Jeff Gilchrist Profile picture
Jan 27 41 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Come read about our family adventure with the new game The Haunted Woods created by @stevemwilcox.

"In a far away land, there is a village surrounded by a sprawling forest. Once the forest was lush and vibrant, but it has grown dark and gloomy of late."🧵1/ Image of a haunted forest from the game The Haunted Woods created by Steve Wilcox @stevemwilcox.
"The villagers have taken to calling it The Haunted Woods and all who pass through it become cursed. But pass through it they must, for once every year the villagers need to make a pilgrimage to the The Sacred Well and return with its life-giving waters." 2/
An unrolled one-page web view for this long thread that may be easier to read or share can be found here ( ). 3/
The Sacred Well that our village relies on is unfortunately located on the other side of the haunted woods and so the pilgrimage we each must take has risks and comes with a price. 4/
We had 4 players and each of us had to cross the haunted woods at least once a year to visit the well. Since all who pass through are cursed, we found out that the curse temporarily impacts us and fades into nothing for most, but some are not so fortunate... 5/
For some, the curse is permanent, unable to help the village going forward but also requires additional precious resources to care for the people who become permanently cursed. 6/
Despite the odds being 85% of not being permanently cursed in the first crossing, one of our family members was unlucky and rolled that fate right away! 7/
Surely we would have better luck in the second crossing through the haunted woods. Nope, a second family member rolled the permanent curse and so just like that after 2 trips half of our family was permanently cursed. 8/ Image of a black nickel metal 10-sided die. Image from: https://www.customgamedice.com/dice.asp?sid=4
Not only did we have to spend more time and resources helping these two, they could not contribute to the village and slowly faded out of the minds of other villages not seeing them out in the community anymore. 9/
It turns out being cursed has an impact, even for those who didn't become permanently cursed and the risk increases cumulatively with each curse. 10/
Village leaders knew this was the case but since it was so important for the village to obtain water from the sacred well every year, they did not tell the people and downplayed the risks and impact of being cursed. 11/
Over the next 3 crossings, our two remaining family members managed to avoid being permanently cursed but then on the 6th crossing they both rolled a permanent curse at the same time meaning nobody was left to take care of the family. 12/ Image of a red metal 10-sided die. Image from: https://www.customgamedice.com/dice.asp?sid=4
Thankfully magical wards were eventually created that could greatly reduce the chance of being cursed in the first place which is the only way to be sure to avoid the risk of a permanent curse. 13/
The village leaders however did not want to admit they were wrong and misleading people about the risks of being cursed so they did not implement or require any of these magical wards but left it to the people to do their own risk assessments. 14/
Without the full knowledge and understanding of the risks, most villagers chose not to use any magical wards to protect themselves and the village continued to have a larger and larger number of people who were permanently cursed, impacting the village economy... 15/
While this game is not real, the mechanics actually follow and simulate the cumulative risk of acquiring Long COVID (permanent curse) after being cursed (COVID infection) based on data reported by Statistics Canada on Long COVID. 16/
Sadly 15% of Canadian adults suffered from long-term symptoms after just 1 COVID-19 infection, which increased to 25% after 2 infections, and 38% after 3 infections ( ). 17/www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-…
You might think that an 85% chance of not getting something is pretty low risk, but as our family found out playing the game, it only took 6 rounds for all of us to be impacted with cumulative risk and for half it was after the 1st and 2nd time. 18/
If people get one COVID infection a year, that cumulative risk starts to add up very quickly ( ). 19/
Graph by @DavidSteadson showing cumulative risk of Long COVID by # of infections based on Statistics Canada data ( https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1733246631959507246 ).
Assuming the cumulative risk continues to follow the same pattern as found to date, we had a 60% chance of being permanently cursed in the game on trip #6 through the woods so less of a surprise that it happened so quickly. 20/
By the time you hit 10 infections, the risk is 80% and the younger you are, the more years of infections you will be subjected to and the longer you will have to live with any consequences. 21/
Sadly people should be thinking now about who is going to take care of them if they get Long COVID and can no longer work, and if they are parents, who is going to look after their children if they are no longer able to do so? H/T: @LArtdelInfusion 22/
How would your family do? You can try playing yourself following the instructions here ( ) and a more complete version here ( ).
23/
helloworlds.ca/the-long-covid…
Read more about the real life experience of Dr. Jennifer Hulme, a UHN Emergency physician in Toronto who suffers from Long COVID ( ). 24/uhn.ca/corporate/News…
Isn't it inevitable that you are going to get COVID and possibly Long COVID so why bother doing anything? Considering there is no cure and currently no officially approved treatments for Long COVID but progress is being made, the longer an infection can be delayed the better. 25/
The less infections you get, the less times you roll the dice on getting Long COVID as well ( ). 26/erictopol.substack.com/p/a-covid-upda…
What about those magical wards that help protect people from being cursed in the first place? Sadly, those have been known for the majority of the pandemic but are rarely being used. 27/
Clean air including ventilation and filtration is the ward that can be implemented at an infrastructure level and people don't need to do anything different to get the benefits like we already benefit from clean water infrastructure. 28/
Governments and policy makers need to put the appropriate standards and monitoring in place and then mandate them. 29/
"Learning to live with COVID" means upgrading air quality, now ( ). 30/thegauntlet.news/p/learning-to-…
The COVID-safe strategies Australian scientists are using to protect themselves from the virus ( ). 31/ Click "Show replies" 👇 to continue.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-2…
This thread provides more details about the importance of indoor air quality ( ). 32/
Since the infrastructure is not currently in place and most do not have any control on the indoor air quality of buildings they visit or work, another ward is a well fitting respirator. 33/
Respirators protect individuals who are healthy and help reduce the chance of individuals who are sick from infecting others even in well ventilated places where short-range transmission is a concern. 34/
Yes, respirators actually work, read this thread to learn how ( ). 35/
But do they really work if I can still sometimes smell nasty things while wearing a respirator? Yes, read here to learn why ( ). 36/
But can respirators actually filter tiny viruses and bacteria specifically? Yes, they actually tested these scenarios ( ). 37/
But how do I know a respirator will actually work on *my* face? This thread will help explain ( ). 38/
Do you need a high quality respirator but don't have access? If you are in Canada, you can request free respirators from @DonateMask here ( ). 39/donatemask.ca/request
@stevemwilcox hopefully you didn't mind me adding a bit more to the story part of your game. Thank you for creating it. 😉 40/
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More from @jeffgilchrist

