Jeff Gilchrist Profile picture
PhD Biomedical researcher, data scientist, and finder of large prime numbers. Views are my own. @jeffgilchrist@mstdn.science @jeffgilchrist.bsky.social
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May 22 34 tweets 8 min read
Novavax JN.1 Vaccine Neutralization

Novavax revealed they had selected the original JN.1 variant as their fall booster and recently released neutralization results on non-human primates (Macaques) including a more recent KP.2 FLiRT variant. 🧵1/
Graph of JN.1 vaccine neutralizing response against JN.1 and JN.1 subvariants in non-human primates (macaques)
Graph of Novavax JN.1 Vaccine Neutralization Dose Schedule
Recall that the JN.1 variant became dominant in many parts of the world in December 2023 so by the time the fall 2024 vaccine program rolls out it will be almost a year old. 2/
May 20 84 tweets 21 min read
Indoor Air Quality: Wildfire Smoke & Cooking

With wildfire smoke season here, we all need to think about air quality inside where we spend most of our time. This thread provides multiple examples measuring the air quality inside my home from wildfire smoke and cooking. 🧵1/

Wildfire smoke making it difficult to see buildings in New York City from ( https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/08/air-quality-record-smoke-hazard-wildfire-worst-day-ever-canada-new-york ).
Graph of PM 2.5 Wildfire Smoke Pollution Levels Inside & Outside House with significantly higher levels of PM outside and in garage, and higher levels of PM in unfinished sections of basement with very little PM in finished rooms and those with HEPA filters.
Graph from co2.click portal showing a massive spike in particulate matter (PM) levels past 50 ug/m3 on Christmas Eve. More info at: https://co2.click/
The web version of this article with nice table of contents and easy to share with others can be found here ( ) or ( ). 2/ tinyurl.com/AirQualityPoll…
docs.google.com/document/d/1x0…
Image
May 13 15 tweets 5 min read
#Variant update for #Ontario, #Canada (to May 12 2024)

The JN.1.* +FLiRT variants now make up 27% of sequences and XDK.* which is recombinant of JN.1.1.1 and XBB.1.16.11 is remaining at 5% for now. Graph tools by @Mike_Honey_ 🧵1/
Sankey graph (height of each bar is # of sequences for that variant) showing top variants and their lineages over the past couple of months from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSection32240d6b62ba73667e98 )
Graph of top 7 COVID variant clans from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D
JN.1 #Pirola has dropped to 7% frequency and JN.1.4 down to 9% while KP.3 FLuQE is now most prevalent at 26% while the FLiRT variants are much lower at KP.2 (6%) and KS.1 (5%). 2/ Graph of top 8 COVID variants (JN.1, JN.1.4, JN.1.7, JN.1.8.1, KP.2, KP.3, KS.1) from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D )
Apr 29 12 tweets 3 min read
People are rightfully concerned about the high case fatality rate (CFR) of the H5N1 influenza virus but did you know fatalities from COVID infection (which already spreads easily between humans) with the elderly are as high as 40% ( )? 🧵1/ Virus infection can damage the body, we have seen this with Long COVID and this can happen with other viruses as well such as Influenza causing increased risk of cardiovascular events among other things. 2/
Apr 28 17 tweets 5 min read
#Variant update for #Ontario, #Canada (to Apr. 17, 2024)

The JN.1.* +FLiRT variants now make up 20% of sequences and XDK.* which is recombinant of JN.1.1.1 and XBB.1.16.11 has made an appearance at 5%. Graph tools by @Mike_Honey_ 🧵1/
Sankey graph (height of each bar is # of sequences for that variant) showing top variants and their lineages over the past couple of months from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSection32240d6b62ba73667e98 )
Graph of top 7 COVID variant clans from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D
FLiRT is a nickname for variants with F456L & R356T mutations which seem to provide an advantage over the JN.1 Pirola variants without them. You can see the current FLiRT variants here from @dfocosi. 2/ Chart of BA.2.86* variant convergence and latest FLiRT mutations. Chat by @dfocosi ( https://twitter.com/dfocosi/status/1780183036853690596 )
Apr 20 13 tweets 4 min read
#Variant update for #Ontario, #Canada (to Apr. 9, 2024)

