A thread 🧵

Few thoughts about Ayatollah Khamenei’s remakes about enrichment and talks with the U.S.

1- He literally TORPEDOED efforts by Pezeshkian, Araghchi and the Reformist- Principlist UNITY cult which was pushing for a meeting between Pezeshkian and Trump during UNGA. 2- Khamenei says “negotiations with the U.S. under current circumstances will harm Iran and will not benefit national interests”.

He concludes “with the status quo; no honorable nation, no wise politician will talk with the U.S.”
Therefore “No negotiations with the U.S. for now”

#Iraninternalpolitics🧵

1- With the failure of the 🇮🇱 regime’s coup to topple the Islamic Republic, the ruling Reformist camp is now taking out what it had up in its sleeve for quite awhile: “a shift in I.R’s paradigm”.
The theorists of this new plan are : Rouhani and Zarif. 2- Zarif has revealed his plan in an article in FP.
The main point of his argument which he hides under the expansion of ties with neighbors and regional partnership is: “renewed dialogue with the U.S. and EU”.

That’s while 20+ yrs of talks with the US-EU led to a war.

#Iran

1- National Security Advisor, Ali Larijani says “for now Iran isn’t interested in resuming relations with Damascus, because it is a mess in Syria and Israel is meddling there… Iran’s decision to resume diplomatic ties depends on the behavior of the rulers of Damascus”. 2- Ali Larijani mildly criticizes Pezeshkian and people around him for insisting on holding talks (with the U.S. and the West): “some assume talks are the solution to every problem but when the other side orders surrender or fight, you can’t resolve it with holding talks”.

#Irannews🧵

1- A media outlet close to former SNSC’s Secretary -Ali Shamkhani- has reported about “possible changes in some senrior security institutions to pave the way for structural reforms”, without going into further details. 2- Some observers interpret these changes as replacement of current SNSC’s Secretary Ali-Akbar Ahmadian with Ali Larijani.
Ahmadian is the SNSC’s secretary since 2023.
Larijani once served the same post from 2005 to 2007.

#IranAnalysis 🧵

1- Words suggest the Pezeshkian’s government is trying to bypass the law on “suspension of cooperation with the IAEA” through two tools it has in its hand: the foreign ministry and the Supreme National Security Council- whose chairman is Pezeshkian. 2- Words ALSO say the government’s plan is to accept the UK-Germany-France’s offer to extend start of the SnapBack mechanism for six months.

Though everybody knows it would keep Iran under constant threat and would finally lead to either surrender or another war.

#IranAnalysis🧵

1- While Iran has fundamentally agreed to hold talks with the EU and E3 (🇩🇪, 🇬🇧,🇫🇷) over the so-called Snapback mechanism (the mechanism Javad Zarif denied its existence in the JCPoA); it feels that nothing positive will come out of these talks, either. 2- Iran’s FM Araghchi says his team will be well-prepared for talks with the EU/EU: he sends a letter to the UN Secretary General and President of the UN Security Council, reminding them that the E3 lack legal and moral authority to trigger the Snapback mechanism.

https://twitter.com/araghchi/status/1946990297218453536

#IranUSpolitics🧵

1- Iranians are implying that the Trump administration has sent “messages, requesting them to return to the negotiating table”, that’s per former parliament speaker Ali Larijani and a member of Majlis’s National Security Committee, Ali Khezrian. 2- Ali Larijani reportedly told an Arabic news channel that “Iran is mulling the messages it received from Washington to resume talks”.
Larijani -who was threatened to death by 🇮🇱 on the first day of strikes- however has added: “the issue is we don’t trust the U.S. in any way”

🧵
1- A video’s gone viral from the slain commander of #IRGC’s Aerospace Force, Amir-Ali Hajizadeh in which he speaks about his force’s being cash-strapped with former Pres. Rouhani refusing to pay them.
The video has no date but most likely is post-2018. 2- In the video Martyr Amir-Ali Hajizadeh admits he ordered the sell-out of the lands belonging to the Aerospace Force, to fund IRGC drone program: “each drone that fails and crashes we laugh and say no problem, but inside we cry for the loss of money earned with difficulty”.

#IranIAEA🧵

1- Iran is flexing its muscles in the face of the West specially the US, Israel and E-3 (France, the UK, and Germany) as the parliament ratifies a motion officially ending Iran’s cooperation with the #IAEA. Out of 223 lawmakers, 222 voted for and one abstained. 2- The ratification of the motion is very important, due to the destructive role of the #IAEA, its 130 inspectors and Director General Rafael Grossi had in recent weeks which led to Israel’s unprovoked strike on #Iran.

Israel’s hidden army inside Iran🧵

1- Three days since the beginning of Israeli strikes against Iran, it seems apart from the first 12 hours, that Israeli jets fired missiles into Iranian soil, the rest of the attacks across the country have taken place by Israel’s collaborators 2- This disciplined, small but killer army of Israel has been busy with wreaking havoc inside Iran by launching small surface-to-surface projectiles, suicide drones and planting bombs. It is believed drones are carried out to locations with mainly pickups or small trucks.

#IranIsraelHiddenWar🧵

1- Iranians -unlike Israelis- don’t care about the policy of ambiguity; therefore the Ministry of Intelligence flexes its muscles against MOSSAD, and proudly speaks about the seizure of #Israel’s intelligence, nuclear and military documents. 2- The Iranian Intelligence Ministry says the Israeli documents have strategic, practical, research and scientific aspects, part of which specifically is related to Israel’s illegal and secret nuclear facilities, research and weapons programs.

