Thread by @ChemicalFire

If you’re wondering what the hell is happening with Iran and Pakistan, don’t worry. The regimes aren’t going insane, these actions are actually quite rational once you understand that these strikes are actually tools to reinforce each regimes’ internal narratives. 1/

Let’s start with Iran’s recent attacks first. It’s important to under that Iran, as an authoritarian regime, is highly susceptible to internal discord. Accordingly, they act in ways to clamp down on activities and discourse antithetical to the direction of the regime. 2/

Like all authoritarian regimes, internal security is incredibly important to the Iranian regime's continued existence. Iran has three major populations that fuel much of their internal security concerns: the Kurds, Iranian Arabs, and Balochi Separatists. 3/

The Kurdish population, as depicted in the graphic spans from Türkiye in the west through Iran in the east. Iran's security concerns related to the Kurds primarily revolve around the challenges of maintaining national unity and territorial integrity. 4/

The Kurdish aspirations for greater autonomy or independence are perceived as a threat to the state's sovereignty, potentially destabilizing Iran's multi-ethnic composition. Additionally, Iran is wary of external influences leveraging Kurdish movements to undermine 5/

Iran's regional influence and internal stability. These concerns are reflected in Iran's cautious and sometimes repressive policies towards its Kurdish population, particularly in border areas where Kurdish communities are concentrated. 6/

The Ahwazi are an Arab population within the southern Khuzestan province which borders Iraq. Iran's security concerns regarding the Ahwazi Arabs in Khuzestan primarily stem from the strategic importance of the region due to its substantial oil reserves. 7/

The central government is apprehensive about any separatist tendencies or movements among the Ahwazi Arab population that could threaten national unity and territorial integrity. Additionally, there is concern over potential external influences exploiting ethnic tensions to 8/

destabilize the region. These factors drive Iran's approach towards the Ahwazi Arabs, which is characterized by a mix of developmental initiatives and stringent security measures to maintain control and mitigate unrest in this economically vital area. 9/

The Balochi people are a Sunni ethnolinguistic group primarily residing in the Balochistan region of Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, known for their distinct cultural, linguistic, and historical identity. 10/

Iran's security concerns related to the Balochi people stem from the challenges of managing separatist tendencies, insurgency, and cross-border smuggling in the strategically significant yet underdeveloped Balochistan region. 11/

These concerns are compounded by the area's geopolitical importance, bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, and its proximity to key transit routes. To address these issues, Iran employs a dual strategy of implementing stringent security measures to maintain territorial integrity12/

and state sovereignty, alongside efforts to promote economic development and political integration within the broader Iranian state framework. 13/

So how does all this link to Iran's recent strikes? On January 3rd, two explosions rocked a ceremony memorializing the assassination of famous Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in town or Kerman in south central Iran. 14/

The attack killed at 84 and injured 284. This was the deadliest terror attack since the 1979 Revolution. Significance? This was a MAJOR blow against the regime's ability to project internal security. It didn't happen in the hinterlands, it happened at a national monument. 15/

The regime's legitimacy was under attack so they took control of the narrative by immediately placing the blame for the bombing on Israel and the United States, Iran's hereditary enemies. 16/

france24.com/en/middle-east…

The problem is...ISIS took credit for the Kerman attack on 04 January. Despite this, Iran has persisted in its primary narrative, going as far as claiming that ISIS members “only act as mercenaries for US and Israeli interests.” Wait...ISIS?? 17/ atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransour…

ISIS-K (Khorasan Province) is a branch of the Sunni Islamic State (IS) terrorist organization that primarily operates in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Why does the regime need to attach them to the US & Israel? Remember, the regime needs to control antithetical discourse... 18/

ISIS-K is antithetical to the Iranian regime. Their radical Sunni Islamist ideology, which includes strong anti-Shia sentiments, is fundamentally opposed to the Shia governance of Iran. Additionally, ISIS-K's aims directly challenge Iran's regional interests and security. /19

Now let's go back and view the big three security risk populations through the lens of ISIS-K's influence. ISIS-K represents a threat to Iranian security concerning the Ahwazi, Kurdish, and Balochi populations in several ways: 20/

1. Exploiting Ethnic Divisions: ISIS-K can exploit existing ethnic tensions and grievances among these minority groups in Iran. By capitalizing on feelings of marginalization or injustice, ISIS-K might attempt to incite unrest or violence within these communities. 21/

2. Targeting Vulnerable Areas: Regions inhabited by the Ahwazi Arabs, Kurds, and Balochi people, often characterized by less stringent security and socio-economic disparities, can be more vulnerable to infiltration and terrorist activities by groups like ISIS-K. 22/

3. Ideological Penetration: While the ideologies of the Ahwazi, Kurds, and Balochi do not align with ISIS-K's radicalism, the potential for radicalization exists, especially among disaffected individuals or factions within these communities. 23/

4. Cross-border Operations: Given the transnational nature of ISIS-K and the geographic locations of these ethnic groups (spanning across national borders), there is a risk of cross-border terrorist activities or support networks extending into Iranian territory. 24/

5. Undermining State Authority: Any increase in ISIS-K's influence or activities among these minority groups would challenge Iranian state authority, potentially leading to increased instability and security challenges in these regions. 25/

Which finally leads us to Iran's attacks within Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan.

Iran struck targets in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region of Iraq, claiming they were Israeli spy headquarters. 26/

Iran struck targets in the autonomous regions Northern Syria, claiming they were ISIL-linked.

Finally, Iran struck targets in the Pakistan side of Balochistan, claiming they were the militant group Jaish Al-A, which they described as an "Iranian terrorist group" 27/

Two levels of signals from Iran:
1. Iranian population: Israel, the US, and ISIS are being held accountable for the worst terror attacks.
2. Kurds, Balochi, and Ahwazi: Don't act up or face the consequences. 28/

Which finally leads to Pakistan firing into Iran. Iran fired into Pakistan, its regional ally, knowing Pakistan would be forced to respond in kind, all to send a message to reestablish and ensure internal security. Wild. 29/29.

Update: Iranian legislative elections are on 01 March 2024. This adds more context to Iran's narratives, especially "we had to strike within Pakistan without warning to thwart an imminent attack," to increase the perception of decisive leadership against "Israeli threats." 30/29