The regular BA.2.86.*/JN.1.* #Pirola clan of variants as you know them are starting to go down in Ontario. This is because descendants are picking up two very useful FLiRT mutations. Graph tools by @Mike_Honey_ 🧵1/
Sankey graph (height of each bar is # of sequences for that variant) showing top variants and their lineages over the past couple of months from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSection32240d6b62ba73667e98 )
Graph of top 7 COVID variant clans from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D
FLiRT is a nickname for variants with F456L & R356T mutations which seem to provide an advantage over the JN.1 Pirola variants without them. You can see the current FLiRT variants here from @dfocosi. 2/ Chart of BA.2.86* variant convergence and latest FLiRT mutations. Chat by @dfocosi ( https://twitter.com/dfocosi/status/1780183036853690596 )
Mar 25 7 tweets 2 min read
PHO is reminding HCWs, even those who have been vaccinated, to wear an N95 while providing care to people with confirmed or suspected cases because they know N95s can prevent infection from infectious aerosols. Works for other airborne viruses as well and non-HCW too. Respirators protect individuals who are healthy and help reduce the chance of individuals who are sick from infecting others even in well ventilated places where short-range transmission is a concern. 2/
Mar 25 12 tweets 4 min read
Virus update for Ottawa, Canada (Mar 25, 2024)

COVID-19 #Wastewater levels in #Ottawa have finally declined significantly but lower does not mean gone as PCR test positivity rates are still at 7.6% ( ). 🧵1/ covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html
Graph of COVID-19 wastewater levels in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html ) RSV WW levels are 7.7x lower than the peak which was much lower than last year. Influenza had much higher peaks this year than last year and while Flu A levels are low, Flu B hit its peak at the beginning of March and is now declining but still above the peak from last year. 2/ Graph of RSV, Influenza A & B wastewater levels in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
Mar 24 8 tweets 3 min read
#Variant update for #Ontario, #Canada (to Mar. 14, 2024)

The BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants has made most other lineages extinct in Ontario. The SanKey shows the situation is now much simpler and almost exclusively JN.1 and descendants. Graph tools by @Mike_Honey_ 🧵1/
Sankey graph (height of each bar is # of sequences for that variant) showing top variants and their lineages over the past couple of months from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSection32240d6b62ba73667e98 )
Graph of top 7 COVID variant clans from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D
Right now the JN.1 and JN.1.4 Pirola variant are still the most prevalent. The JN.1.11.1 variant, its descendants (KP.*) and other FLiRT variants will be the ones to watch as they start growing in Ontario and may be able to escape immunity from JN.1 infections. 2/ Graph of top 8 COVID variants (JN.1, JN.1.1, JN.1.11.1, JN.1.2, JN.1.22,, JN.1.4, JN.1.7, JN.1.8.1) from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D )
Mar 23 7 tweets 3 min read
Public Health Ontario (PHO) using different age categories for updated RV tool data

PHO now combines children <1 into a 0-4 age group while before they had separate <1 and 1-4 age categories which makes a big difference in how the impact of children is perceived. 🧵1/
Graph of Ontario hospitalization rate by age group for the 2023-24 surveillance period. Image from:  http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ontario.html
Graph of COVID-19 average bed occupancy per 100k population by age group in Ontario for the 2023-24 surveillance period. Image from:  http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ontario.html
PHO stopped updating COVID-19 hospital admissions and now provide bed occupancy in their recent Respiratory Virus Tool update which uses different age categories ( ). 2/publichealthontario.ca/en/Data-and-An…
Mar 20 8 tweets 2 min read
A nine year old boy named Matt in Singapore was infected with COVID in January 2024. Unfortunately he developed myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) from the COVID infection and then had a stroke which weakened his left side ( ). 🧵1/ straitstimes.com/life/triple-wh…
From Jan 5 to 16, Matt Aeron Semodio was on ECMO, a life support system that temporarily does the job of the heart and lungs. PHOTO: COURTESY OF MATT AERON SEMODIO’S FAMILY. Image from: https://www.straitstimes.com/life/triple-whammy-nine-year-old-boy-in-singapore-suffers-covid-19-myocarditis-and-stroke After being admitted to hospital, his heart failed and he was required to be put on the most invasive form of life support extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which temporarily does the job of the heart and lungs. H/T: @MeetJess 2/
Mar 3 61 tweets 14 min read
Increased Measles in Canada - Are you protected?

