Thread by @WarintheFuture

Today’s downing of an IL-76 inside Russia is yet another indication of the maturing Ukrainian strike complex, which encompasses long range attacks against ground, maritime and aerial targets to degrade Russia’ strategic war-making capacity. 1/15 🧵

2/ The downing of IL-76 is just the latest example of Ukraine ‘stretching’ its air defence capabilities by forward deploying longer range systems and ambushing high-value Russia air force assets.
wsj.com/world/ukraine-…

3/ Other examples include the Russian A-50 airborne C2 aircraft downed last week, as well as the December ambush that destroyed three Russian fighter bombers in Kherson in December last year. This attacks a key Russian asymmetry over Ukraine & holds airfields in Russia at risk.

4/ Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has developed a variety of capabilities that now comprise a mature and sophisticated strike complex. These include long range missiles, different maritime attack drones, long range UAV recon and strike systems.
navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

5/ Beyond the weapon systems, Ukraine’s strike complex has 4 other elements.

6/ First, Reconnaissance and surveillance. The finding and mensuration of targets is an important part of any strike system. You can’t strike what you can’t find. Ukraine has access to these kinds of capabilities from its allies and from its indigenous systems.

7/ Second, joint planning & coordination. Ukraine use NATO joint targeting doctrine & has a joint targeting staff. Integrated targeting ensures better use of resources, & improved integration of strike operations with strategic and operational objectives.

8/ 3rd, Survivability. To plan & conduct strike operations, Ukraine needs to protect its capability. It has become adept at deception & camouflage operations to ensure that high value systems and the locations of strike aircraft & missiles are hidden from Russian intelligence.

9/ Finally, assessment. Ukrainians undertake post-strike assessments to ascertain whether strikes achieve objectives, and if not, what Russian methods defeated the strike enroute or at the target. This is a key part of strategic learning & adapting Ukraine’s strike complex.

10/ Ukraine's strike complex appears to be maturing just as it is needed most. This year, Ukraine is likely to assume a strategically defensive posture. It allows Ukraine the time to reconstitute its military & mobilise new troops / formations. kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-la…

11/ It also permits time for rebuilding of Western defence industry, and the conservation of resources this year so they can be built up and then expended in 2025 offensives.

12/ However strategic strike alone does not win wars. It is key for strategic success but only if integrated with the array of support, command & close combat activities employed to destroy Russian forces, seize territory and sustain the support of international partners.

13/ Ukraine’s strike complex is an impressive achievement & will be vital to Ukraine’s 2024 military strategy. It will provide breathing space for Ukraine's Armed Forces, help attrit Russian forces and assist Ukraine to achieve some of its strategic influence objectives.

14/ You can read a much more in-depth examination of Ukraine’s maturing strike complex here. End
mickryan.substack.com/p/more-ukraini…

15/ Thank you to the following whose links and images were used in this thread: @CovertShores @Forbes @IAPonomarenko @DefenceU @BBC @KyivIndependent @NATO @WSJ