybersecurity centers or are working with Israeli-made cyber systems that they will face a problem in future, without further explanation. 2- In reaction to new sanctions on Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei says: “sanctions aim to push Iran into the wall, but Iran won’t cave in to bullying.”
He refers to some people who advise Iran to get along with the U.S. to resolve the problem. “But US expectations won’t end”, he says.