Smug Doomposting Publishing House Profile picture
Jan 20 19 tweets 10 min read Read on X
There's something extremely important here that is not being recognized, but those who can read between the lines are realizing it and it's scaring the shit out of people:

Elements of the Davos class **are preparing to defect to the Trump/populist movement.**

A thread🧵:
The world right now is terrifying to the Davos Class. Everything is going wrong, the populists have entered the inner sanctum and are openly saying "you guys are the problem your doom is coming," and there's a feeling the neoliberal intl. system is at the edge of the abyss.

2/x


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The economy — which is what is keeping the US-led international order (i.e., neoliberal order, aka the American empire) afloat for now — is looking BAD. Even if Trump were to *lose* the presidential election, its understood that things would break.



3/x bloomberg.com/news/articles/…


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...and they don't think Trump is going to lose. These people, clueless as they can be, also see the opinion polls and can sense where things are going.

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This sense of impending doom is creating A LOT of panic/denial in Democrat and neoliberal circles.

Election's unwinnable, stealing it again is harder this time because everyone's wised up...

5/x
nytimes.com/2024/01/19/us/…
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....the legitimacy of their system ("meritocracy"/expert rule) is collapsing ("adults in the room" is now a joke), the international environment can't hold (see: Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, the Red Sea, etc), the rainbow coalition at home is starting to tear itself apart...

6/x
Democrats and neoliberals — who've spent 8 years convincing themselves and everyone else that Trump is an impending dictator — are convinced Orange Hitler is about to take over the Reichstag.

And at this point, Trump has said "fuck it, I'll be the monster you think I am."

7/x

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Here's the thing though: while Democrats and progressives screaming that their ship is sinking and the icy water awaits, some of the cooler-headed neoliberal centrists are looking at the lifeboats and thinking "...actually, maybe there's an out here."

8/x
For these Davos class types, this isn't their first rodeo.

These financier/business types lived through the rise of Putin and the purging of the oligarchs, Xi doing similar and imposing "requirements" for companies wanting market access, etc.

9/x


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Now, a good number of them *genuinely believe* that a repeat of that may be in the cards for the US.

Wanting to survive, at the very least SOME of them will be willing to do a deal with the proverbial devil. Especially if he's hinting "sign up now or else."

10/x Image
"And what if I DON'T sign up?" they reason.

"Do I REALLY wanna take a risk being on the Trump admin shitlist? In a populist, anti-elite environment? With an impending recession/depression? In an increasingly multipolar global environment?"

11/x

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Moreover, what if the Trump admin were to start confiscating businesses?

Boeing is already in deep shit because the planes are literally failing. People are getting worried. The anti-monopolist left is already calling for nationalizing and breaking up the company....

12/x

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...what if a Trump admin did EXACTLY this?

Seize/nationalize the company, purge the board of directors (de facto deep state-aligned and/or political neocons), and hand the company or parts of it to politically loyal types like... Elon Musk?

"Engineers are back in charge!"

13/x Image
If Trump did this... who would be next?

Really think about it, especially in the context of a major economic recession/depression (which is implicitly in the cards).

"Who would stop the government from breaking up big banks?" That stuff would be WILDLY popular.

14/x
....and as an added bonus, it would help wipe out their political opposition support base.

The more technocratic economist populists are also salivating at the idea of crushing speculative finance and directing capital to productivity, American First manufacturing, etc.

15/x

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So if you're a Davos class type — in finance, private equity, multinational business, certain think tank/academic/nonprofit types who depend on political connections — your gut instinct is to SURVIVE at all costs.

If that means a deal with the populist, well then...

16/x
Suddenly we have — as at the start of this thread — Blackstone's CEO saying, "Hey... we can't afford another Biden admin. Maybe we should keep an open mind about alternatives..."

Or Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan saying "Actually, Trump WAS right after all..."

17/x Image
It's still early days, but you can see the line of thinking is taking form with some of the cannier Davos types:

"I want to survive and stay in the game, so it's time to dump progressives, neoliberalism, and woke stuff, and play ball with Trump."

Watch this space people.

18/18 Image
Follow-up thread since this one spawned some comments.

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More from @Smug_editing

Apr 14
Short Afternoon update.

Scenario 1 *seems* to be fulfilled.