As Public Health crumbles and too few people are getting vaccinated for measles our herd immunity levels have dropped too much and now many people are at risk for a disease we almost eradicated in Canada. 🧵1/ Various symptoms of measles. Fever, Cough, Blocked or running nose, red, sore and watery eyes, spots in mouth, measles rash. Image from: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12991379/Symptoms-measles-runny-nose-rash-tell-apart.html Contents of Post:
* Worldwide Outbreaks
* Symptoms
* How is it Transmitted
* How to prevent Infection
* Damage from Measles
* Measles Depletes Immune Memory
* How long does Vaccine Last
* Breakthrough Infections
* Cleaning the Air

2/
Feb 28 6 tweets 3 min read
#Variant update for #Ontario, #Canada (to Feb. 21, 2024)

You can see how much the BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants has made a clean sweep since January. The left SanKey shows the variant soup from December while the right is now much simpler. Graph tools by @Mike_Honey_ 🧵1/
Sankey graph (height of each bar is # of sequences for that variant) showing top variants and their lineages over the past couple of months from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSection32240d6b62ba73667e98 )
Sankey graph (height of each bar is # of sequences for that variant) showing top variants and their lineages over the past couple of months from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSection32240d6b62ba73667e98 )
The Pirola clan still makes up more than 90% of sequences in Ontario but may have reached its peak for now. The JN.1 variant dropped from 50% down to 38% while its child JN.1.4 is gaining ground above 25%. 2/
Graph of top 7 COVID variant clans from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D
Graph of top 7 COVID variants (HV.1, JG.3.2, JN.1, JN.1.1, JN.1.2, JN.1.22,, JN.1.4) from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D )
Feb 17 25 tweets 7 min read
Particulate Matter (PM) from Showers

After I wrote about PM from ultrasonic humidifiers, people asked how much PM does a hot shower produce? TLDR: Much less for a quick shower, around 12 ug/m^3 compared to 800 ug/m^3 for the ultrasonic. 🧵1/ Graph of particulate matter (PM) levels from a 13 minute hot shower with bathroom exhaust fan running, increasing slightly to 4 ug/m^3 of PM2.5 at end of shower but then jumps to 12 ug/m^3 of PM2.5 after the shower door is opened and PM is released into the room. PM levels back to normal after about 20 minutes of the bathroom door being opened. PM monitor used was Model G from https://co2.click/ But not all PM is equal so look later in the thread for different types of PM that are more dangerous. 2/
Feb 7 6 tweets 2 min read
Yes, and then ask public health how the measles virus can catch a ride in aerosols to help it stay airborne for hours and infect people but somehow no other virus like COVID or respiratory viruses (Flu, RSV) can use the exact same transportation method and fall to the ground. 🤔 Then ask them how Tuberculosis (TB) is transmitted and they will also likely explain airborne transmission. 2/
Feb 5 24 tweets 5 min read
Impact of inhaling PM from Ultrasonic Humidifiers using tap water

Some people were asking since particulate matter (PM) from tap water was soluble how dangerous is it compared to typical outdoor PM, wouldn't the PM just dissolve in the body easily again after inhalation? 🧵1/ Diagram showing the smaller the PM particles, the deeper they go in the lungs. Image from: https://www.safera.com/fine-particles-pm25-are-significant-health-risk/ I'm definitely not an expert in this area but thanks to Greg Kochanski @gpk@pgh.social on M for finding this study "Effect of aerosol particles generated by ultrasonic humidifiers on the lung in mouse" ( ). 2/ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
Feb 3 39 tweets 11 min read
Warning: Ultrasonic Humidifiers with Tap Water Generate lots of PM2.5 Pollution

