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Smug Doomposting Publishing House Profile picture
Smug Doomposting Publishing House
@Smug_editing
It will happen, and it will happen in our lifetimes.
sally paddles Profile picture 『∫∫』 Profile picture Headless Horseman Profile picture Karloman314 Profile picture Nipun Joshi Profile picture 7 subscribed
Apr 14 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Short Afternoon update.

Scenario 1 *seems* to be fulfilled.

Israelis are presently indicating that they're "satisfied" with hitting a Hezbollah facility and stating that being able to hold off the Iranian attack is, in itself, a (face-saving) victory.

1/6



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Image It's indicated that the Israelis had decided on attacking back late last night/early this morning, but Biden impressed upon Bibi the importance of restraint.

(i.e., "STFU you got away with scratches, don't escalate this further bro have you seen the economy?")

2/6
Apr 14 • 16 tweets • 9 min read
Morning after follow-up on Iran v. Israel.

Short version: Scenario 1 playing out.

Iranians whacked Israelis hard enough to reestablish deterrence, while the White House is telling the Israelis that "if you want a war, get out of my house".

Longer explanation below.

1/x
So now that it's morning in Israel, whats happened?

We have the Israelis claiming like 99% of the drones/missiles/etc were intercepted.

Damage assessments are still coming in, but honestly, news reports indicate relatively minimal damage.

2/x
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Apr 13 • 28 tweets • 9 min read
"WW III is starting" discourse is going to ramp up in the next few hours, so here's how things will REALLY work.

Iranian policy since 2020, after the Trump admin whacked Soleimani, has been strategic patience — ie, Iran's unique set of challenges can't be immediately won...

1/x
Image ...and thus require perseverance until more favorable conditions are present.

More specifically, Tehran knows it cannot outright beat the United States and Israel in a straight-up war if it came down to it.

2/x
Feb 15 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
So I have *particular* insight into this issue — for reasons that shall remain unspecified — but can provide a summary as to why this is.

First, Armenia DOES have a powerful lobby, mainly in the United States and *ESPECIALLY* in France. Punches are definitely being thrown.

1/ This is happening not just in the obvious political realm, but also in the intellectual/foreign policy/narrative realm.

Articles and think tank commentary on this are constant, from articles by .@mrubin1971 to whatever Armenian National Committee of America interns write.

2/
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Feb 15 • 20 tweets • 8 min read
I watch my alma mater, Georgetown Uni., 'cause its a factory of the elite — i.e., a hypercompetitive, careerist, neolib environment overexposed to political trends.

But what happens when progressive demands hit THAT WHICH MUST NOT BE TOUCHED?

A short 🧵

washingtonian.com/2024/02/13/geo… Right off the bat, one needs to understand that top uni's like Georgetown grant their students disproportionate advantages to their students.

Not just through the classes/professors, mind you, but via resources and connections facilitated by campus clubs.

2/
Feb 12 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
You see a headline like this and think its out-of-touch young people with unrealistic expectations of wealth (thanks social media) who can't cope with the reality of being average.

Thats partially true. But the real issue is they can sense their impending doom.

Short 🧵

1/
Over a decade ago, as a college student, I read this article in the Atlantic. Contrary to the title, it was more concerned with the impact of unfolding socio-economic and technological trends.

Short answer: the middle class was doomed.

2/
theatlantic.com/business/archi…
Feb 4 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
But this recognizes that there is a *SIGNIFICANT* distinction between the private sphere in the public sphere.

The latter is entirely political at all levels. Apoloitical engineer brain and design has *problems* handling this reality.

1/ In the public sphere, you HAVE to deal with other people.

Going back to the turnstile example: suppose an engineer designs a system that — somehow — CANNOT be cheated or skipped. You HAVE to pay to use it.

What would happen?

2/
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Feb 4 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The tech elite, especially since the 1996 "Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace", have had this engineer-brain fantasy that they create a "better" world separate from this one (which is dirty, corrupt, imperfect, kept behind because of small-thinking, etc).

1/
Image This aversion to the real world has made them incompetent in funny ways.

Example: for the past decade these billion-dollar, nation-changing companies have failed to convince, influence, or change the Menlo Park city council so they can build employee apartments.

2/x
Jan 27 • 26 tweets • 7 min read
So this taps into an important debate that politicians, the media, the expert class, etc. all avoid like crazy and is fundamental to all debates relating to the future of the United States:

What matters more: raw power or maintaining a republican character?

1/
Image If you want to wield power at the international level as a nation-state, you need to centralize power. It's a prerequisite for empires especially.

The obvious trade-off is that such centralization of political/economic power means... you're no longer a democratic republic.

2/x
Jan 27 • 20 tweets • 6 min read
So I'm *cautiously* — emphasis on the word — enthusiastically about some of these proposals for a simple reason:

They'd help address the federal government's "distribution-of-power" while simultaneously DE-concentrating economic power.

(a short 🧵) Understanding what I'm about to argue requires requisite knowledge of the current "real selectorate" problem. So if you haven't read my previous thread on the issue, do that first.

2/x
Jan 20 • 40 tweets • 13 min read
So my recent thread blew up (ugh), but a bunch of people DM'd me to express "concern" or confusion on the point below.

Including variations of "BUT IT WOULD BE UNCONSERVATIVE IF TRUMP DID THIS!!"

Actually, no. And historically speaking, it's extremely likely to happen.

A 🧵: Image To understand this, we need to get how politics *REALLY* works. This means diving into selectorate theory.

Yeah, I know, political theory can be extremely mind-numbing and dense stuff, but trust me, it matters.

So let this anime pfp poster try to make it easy for you.

2/x
Jan 20 • 19 tweets • 10 min read
There's something extremely important here that is not being recognized, but those who can read between the lines are realizing it and it's scaring the shit out of people:

Elements of the Davos class **are preparing to defect to the Trump/populist movement.**

A thread🧵: The world right now is terrifying to the Davos Class. Everything is going wrong, the populists have entered the inner sanctum and are openly saying "you guys are the problem your doom is coming," and there's a feeling the neoliberal intl. system is at the edge of the abyss.

2/x


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Oct 20, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The U.S. right now is ruled by a regency council. The president is just a puppet; the DC establishment completely lacks a viable and competent successor to sit on the throne.

But now, we've hit the crisis point where the regency council can't manage the empire's rapid collapse. Image For all intents and purposes, the regency council and ancien regime KNOWS that we're uncomfortably close to revolution breaking out. But they have no good options.

Worse, they're trying to appeal to their old legitimizing basis ("meritocracy"), which no one believes anymore. Image
Jan 31, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
What's fascinating about both this image and the reactions we're seeing is that it's all a mirror image of liberal progressive behavior: a demand for the *equitable distribution of status and prestige*. These people think -- rightly or wrongly, doesn't matter -- that they have the will the power. *If the conditions allowed it* they'd be space pioneers exploring new worlds, or whatever. So the bone of contention here isn't the will to power.
Jan 30, 2023 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
4chan has discovered voice AI and is using it to put out bangers.

A curated selection follows. Tucker Carlson interviews Amy Rose about her obsession with Sonic the Hedgehog for almost 7 minutes.
files.catbox.moe/et8y3t.mp3 Image