Israelis are presently indicating that they're "satisfied" with hitting a Hezbollah facility and stating that being able to hold off the Iranian attack is, in itself, a (face-saving) victory.

1/6



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It's indicated that the Israelis had decided on attacking back late last night/early this morning, but Biden impressed upon Bibi the importance of restraint.

(i.e., "STFU you got away with scratches, don't escalate this further bro have you seen the economy?")

2/6
Obviously, we gotta keep watch to see if anything reverses in the next few hours, maybe the next day or two.Bbut for now it looks like things are calming down.

(Israeli War Minister) Gantz's statement was probably the big tell: put revenge aside for now and instead...

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 14
Morning after follow-up on Iran v. Israel.

Short version: Scenario 1 playing out.

Iranians whacked Israelis hard enough to reestablish deterrence, while the White House is telling the Israelis that "if you want a war, get out of my house".

Longer explanation below.

1/x
So now that it's morning in Israel, whats happened?

We have the Israelis claiming like 99% of the drones/missiles/etc were intercepted.

Damage assessments are still coming in, but honestly, news reports indicate relatively minimal damage.

2/x
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That said, the Iranians DID get hits in and the failure of some interception systems to stop some missiles is going to give Israel/Western defense analysts some very restless nights in the weeks to come.

So did Iran's attack achieve nothing?

Well... not quite.

3/x Image
Read 16 tweets
Apr 13
"WW III is starting" discourse is going to ramp up in the next few hours, so here's how things will REALLY work.

Iranian policy since 2020, after the Trump admin whacked Soleimani, has been strategic patience — ie, Iran's unique set of challenges can't be immediately won...

1/x
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...and thus require perseverance until more favorable conditions are present.

More specifically, Tehran knows it cannot outright beat the United States and Israel in a straight-up war if it came down to it.

2/x
Yes, it could (and would!) do horrible damage, probably taking down the US empire in the process.

But the Iranian regime probably wouldn't make out either given the requisite costs, opportunities for dissent, intentions of other actors/ethnic groups, etc etc.

3/x Image
Read 28 tweets
Feb 15
So I have *particular* insight into this issue — for reasons that shall remain unspecified — but can provide a summary as to why this is.

First, Armenia DOES have a powerful lobby, mainly in the United States and *ESPECIALLY* in France. Punches are definitely being thrown.

1/
This is happening not just in the obvious political realm, but also in the intellectual/foreign policy/narrative realm.

Articles and think tank commentary on this are constant, from articles by .@mrubin1971 to whatever Armenian National Committee of America interns write.

2/
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(You also learn the tells of who is on which side. Calling Nagorno-Karbakh "Artsakh"? Armenian. Calling it just "Karabakh", emphasizing international law and thus that this was "occupied territory"? Azerbaijani. etc etc.)

3/
Read 25 tweets
Feb 15
I watch my alma mater, Georgetown Uni., 'cause its a factory of the elite — i.e., a hypercompetitive, careerist, neolib environment overexposed to political trends.

But what happens when progressive demands hit THAT WHICH MUST NOT BE TOUCHED?

A short 🧵

washingtonian.com/2024/02/13/geo…
Right off the bat, one needs to understand that top uni's like Georgetown grant their students disproportionate advantages to their students.

Not just through the classes/professors, mind you, but via resources and connections facilitated by campus clubs.

2/
One example: the Georgetown Retail and Luxury Association. This club can literally bring C-suite executives of fashion brands to speak on campus, and then benefit from these connections.

3/
grlageorgetown.com/teams


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Read 20 tweets
Feb 12
You see a headline like this and think its out-of-touch young people with unrealistic expectations of wealth (thanks social media) who can't cope with the reality of being average.

Thats partially true. But the real issue is they can sense their impending doom.

Short 🧵

1/
Over a decade ago, as a college student, I read this article in the Atlantic. Contrary to the title, it was more concerned with the impact of unfolding socio-economic and technological trends.

Short answer: the middle class was doomed.

2/

theatlantic.com/business/archi…
Longer answer:

The article elaborated on three trends:
1) high-skill workers vs. low-skill workers (honestly, replace skill with "education")
2) Superstars vs. Everyone Else (ie, the superstar effect)
3) Capital vs. Labor (ie, returns on capital > returns on labor)

3/
Read 15 tweets

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