Since we are in winter and humidity levels are much lower this time of year, I wanted to provide this warning after a recent experience of a colleague of mine.🧵1/ Graph of PM2.5 levels showing 3 large spikes between 150-200 ug/m3, three days in a row at night. It is amazing what you can discover about your environment when you actually monitor it. My colleague recently purchased a particulate matter (PM) monitor for his home & after multiple days of nothing he saw massive spikes in PM2.5 levels every night for three nights in a row. 2/
Feb 1 10 tweets 2 min read
COVID-19 hospitalization data no longer being updated in Ontario Respiratory Virus Tool

After making an inquiry to PHO about why there was so much missing hospital data, especially for Ottawa (see graph of only 3 cases reported since Aug.) I got this response...🧵1/ @Billius27 Graph showing mostly missing data for Ottawa Hospitalization in the Ontario Respiratory Virus Tool (OVRT) is available at ( https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/Data-and-Analysis/Infectious-Disease/Respiratory-Virus-Tool ). "Thank you for contacting Public Health Ontario (PHO).

The completeness of hospitalization (hospital admissions) data for COVID-19 cases, which PHO obtains from the provincial Case and Contact Management database (CCM), ... " 2/
Jan 31 5 tweets 3 min read
#Variant update for #Ontario, #Canada (to Jan. 24, 2024)

The BA.2.86.* #Pirola clan of variants has almost made a clean sweep at 90% of sequences. JN.1 "Pirola" surpasses 50% on its own with JN.1.4 a distant 2nd place with 12.5%. Graph tools by @Mike_Honey_

Sankey graph (height of each bar is # of sequences for that variant) showing top variants and their lineages over the past couple of months from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D&pageName=ReportSection32240d6b62ba73667e98 )
Graph of top 7 COVID variant clans from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D
Graph of top 7 COVID variants (HK.3, HV.1, JG.3.2, JN.1, JN.1.1, JN.1.2, JN.1.4) from PCR test genomic sequencing in Ontario, Canada. Visualization tool was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D )
You can find weekly Ontario stats including variants at ( ) and ( ).

The visualization tool for variants was created by @Mike_Honey_ ( ).covid.gilchrist.ca/Ontario.html
gilchrist.great-site.net/jeff/COVID-19/…
app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
Jan 27 41 tweets 9 min read
Come read about our family adventure with the new game The Haunted Woods created by @stevemwilcox.

"In a far away land, there is a village surrounded by a sprawling forest. Once the forest was lush and vibrant, but it has grown dark and gloomy of late."🧵1/ Image of a haunted forest from the game The Haunted Woods created by Steve Wilcox @stevemwilcox. "The villagers have taken to calling it The Haunted Woods and all who pass through it become cursed. But pass through it they must, for once every year the villagers need to make a pilgrimage to the The Sacred Well and return with its life-giving waters." 2/
Jan 25 5 tweets 2 min read
Virus update for Ottawa, Canada (Jan 24, 2024)

#Wastewater levels in #Ottawa are still very high and #Hospitalization *for* #COVID-19 declined somewhat during the holidays so it will be interesting to see what happens now that the JN.1 #Pirola variant has taken over. 🧵1/
Graph of wastewater levels in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
Graph of # of people currently hospitalized *for* COVID-19 in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )
RSV levels in Ottawa wastewater continue to decline. Influenza A wastewater levels decreased over the holidays when schools were closed but now increasomg quickly again and still 40% higher than the peak of last year. 2/ Graph showing RSV levels decreased, Influenza A levels very high and low Influenza B wastewater levels in Ottawa, Ontario. Weekly stats available at ( http://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ottawa.html )