I thought those panicking about an all-digital future for D&D were alarmist. After all, I said to me, WotC makes a lot of money selling books. Why would they stop? Or even de-emphasize them?
The events of the last seven weeks have proven me terribly wrong.
Consider:
Sources tell me that in the December firings at Wizards of the Coast, every person familiar with the business of selling and distributing physical books was laid off/retired.
Friday (1/19/24), WotC posted a number of job openings. Ignoring the usual profit-driven cruelties, such as early-retiring Liz Schuh who had 23 years experience marketing D&D and posting an opening for a new VP of Marketing with only “15+” years of experience...
..there are hints as to where D&D is going.
And to my mind, it ain’t looking good for us grognards and book-lovers. Again, it seems like the management at WotC doesn’t understand what D&D is, or they really wish it was something else.
That same description for a marketing VP says they’ll be “driving successful subscription campaigns.” (Because D&D of course needs subscribers! We all remember the famous Gary Gygax-conceived, “Buy a Beholder” D&D subscription campaign of 1977.)
Subscriptions? Subscriptions for D&D?
Every hint points to the following: Hasbro wants D&D to be a digital product funded by a subscription service.
Oh, and they have not announced a Starter Set to go with the revised 5th (R5) rules, a mistake so big that it really deserves its own post.
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We are watching a bright and special time in the TTRPG industry pass away before our eyes.
Around the start of the 2010s, we saw the dawn of a new golden age of tabletop roleplaying games.
Since then, huge numbers of new players have found the hobby thanks to Stranger Things and actual plays like Critical Role. These new fans discovered a vibrant and thrumming TTRPG industry.
There was the D20 fantasy family of games, dominated by D&D 5E, but rich with other games published under the OGL and the fertile depths of the Old School Renaissance.
Welcome to the most speculative and controversial post in my series thus far!
I hypothesize that as of 1998, 4,007,685 people played AD&D.
Here’s how I interpreted sales data to reach that figure.
I would posit it was impossible to run AD&D without the Dungeon Master’s Guide. Sales of the DMG can show us the maximum number of POTENTIAL DUNGEON MASTERS.
The chart below shows us how many DMGs were sold for the three different versions of AD&D released between 1979 and 1998
In addition to showing the sales collapse between editions, it tells us that a total of 2,023,194 DMGs were sold.
Now, how many of those DMGs were people rebuying the book?
How do sales of AD&D Player’s Handbooks (PHBs) and Dungeon Master’s Guides (DMGs) translate to monster products?
Seems like that answer could help current RPG companies plan product launches.
What does AD&D data from the 80s and 90s say?
For 13 of the 20 charted years, PHBs outsold DMGs which outsold monster products. That pattern suggests to me the following: the vast majority of DMs bought all three releases. However, if we assume four to six players per DM, that means MOST AD&D PLAYERS DID NOT BUY THE PHB.
There are two years DMG sales beat PHB sales, but not by much. There are four years monster product sales beat DMG sales. Several of these spikes are caused by new releases. For example, the DMG was released in 1979 so it makes sense it outsold the PHB that year.
Behold! A mega chart of AD&D 1st and 2nd ed monster products sales!
Products listed in the chart are on the right.
The fact I think most interesting about the chart concerns the 2nd edition Monster Manual, which I have helpfully labeled in hot pink on the chart.
In 2nd edition, TSR replaced hardcover books of monsters with loose leaf papers and three ring binders and called it the Monstrous Compendium. The idea was that players could add to the binder as new monsters came out, but the design of the sheets never made this convenient.
After five years of attempting to make the binder and sheets model work, TSR gave in and released a proper hardcover Monster Manual for 2nd edition. The following year, sales for most of the Monstrous Compendium line were in the negative, with more products returned than sold.
Below you will find the sales numbers of Basic D&D, and then two charts comparing those to the sales of AD&D 1st edition.
For those who don’t know, early in its life, the tree of D&D was split in half. On the one side there was D&D, an RPG designed to bring beginners into the game. It was simpler, and didn’t try to have rules for everything.
On the other side there was Advanced Dungeons & Dragons, Gary Gygax’s attempt to throw a net around the world and then shove it into rulebooks. The game was so detailed that it provided rules on how Armor Class changed depending on what hand your PC held their shield in.
While working on my book #SlayingtheDragon I got a ton of primary source documents containing sales data for D&D. With the book coming out, I've been looking for a way to get that data out into the wide world.
I'm going to start making charts, and simply posting them. If people want the raw data, I can post that too, but obviously, charts are prettier. I'm starting with AD&D 1st ed Players Handbook and Dungeon Masters Guide.
You'll notice a crash in the mid-80s, and then the sales peter out with the release of 2nd edition. The sales point to a fact that I believe hasn't been given enough play in our hobby. Namely, TSR was in a tight spot when Lorraine Williams took over the company from Gary Gygax.