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Ryan Maue Profile picture
@RyanMaue
Jan 19 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Trash look from the most vocal proponent of the Arctic warming causes extreme winter cold theory Jennifer Francis: she calls Republican voters in Iowa "deniers" for not believing that global heating causes extreme cold in Iowa. Most other climate scientists don't either.
Jennifer Francis is not unique in her bigoted view of Republicans among her climate science colleagues.

However, this type of partisan rhetoric is required to operate within the climate science space to receive promotion, grants, and awards. It's rather ugly.
More than 10-years ago, a weak defense of her theory appeared in the Washington Post.

It was a signal to other early career researchers to back off by questioning the motivation and objectivity of another academic. A real ugly and trash look.

washingtonpost.com/news/capital-w…
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Only a few months later in Jan 2014, Francis helped organize an explainer video with WH Science Advisor John Holdren to directly link the Polar Vortex to climate change as part of the Obama's admin focus on extreme weather to accelerate their climate agenda.

"Truly breathtaking ..." she is quoted.

motherjones.com/politics/2014/…Image
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A think tank CEI asked for a correction to the record and FOIA requested information about provenance of the Polar Vortex video.

However, they were denied and forced to sue in order to recover concealed records. After 2-years the mystery was solved.

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More from @RyanMaue

Ryan Maue Profile picture
Jan 17
Climate scientists (again) blame Arctic blasts squarely on climate change.

*Note that this theory has been discredited, and the evidence/signal actually flipped sign in recent years.

apnews.com/article/polar-…
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The claim is that the "off-the-charts" warm Arctic right now is causing cold air to plunge into Texas.

Except, where does that cold air come from? Image
Read more background here in Science from May 2021.

No evidence ...

Landmark study casts doubt on controversial theory linking melting Arctic to severe winter weather

Models find few links between sea ice loss and weakened jet stream

science.org/content/articl…Image
Read 6 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Jan 8
Not much has changed with this weather model and the impending nationwide climate emergency.

The coldest air still bottoms out at 77°F below normal across Montana by Saturday morning.

How hard and deep will this extreme Arctic cold penetrate southward into Texas? Image
Unfortunately, the forecasts are trending toward the full load of Arctic air dumping on the southern Plains and Texas with a slow but steady surge into Great Lakes.

Next Monday evening looks dangerously cold 🥶

These are "anomalies" -- actual temps are next ... Image
Weather model can certainly change -- hopefully, it warms dramatically rather than go the other way anymore.

But we need to advise what the model output says for anyone who needs extra time to prepare for this extreme cold risk.

Tuesday 1/16

OKC 4°F
Dallas 12°F
Houston 18°F
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Read 4 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Oct 5, 2023
Trying to understand what created the huge September 2023 global temperature anomaly, and we need to look at weather time-scale features substantial enough to affect the overall global temperature.

Since we know the annual cycle pretty well, on average, the Earth is warmest around August 1st and then begins to cool.

However, this year around September 7th, the annual cycle of cooling was disrupted and the actual global temperature increased.

Relative to climatology, this delayed the Earth's cooling by 2-3 weeks.

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Looking back at the El Nino of 2015-16, the typical global cooling until mid-January was disrupted by a significant warming episode. Image
Looking at actual temperatures in the tropics explains what's going on with El Niño and La Niña.

Heat flows from tropics to the poles on Earth. It would seem the well-times onset of El Niño along with other as-yet unknown weekly/monthly time scale features [MJO, Stratosphere, ?] conspire to disrupt the typical annual cycle of warming/cooling, which is not corrected or made up for until the next go round.

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Read 4 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Jul 25, 2023
Climate change caused the heat waves in the U.S. and Europe.

"Virtually impossible"

Are you buying this? How do you know this research isn't "specifically tailored" to achieve a predetermined conclusion?

Is the uncritical media coverage gaslighting?


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Don't expect any capable scientists to bother reviewing this "super-rapid" climate attribution research article.

You're not allowed to critique the arbitrary methods, conclusions, or financial and political motivations of the authors.

So, best to treat this like 'Proximal… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
A critical reviewer would look at the definition of the "event" and wonder what's going on.

Event: Annual maxima of average of string of days

3 distinct definitions "specifically tailored" to respective regions

USA/Mexico: 18 days
Southern Europe: 7 days
China: 14 days… https://t.co/Kjajt0vex5twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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Read 4 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Jul 25, 2023
Without climate change, July's summer heat in the U.S. Southwest would have been "virtually impossible."

I guess that's true if you memory hole 1925, 1930s, 1950s, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2012, 2020, etc. and the rest of the almanac.

https://t.co/pWMfpw4gf0washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
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The Dust Bowl of the 1930s and 1980 stand out as so exceptionally hot, many decades ago, that no one would say without laughing that the recent July in Texas was unprecedented.

I guess politicizing the weather means we have to suspend disbelief and erase the past.

"The past… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The climate researchers did not examine the effects of El Niño but they are sure it doesn't matter.

Also, the research was not peer reviewed because it needed to be publicized so quickly. Image
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Maue Profile picture
Jul 22, 2023
Volcanic estimate 🌋📈

Initial scientific estimates were 50-million metric tons of water injected into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano.

Likely off by a factor of 3.

New research suggests 150-million metric tons or almost 40 Trillion gallons of… https://t.co/BEnfFL2bErtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…


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The 40 Trillion gallons of water vapor in the stratosphere represents an unprecedented amount injected in the stratosphere.

Volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo blast SO2 into the stratosphere creating a cooling climate shroud for 1-2 years.

But, Hunga Tonga had only 2% of the… https://t.co/UWx5CPIBVetwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Global warming caused by Hunga-Tonga is significant.

The eruption of Hunga-Tonga increased the water vapor mass in the stratosphere by 13%, and it will remain there for many years to come.

"The unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga… https://t.co/dxRr2ybSU3twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

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Read 4 tweets

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