I pored over the last 30 years of first-round QB data and found out that drafting at No. 1 overall gives teams overwhelmingly better odds at finding success for their franchise.

My gut told me all top-10 picks QBs the same.

But the data painted a very different picture.

🧵👇 "Success" is an arbitrary term and can have a lot of different definitions, so I chose 5 benchmarks that could indicate "success."

- 4,000+ passing yards in a season
- 30+ TDs in a season
- 80+ career starts
- Winning a playoff game
- Making the Pro Bowl

Here's what I found...

You might be drafting a fantasy football team for the first time in 2023 this weekend.

Well, I've already done over 500 drafts against real people for real money.

Here's what I've learned, who I'm targeting, and strategies you can implement to draft like a pro! 👇 There's a clear top-6 this year:

- Justin Jefferson
- Cooper Kupp
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Tyreek Hill
- Travis Kelce
- Christian McCaffrey

If healthy, all will provide reliable floors and immense ceilings. You can't go wrong with any of these guys.

This is how I have them ranked.

I’ve done over 300 fantasy football drafts this offseason. Real drafts against real people for real money.

If there’s one piece of pre-draft content that you need before you draft, this is it.

Here’s what I’ve learned, who I’m targeting, and strategies to implement. 👇 There's a clearcut top-5 this year:

- Justin Jefferson
- Cooper Kupp
- Ja'Marr Chase
- Tyreek Hill
- Travis Kelce

I prefer Jefferson, but I wouldn't judge you for taking any of these players at 1.01.

If healthy, all will provide reliable floors and immense ceilings.

I’ve done over 500 fantasy football drafts this offseason. Real drafts against real people for real money.

If there’s one piece of pre-draft content that you need before you draft, this is it.

Here’s what I’ve learned, who I’m targeting, and strategies I’m implementing. 👇 In the first round, there’s a clear-cut top-5. You can shuffle these players around in any order you feel comfortable:

- Christian McCaffrey
- Jonathan Taylor
- Justin Jefferson
- Cooper Kupp
- Ja’Marr Chase

If you have a top-5 pick, draft one of these guys.

A lot of players have seen ADPs swing this offseason.

Here’s chronological list of player spotlight articles I’ve done since March, and how I feel about their new costs. 👇 The writing was in the wall for the Lions to add more target competition for Amon-Ra St. Brown. His best ball ADP has slid from WR23 to WR29 since March. I like him a bit more at cost now, but I prefer Godwin, Metcalf, and London in that range.
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