Let’s talk a little bit more about why anti-Trump GOP’ers in Iowa and NH matter:
1st is Iowa a state that is dominated by white evangelicals in the GOP primary, Trumps strongest base giving him 81% of their votes in 2020
1st is Iowa a state that is dominated by white evangelicals in the GOP primary, Trumps strongest base giving him 81% of their votes in 2020
2nd is New Hampshire a state that has a higher than the national average of white non-college educated voters.
These two demographics give us the first real test of how Republicans are making voting decisions in 2024.
These two demographics give us the first real test of how Republicans are making voting decisions in 2024.
AP votecasts telling us fully 20% of GOP voters saying they won’t vote Trump is truly extraordinary & suggests true weakness in the Republican base.
Low turnout isn’t the indicator I think most pundits believe it is - it’s not a sign of low intensity when it’s -5 degrees.
Low turnout isn’t the indicator I think most pundits believe it is - it’s not a sign of low intensity when it’s -5 degrees.
But low Iowa turnout does help us dig deeper into GOP mindset and is more than a representative sample - it’s actually a VERY good massive sample.
Trump getting 50% of the vote is NOT in and of itself a bad sign for Trump, the key data point is that
Trump getting 50% of the vote is NOT in and of itself a bad sign for Trump, the key data point is that
20% of non-Trump GOP voters are saying they won’t vote for him. That is conceivably 15-17% of core Republican voters saying they won’t vote Trump.
Remember in 2020 I coined the term “The Bannon Line” to explain Trump losing only 4-7% of GOP voters would mean he would lose.
Remember in 2020 I coined the term “The Bannon Line” to explain Trump losing only 4-7% of GOP voters would mean he would lose.
The Bannon Line projection in 2020 was correct - Trump actually lost 9% of the GOP vote BUT Biden lost ground with Latinos, African-Americans & other non-white voters.
I warned about this publicly. It remains a bigger threat in 2024 than 2020 but that’s a different thread.
I warned about this publicly. It remains a bigger threat in 2024 than 2020 but that’s a different thread.
New Hampshire will tell us more about non-college educated blue collar workers that are NOT evangelical voters. That’s important because his weakness will be from a different part of his base, economic NOTHING values voters.
The most important thing is not if Haley wins (very unlikely), it’s how anti-Trump her Republican voters are. That tells us everything.
If she gets 40% of the vote there’s a wide election impact between 10,15 or 20% of these Republicans saying they won’t vote for Trump.
If she gets 40% of the vote there’s a wide election impact between 10,15 or 20% of these Republicans saying they won’t vote for Trump.
So that’s the key metric to look at: not if she wins, not how big the spread is between them - it’s how much of her vote is anti-Trump.
The pro-Haley voter is more likely to go to Trump when she inevitably drops out.
The anti-Trump voter is less likely.
The pro-Haley voter is more likely to go to Trump when she inevitably drops out.
The anti-Trump voter is less likely.
The Republican defections in Iowa & NH give us a look at the two critical wings of the GOP coalition.
The Bannon Line will not be the same as it was in 2020 because the coalitions are shifting.
The more Latinos move right the more GOP women Biden needs to go left.
The Bannon Line will not be the same as it was in 2020 because the coalitions are shifting.
The more Latinos move right the more GOP women Biden needs to go left.
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