The USA and it's Allies have adopted a strategy of non-escalation with Iran, as it triggers one proxy after another to attack bases, warships, civilian shipping 1/ Today's killing of US troops may not be an "escalation"...
2/ ... because without air defences, 97 previous attacks could have inflicted such casualties; likewise the attack on HMS Diamond overnight; but since 7 October the legitimate question is what is Iran's strategic intent? ...
3/ ... because unless we know whether Iran is merely exploiting the Gaza situation, or working to a wider Russian-determined hybrid strategy, knee jerk reactions can be counter-productive....
4/ Russian strategic thinking always exploits success and creates confusion; that's why every Russian proxy is right now urging Texas to secede from USA... but its strategic goal is Ukraine and the breakup of NATO ....
5/ The path to both goals is a Trump Presidency, and the path to that is the paralysis and discredit of the Biden administration - so this is a rare moment: the US Federal state has to conceive *itself* as the centre of gravity under attack....
6/ What Iran wants is to inflame MENA to the point where American power has to retreat, consolidate; what Russia wants is US to defocus from Ukraine. That's what the dead and injured in the attack in Jordan is designed to achieve...
7/ The smart response is to do something that materially thwarts both objectives and forces Iran to decouple its regional strategy from Russia's global strategy - not some symbolic air strike (though this will no doubt happen) ....
8/ The first step is to level with voters about what's happening: Russia and Iran are on a path to war with the West and we can't deter them through the means so far used. Ways that might work have to be joined up, strategic and need your backing for you - civil society - are their target.
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