Jan 25
Virus update for Ottawa, Canada (Jan 24, 2024)

#Wastewater levels in #Ottawa are still very high and #Hospitalization *for* #COVID-19 declined somewhat during the holidays so it will be interesting to see what happens now that the JN.1 #Pirola variant has taken over. 🧵1/
Graph of wastewater levels in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
Graph of # of people currently hospitalized *for* COVID-19 in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
RSV levels in Ottawa wastewater continue to decline. Influenza A wastewater levels decreased over the holidays when schools were closed but now increasomg quickly again and still 40% higher than the peak of last year. 2/ Graph showing RSV levels decreased, Influenza A levels very high and low Influenza B wastewater levels in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
Our young children are especially vulnerable to respiratory virus infections. In Ottawa, despite children age 0-11 only making up 11% of the population, they accounted for 38% of respiratory related Emergency Department visits the week of Jan. 14 ( ). 3/ ottawapublichealth.ca/en/reports-res…
Graph showing % of total respiratory related ED visits by week in Ottawa, Ontario with children <12 making up almost 50% of all visits despite being only 11% of the population. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
Read 5 tweets
Jan 20
#Variant update for #Ontario, #Canada (to Jan. 9, 2024)

The BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants is now the majority of sequences at 66%. JN.1 "Pirola" keeps 1st place at 35% with the "birth" of JN.1.4 at 10% in 2nd and HV.1 #Eris at 9% in 3rd. Graph tools by @Mike_Honey_ 🧵1/

Sankey graph (height of each bar is # of sequences for that variant) showing top variants and their lineages over the past couple of months from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSection32240d6b62ba73667e98 )
Graph of top 7 COVID variant clans from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D
Graph of top 7 COVID variants (HK.3, HV.1, JD.1.1, JG.3.2, JN.1, JN.1.2, JN.1.4) from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D )
You can see that JN.1 "Pirola" took off very quickly but in early December multiple descendants emerged with JN.1.4 already taking 10% of sequenced cases, JN.1.2 at 8% and JN.1.1 at 6% so the family is growing quickly and may prevent JN.1 from hitting 50% on its own. 2/ Graph of top 7 BA.2.86.* Pirola family COVID variants (BA.2.86.1, JN.1, JN.1.1, JN.1.2, JN.1.4, JN.2, JN.2.5) from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D )
To give you an idea of just how different the Pirola family of variants is, this antigenic cartography graph shows JN.1 way down in the far right corner, far away from the HV.1 Eris variant (mid-right) that JN.1 just displaced. H/T: @yunlong_cao 3/ Antigenic cartography chart showing the more distance between variants in the graph, the less cross-reactivity between the variants. Each box represents a 2x decrease in efficacy. Image from: https://twitter.com/yunlong_cao/status/1714694253530804588
Read 11 tweets
Jan 14
#Variant update for #Ontario, #Canada (to Jan. 2, 2023)

The BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants is now the majority of sequences at 60%. JN.1 "Pirola" keeps 1st place at 45% with HV.1 #Eris a distant 2nd at 12%, then JN.1.2 at 7%. Graph tools by @Mike_Honey_ 🧵1/

Sankey graph (height of each bar is # of sequences for that variant) showing top variants and their lineages over the past couple of months from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSection32240d6b62ba73667e98 )
Graph of top 7 COVID variant clans from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D
Graph of top 7 COVID variants (JN.1, HV.1, JN.1.2, JG.3.2, HK.3, JD.1.1, HV.1.6.1) from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D )
The one page easier to share version of this thread can be found at ( ). 2/mastoreader.io/?url=https%3A%…
Despite transmission levels being high in Ontario for the past few months and so many people being infected with an EG.5.* "Eris" based variant, JN.1 "Pirola" was still able to come in and take over quickly. 3/ Graph of top 7 BA.2.86.* Pirola family COVID variants (BA.2.86.1, JN.1, JN.1.1, JN.1.2, JN.2, JN.2.1, JN.3) from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D )
Read 12 tweets
Jan 11
How To: Create a Sankey diagram of variants circulating in your area

This thread will walk you through the process of using @Mike_Honey_'s visualization tool to generate a Sankey diagram for your country, province or State.🧵1/ Filtered Sankey diagram view with "Lineage Level" set to 3 and 11 and the Minimum # Samples per Lineage to show" to 60 and all labels shown. Visualization tool was created by Mike Honey @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D )
An unrolled one-page web view for this long thread that may be easier to read or share can be found here ( ). 2/
Step 1: Go to Mike's variant visualization tool ( ). By default, Australia is chosen so you need to select your region of interest. 3/app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
Read 32 tweets
Jan 10
Broad-Spectrum #COVID-19 #Therapeutics and #Prophylactics

An interesting presentation by Yunlong Richard Cao @yunlong_cao talking about their development of broadly #neutralizing #antibodies based on prediction of #viral #evolution ( ). 🧵1/
Slide showing how the immune barrier induced by vaccines and natural infection have been repeatedly evaded by the new COVID-19 variants. Image from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxpJM4gqwec
Read on to find out how their research team developed a neutralizing antibody solution (injection & nose spray) that works with all current variants, including the older SARS1 virus from 2003 and the currently globally dominant BA.2.86 Pirola clan of variants. 2/
Slide showing SA55 available as an injection to act as a long-term prophylactic or therapeutic for immunocompromised people (80-90 day half-life). Image from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxpJM4gqwec
Slide showing SA55 available as a nasal spray that is supposed to be low cost and provide short-term prophylactics (3 sprays per day) with 8-12h protection per spray providing high neutralization in the mucosa. Image from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxpJM4gqwec
An unrolled one-page web view for this long thread that may be easier to read or share can be found here ( ). 3/
Read 32 tweets
Jan 8
#Virus update for Ottawa, #Canada (Jan 8, 2024)

#Wastewater levels in #Ottawa are extremely high and rising again with the JN.1 #Pirola variant now the most prevalent. #Hospitalization *for* #COVID-19 started declining just before the holidays but is increasing again.🧵1/
Graph of wastewater levels in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
Graph of # of people currently hospitalized *for* COVID-19 in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
Our young children are especially vulnerable to respiratory virus infections. In Ottawa, despite children age 0-11 only making up 11% of the population, they accounted for 46% of respiratory related Emergency Department visits the week of Dec. 24 ( ). 2/ ottawapublichealth.ca/en/reports-res…
Graph showing % of total respiratory related ED visits by week in Ottawa, Ontario with children <12 making up almost 50% of all visits despite being only 11% of the population. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
RSV levels in Ottawa wastewater were declining but now seeing another increase, but Influenza A levels increased quickly and are now twice the peak of last year already. Influenza B is now being detected in very small amounts. 3/ Graph showing RSV levels decreased, Influenza A levels very high and low Influenza B wastewater levels in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
Read 12 tweets

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