IMO Israel has implemented more measure to prevent civilian casualties in urban warfare than any other military in the history of war. This includes many measure the U.S. has (or has not) taken in wars & battles but also many measures no military in the world has ever taken. 🧵
Precautions during the initial air campaign to target enemy military capabilities to include using precision guided munitions and strict targeting protocols in both pre-planned and dynamic strikes against only military targets.
Use of precision guided munitions (PCMs). Despite the ignorance of reporting on ratios of PCMs to non-PCMs, Israel has used many types of PCMs to include lower collateral damage munitions/small diameter bombs & technologies & tactics that increase the accuracy of non-PCMs (dive bombing) limit civilian causalities (sat imagery, AI, cell phone presence)
The idea that a military must use more PCMs vs non-PCMs in a war is a myth. In the Frist Gulf War the U.S. fired 250,000 individual bombs and missiles in just 43 days. A small fraction of those would fit the definition of PCMs. washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/l…
Also myths about choose of munitions & proportionality assessment/value of target/collateral damage estimate such as saying a 500 lbs bomb would achieve the same military task of a 2,000 lbs bomb with no mention of tunnels that would require greater penetration or availability of types/quantity of munitions.
Call/Text ahead of a strike with (at times) roof-knocking (no military has every implemented in war). In some cases, IDF will call, text, drop small munitions on the roof of a building. While limited in the context of the strike it has been used in this war.
Provide warning and evacuate urban areas/cities before the full combined air and ground attack begins. While the tactic does alert the enemy defender and provide them the military advantage to prepare further, it is one of the best ways to prevent civilian casualties.
The U.S. did not do this in the invasion of Iraq or attack of Baghdad in 2003. Did not do this in the 2004 1st Battle of Fallujah but did do this in the Second Battle of Fallujah 6 months later because of the different context.
In the 2016-2017 Battle of Mosul, the Iraq government told the civilian to not evacuate and shelter in place during the battle for both Eastern and Western Mosul, but later changed instructions further into the battle. nytimes.com/2016/11/24/wor…
Israel provided days and then weeks of warnings and time for civilians to evacuate multiple cities in Northern Gaza before starting the main air-ground attack of urban areas.
Use of air dropped flyers to give instruction on evacuations and establishing evacuation corridors (U.S. implemented in 2nd Fallujah & assisted 2016-2017 Mosul). Israel dropped over 520,000 pamphlets, broadcasted over radio and through social media messages to provide instruction for civilians to leave combat areas using corridors.
Use of real phone calls (19,734) to civilians in the combat areas, SMS texts (64,399) and pre-recorded calls (almost 6 million) to civilians to provide instructions on evacuations. No military has never done this in urban warfare history.
Daily pauses for civilian evacuations. Israel conducted daily 4-hour pauses over multiple consecutive days. While pauses for civilian evacuations after a war or battle have started is not completely new but the frequency and predictability used in Gaza may have been historic.
The distribution of Israel military maps and urban warfare graphic (GRG - gridded reference graphic) to the civilians to assist with day to day evacuations, alerting civilians and enemy to where the IDF will be operating. No military in history has ever done this. timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry…
There is no modern comparison to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Israel is not fighting a battle it is fighting a war.
No military in modern history has faced 30k defenders embedded in more than more than 7 cities, using human shields and hundreds of miles of underground networks purposely built under civilian sites while holding hundreds of hostages and launching over +12k rockets at the attacking military's civilians areas.
Again, Israel has implemented more measures to prevent civilian casualties than any other military in the history of war. While some have argued Israel could have waited longer, used different munitions, or not conducted the war at all - but these all fail to acknowledge the context of Israel’s war from the hostages, rockets, tunnels, existential threat of Hamas, and more but also fail to recognize what Israel has done to prevent civilians casualties.
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What are Israel's choices in Gaza? The insanity of double standards and uninformed analysis about the war in Gaza.🧵 1/21
War is uncertain by its nature. It is human, it is political, and it absolutely uncertain. To say there is only one way for the war in Gaza to end is not connected to the complete history of war. 2/21
To say Israel has achieved its goals and should end the war is not true and often disconnected from reality. To say Israel can’t achieve its goals, is not true and full of double standards. 3/21
Hamas has refused to negotiate the return of hostages or discuss disarmament. President Trump responded: “It got to a point where you’re gonna have to finish the job.” So what does finishing the job in Gaza actually look like? What options remain? What’s likely? What would help? 🧵 1/18 cnn.com/2025/07/25/pol…
War is inherently uncertain, so no one can say with confidence what will happen in Gaza. It is also up to Israel and Israel's society. But in my view, “finish the job” means continuing military operations to return the hostages, dismantle Hamas as an armed force, eliminate its political control in the Gaza Strip, and ensure Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. I highly recommend the recent podcast featuring Ambassador Ron Dermer, Israel’s Minister for Strategic Affairs, where he clearly outlines Israel’s goals and the end state it envisions in Gaza. 2/18 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/one…
1) Global recognition of Israel’s legitimate and just war aims must be the baseline. As I’ve written before x.com/SpencerGuard/s…
Many who call for a “ceasefire now” implicitly argue that the war can end without dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities or removing it from power in Gaza. Their view often suggests that if Hamas simply returns the hostages, typically in exchange for an unbalanced release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, the war should stop. That is not accurate. Any position that falls short of Hamas’s full military and political removal effectively endorses its continued rule in Gaza. It is a position that allows Hamas to regroup, rearm, and continue the cycle of violence in the near future. 3/18
Let’s compare the 1967 Six-Day War to Israel’s ongoing operation against Iran. 🛢️
In 1967, Israel faced annihilation. Egypt closed the Straits of Tiran. Five Arab armies mobilized - 465,000 troops, 2,800 tanks, 800 aircraft. Israel struck first, and in six days, defeated Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon. It was preemption for survival.
In 2025, Israel faces a different, but no less existential, threat. The Islamic regime in Iran was within days of nuclear breakout and already has missiles capable of striking every inch of Israel. This is a regime that funds Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and chants "Death to Israel" as policy.
1/ BREAKING: Israel announces approval and plan to launch the next major phase of operations in Gaza, Operation "Gideon’s Chariots"— one that appears guided by a phased strategy rooted in lessons from past conflicts: Clear, Hold, Build. Here's what it means—and why it matters. 🧵
2/ Israel's goals remain unchanged: secure the release of all hostages, dismantle Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and ensure that no threat can reemerge from Gaza to endanger Israel again.
3/The plan is a major shift from what has been implemented in Gaza so far, instead of raiding in, limited clearing, and withdrawal operations, the IDF will operate with full force, expand its presence across Gaza, and remain in every captured area.
Genocide is defined in the 1948 United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Genocide Convention) and codified in various legal instruments, including the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Genocide is defined (Article II, Genocide Convention) as any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
- Killing members of the group.
- Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group.
- Deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.
- Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group.
- Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
1. Armed Conflict Must Exist - War crimes can only occur in the context of an armed conflict—either international (between states) or non-international (between a state and organized armed groups).
2. Violation of a Law of War - The act must violate a specific rule of international humanitarian law/law of armed conflict, especially rules protecting civilians and combatants who are hors de combat (out of the fight). Examples include:
- Intentionally targeting civilians
- Torture or inhumane treatment
- Taking hostages
- Using banned weapons (e.g., chemical weapons)