Inter-political marriages are less common today than interracial marriages!
@jburnmurdoch reports in a great thread how political polarization among young people is driving down marriage and fertility.
How can we maintain marriage and families in such a divided world?
(1/3)
An analysis by @FiveThirtyEight not long ago found that only about 4% of new marriages in the US are between Democrats and Republicans (versus 20% of new marriages that are interracial)!
Given the political divide between young men and women, this doesn't bode well. (2/3)
But looking at @FiveThirtyEight's data, we see a way forward.
A lot of young people in the US are identifying as independent (and they are presumably more moderate and tolerant of difference).
And those independents are succeeding with all types! (3/3)
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An extraordinary admission: Influential economist @TylerCowen just suggested in @Bloomberg that the current demographic trajectory may usher in the end of economic growth.
An important🧵, a dive into two different trends that are both negative for long-term prosperity.
One trend Cowen discusses is a familiar one. As populations age and shrink in population, there will be fewer inventors and fewer economies of scale. This leads to less prosperity in society. (2/11)
The logic of this will be known to those who understand the arguments of Julian Simon in The Ultimate Resource. Simon showed that when you have more of 'the ultimate resource' (people), innovation and growth increase. Fewer people lead to less growth and innovation. (3/11)
The ultimate challenge of our age, here encapsulated by @JeremyKauffman, is bringing together economic vitality and healthy fertility rates. Can we fulfill this "dual mandate" necessary for sustainable civilization? A thread, please share!
As 2023 draws to a close, the divide between economic indicators and fertility rates seems as great as ever. Stock markets soared in 2023, while in most advanced economies fertility rates fell sharply from already low levels.
Obviously not sustainable! (2/9)
This was highlighted in a thread in recently. Worldwide, the data seem to suggest economic success and healthy birthrates are often at opposite poles! (3/9)
Great question: If Poland is Catholic, why is 🇵🇱 fertility so low (~1.2)?
Several reasons: (1) "Workism" above all else, (2) Too many 🇵🇱 young adults live at home, (3) Religiosity is lower among the young, and (4) Rigid social norms.
🧵, especially share if your following is 🇵🇱
First, Poland's religion is "workism" even more than Catholicism. Poles work more hours than almost anyone in Europe.
Workism is a term coined by @DKThomp to describe where work becomes the highest value in a society. (2/8)
The problem of capitalism as the highest ideal is not speculation. In every former Soviet state, fertility collapsed with the embrace of free markets, and Poland is no exception. (3/8)
On this Christmas, a look at collapsing fertility and the fall of the Roman Empire, how early Christians had higher numbers of surviving children, and how the sect of Christianity grew to inherit the Roman world.
And parallels to the world of today!🧵, please share!
Of all the explanations for the fall of the Roman Empire, low fertility may be the most compelling reason.
We know Rome's population collapsed. But this wasn't a sudden thing due to sacking but was continuous over a number of centuries as this chart by @daveg shows. (2/12)
And our best evidence is that low fertility is the cause. Fertility among elite women was less than two births per woman, while replacement fertility (due to high child mortality) was likely above six. (3/12)
How low can fertility go?
South Korea's newest stats show an impossibly low fertility of 0.7 births per woman, 1/3 of replacement. This is a national collapse, and at this point nothing matters more for the future of 🇰🇷 than reviving birthrates. Please share these solutions.🧵
South Korea's crisis is more acute because of the potential for military conflict with the North. Senior citizen volunteers want to help, but expectations for them are low. (2/6)
The fertility map released yesterday by @nonebusinesshey, shows fertility rates in Seoul at a mere 0.54 births per woman. Urbanization is a major cause of low Korean fertility, but intense gender wars are another cause. (3/6)
Articles like this one in Vox today represent the worst kind of gaslighting: "Everything to raise birthrates has been tried, and nothing works."
This is utterly untrue. Consider, no US president has mentioned the low birthrate crisis even once, and the US leads global culture. 🧵
If the first step toward solving a problem is acknowledging the problem, has the United States even taken that first step?
What US political leader or pop star has even broached the topic? It is hard to think of any! (2/8)
In terms of US policy, both the military and the environment consume a large share of both budgets and the mental energy of leaders.
The low birthrate crisis and pronatalism? These are barely an afterthought, even as most of the developed world faces demographic collapse. (3/8)