Thread by @DaveKluge

I pored over the last 30 years of first-round QB data and found out that drafting at No. 1 overall gives teams overwhelmingly better odds at finding success for their franchise.

My gut told me all top-10 picks QBs the same.

But the data painted a very different picture.

🧵👇

"Success" is an arbitrary term and can have a lot of different definitions, so I chose 5 benchmarks that could indicate "success."

- 4,000+ passing yards in a season
- 30+ TDs in a season
- 80+ career starts
- Winning a playoff game
- Making the Pro Bowl

Here's what I found...

QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.

4,000+ yards: 70%
30+ TDs: 45%
80+ starts: 81%
Playoff win: 70%
Pro Bowl: 70%

Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards.

As you can see in this chart, 8 of the 16 eligible QBs hit every one of those marks.

And while Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray are still too early in their careers to have done so, they will likely join the others within the next few years.

Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.

4,000+ yards: 25%
30+ TDs: 24%
80+ starts: 35%
Playoff win: 38%
Pro Bowl: 33%

Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit.

You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.

Picks 2-10 (34 QBs)
4,000+ yards: 29%
30+ TDs: 26%
80+ starts: 41%
Playoff win: 54%
Pro Bowl: 63%

Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)
4,000+ yards: 26%
30+ TDs: 22%
80+ starts: 39%
Playoff win: 35%
Pro Bowl: 43%

We remember the busts (Russell, Carr, Couch) and the steals (Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Culpepper), but taking the class's QB1 is usually the best practice.

In addition to hitting these arbitrary marks, No. 1 QBs average out better in almost every stat, including W/L record.

Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick.

4,000+ yards: 2.7x
30+ TDs: 2x
80+ starts: 2.1x
Playoff win: 2x
Pro Bowl: 1.6x

This chart visualizes how much safer a QB at No. 1 overall is compared to other first-round QBs.

Again, these are arbitrary marks. There are more and better ways to define "success."

But if you want a QB who will throw for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, make a Pro Bowl, win a playoff game, and start for 5+ years, you're most likely to get that guy at 1.01.