Here's one of the most disturbing images I've seen in some time.
2- Zoomed in. The red pin is the Thwaites Glacier. I drew a red line around the Thwaites Tongue. It's the part of the glacier that is not over land, but over the ocean where most of the calving takes place.
3- This is a view from 2019. The important piece here is the Eastern Ice Shelf, which you can see is greatly eroded in the above images.
4- This is a series of satellite images of the region I just created. Notice how the Eastern Ice Shelf is breaking up.
5- This could have been expected given the crevasses forming in prior years, which indicates stress in the ice.
6- "Ice shelves do not contribute directly to sea level rise when they break up because they are already floating on water. However, ice shelf collapse contributes to sea level rise indirectly because the glaciers that flow into the ice shelf accelerate."
7-7 "If the Thwaites Glacier collapses and destabilizes the heart of West Antarctica, then sea-level rise jumps to five meters, placing the homes of at least 20 million U.S. people and another 50 million to 100 million people worldwide below high tide."
I've been suspecting that there is much more COVID circulating than we know. The problem is that the scant data that we had keeps disappearing under this regime.
2- One of the few data sources right now is Google symptom searches. Here's the raw data for the US. I had noticed that these were increasing in many states as I was updating my website last evening.
Same data set, but with linear trend lines. I use one month into the pandemic as a crossover to allow time for social services to normalize and to eliminate skewed data during the start. Dotted - pre, solid - COVID era.
3 - 4
Now some calculus. The dotted line is the six prior month derivative, the solid one is the six month moving average of the derivative. The distance above the black dotted line is proportional to the increasing rate of claims.
This is exactly why I find this administration disgusting besides the fact that it is completely tone deaf. However, there is plenty of evidence that this is nothing new for Americans, even though we are all immigrants.
I read In the Garden of the Beasts in the spring of 2016, before the melon felon even had the Republican nomination. I found the parallels very disturbing.
2- When he got elected, I decided to fly to Munich to study the rise of Nazism right after the Inauguration. I wanted to understand how what was probably a normal population of people allowed it to happen. I could have just stayed here.
3- During the trip, I visited Dachau. I intentionally went on the rainiest, coldest day during my trip. I knew it would be nothing like the misery that was experienced there, but I wanted to feel something.
Back when we had good case data early in the pandemic, I could predict the day cases would climb about 10 days out with nearly 99% accuracy. Unfortunately, that data supply and resolution is long gone.
2-
Now the earliest warning I can give is based on my observations of surges occurring when a variant becomes about 50% of submitted samples.