#Irandomesticpolicy🧵

Few lines about the dismissal of former FM and presidential deputy for strategic affairs: Javad Zarif

1- He reigned last night and today explained the reason for his resignation.
But Zarif didn’t resign, he was respectfully dismissed as he was “illegal” 2- Per an Iranian law ratified in 2022, politicians whose wife or children have dual citizenship can’t be appointed at “sensitive posts, specially in the government”.
Zarif’s children are U.S. citizens. Pezeshkian knew it but insisted on keeping him and even bullied the opponents

#Irandomesticpolitics🧵

1- Finally after 2 months Iranian lawmakers could push Finance Minister Hemmati out of the cabinet.
Main reasons for his impeachment included:

- Increasing inflation (31.6% in Aug to 35.4% in Feb)
- 60 percent devaluation of Iranian rial in 6 months👇

https://twitter.com/fresh_sadegh/status/1896149120177610848

2- Other reasons for Hemmati’s impeachment were:

- Hiking prices of basic goods and commodities
- A dramatic rise in rial-dollar exchange rate (from 1$=50k to 1$=94k) in just 6 months and that was all due to Hemmati’s market policies

#Iran_politics🧵

1- Pressure is piling up on Pezeshkian, to dismiss his strategic affairs deputy, Javad Zarif, who has been appointed illegally and keeping his seat against the law for 6 months.
Today, dozens of people gathered in Mashhad, calling for his removal.
2- Earlier this week another group of protesters gathered outside presidential office in downtown Tehran, asking Zarif’s dismissal.

#IranLebanonTension🧵
1- Iran has so far remained quiet over the events that happened at Beirut’s Rafiq Hariri Airport on Friday when Lebanese interior ministry forces and airport security started searching the luggage, passengers and Iranian diplomats with political passports. 2- Iranian media accuse Saudi news channel Al Hadath of fomenting the tension by spreading fake news that Tehran was sending millions of dollars in cash to Hezbollah via Mahan Airliner.
That prompted the Lebanese to begin searching all passengers and Iranian diplomats.

#Iran_Jonali🧵

1- An Iranian documentary-maker on Instagram has posted his memoirs about his imprisonment at the U.S. detention facility in Iraq Camp Bucca in 2003. The important part of his post is about a particular Salafi detainee: Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. 2- Per Soheil Karimi’s memoir: “half of 250 foreign prisoners at Section 5-Camp Bucca were Syrians. The majority of them were either al-Qaeda members or Salafis with Muslim Brotherhood leaning. There was a young man (in his early 20s) whom we used to call Ahmed the Syrian.”

#Iranpolitics🧵

1- A claim by a sitting lawmaker in Tehran about President Raisi’s death is revealing the extent of rifts and differences that is surfacing within political sections loyal to the Islamic Republic and a crisis of trust that has exacerbated.
2- Sitting lawmaker, Kamran Ghazanfari Thursday Dec 12 claimed Raisi and FM Amir-Abdollahian were assassinated in a pot hatched by the US, Israel and the Azerbaijan Republic. “But some Agha-yan (gentlemen/authorities) don’t see convenient to reveal it publicly”.

#Iran_Syria_analysis🧵

1- Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday made some comments about Assad’s fall in Syria.
He didn’t mention Bashar or his father Hafiz by name by acknowledged that Syria was a good friend to Iran specially during the 1980s Iraq war against Iran. 2- Iran’s leader spoke of questions and doubts that have surfaced among Iranians about Iran’s ties with Syria, why they didn’t help him, etc and justifies Iran’s support for Assad in 2011 as to fight DAESH terrorism.
The problem with his argument is that DAESH appeared in 2014.

#Iran_Syria🧵
1- FM Abbas Araghchi in a TV appearance says almost all Arab states and Syria neighbors are worried about the events there and a certain Arab country is so furious about what happened.
(He doesn’t name the country, but I assume he means Saudi Arabia) 2- my personal view is:
Regional Arab countries worry about Syria’s events for 2 reasons:

- fears of Türkiye’s ambitions and meddling in their affairs, specially with regards to their shared 19-20th century history and Ottoman rule of their lands

- RE-emergence of DAESH

A🧵
Few thoughts about Iran’s policy reg. events of Syria in the last 2 weeks:

1- many think Iran’s policy-makers were confused by the fast pace of events but I personally think Iran’s reluctance wasn’t out of confusion but internal divisions and disagreements over what to do. 2- It seems that policy-makers, advisors and even the IRGC officers had split into 2 camps:

- one group thought it’s Iran’s duty to protect Assad and assist him one way or another.
- the other group (Pezeshkian & his men included) believed Iran should avoid involvement in Syria.

#Irannews🧵

1- In Iran every single matter has the capacity to turn into a political feud:
The latest is scheduled blackouts that started few days ago, as the government claims it ordered 3 major power plants in Karaj, Isfahan and Arak to stop burning Mazut to produce power. 2- Pezeshkian’s government claims the ban on burning heavy-oil in 3 power plants is due to health issues and air pollution that happens every fall in Tehran and major cities.
Iran has 14-15 power plants to produce electricity and the ban is implemented in 3 of them for now.