What are Israel's choices in Gaza? The insanity of double standards and uninformed analysis about the war in Gaza.🧵 1/21 War is uncertain by its nature. It is human, it is political, and it absolutely uncertain. To say there is only one way for the war in Gaza to end is not connected to the complete history of war. 2/21

Hamas has refused to negotiate the return of hostages or discuss disarmament. President Trump responded: “It got to a point where you’re gonna have to finish the job.” So what does finishing the job in Gaza actually look like? What options remain? What’s likely? What would help? 🧵 1/18
cnn.com/2025/07/25/pol… War is inherently uncertain, so no one can say with confidence what will happen in Gaza. It is also up to Israel and Israel's society. But in my view, “finish the job” means continuing military operations to return the hostages, dismantle Hamas as an armed force, eliminate its political control in the Gaza Strip, and ensure Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. I highly recommend the recent podcast featuring Ambassador Ron Dermer, Israel’s Minister for Strategic Affairs, where he clearly outlines Israel’s goals and the end state it envisions in Gaza. 2/18 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/one…

Let’s compare the 1967 Six-Day War to Israel’s ongoing operation against Iran. 🛢️ In 1967, Israel faced annihilation. Egypt closed the Straits of Tiran. Five Arab armies mobilized - 465,000 troops, 2,800 tanks, 800 aircraft. Israel struck first, and in six days, defeated Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon. It was preemption for survival.

1/ BREAKING: Israel announces approval and plan to launch the next major phase of operations in Gaza, Operation "Gideon’s Chariots"— one that appears guided by a phased strategy rooted in lessons from past conflicts: Clear, Hold, Build. Here's what it means—and why it matters. 🧵 2/ Israel's goals remain unchanged: secure the release of all hostages, dismantle Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and ensure that no threat can reemerge from Gaza to endanger Israel again.

War 101 - What is a Genocide? 🧵 Genocide is defined in the 1948 United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Genocide Convention) and codified in various legal instruments, including the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

War 101 - What is a war crime? Who can call it. 🧵 1. Armed Conflict Must Exist - War crimes can only occur in the context of an armed conflict—either international (between states) or non-international (between a state and organized armed groups).

LIE - 45,028 civilians have died in Gaza.

This number is provided by the Hamas Gaza Health Ministry. It does not distinguish between combatants or noncombatants in Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza declared by Israel after the invasion of Israel and war crimes to include rape, murder, mutilations, burnings of civilans and taking of hostages committed by Hamas on October 7th. As of 2 months ago the IDF said they had killed 20,000 Hamas terrorists. youtube.com/watch?v=ROXiZF… LIE - 45,028 people have died in Gaza since October 7th.

The number is generated by the Hamas Gaza Health Ministry. Many reports have shown the methodology of how the number is generated, the names that make up the list, statistical inconsistency, and false information on the list. This is includes recent studies by the @HJS_Org and others.

The demographics of the names on the list have been revised by the Gaza Health Ministry and the United Nations during the war. The demographics of the names on the list have been proven to contain many errors.

Hezbollah Pager Operation. A few personal thoughts. 1) Historic & unprecedented. I cannot find a similar intelligence/military operation with such secrecy, lethality, ingenuity, audacity, impact. While there have been other major intelligence operations in war (breaking Enigma, various spies inside governments) or surprise attacks (D-Day, Pearl Harbor, Inchon landing) but nothing so targeted lethal use of force, precise - proportionate & distinction, as many enemy hit, over such a wide geographic area.

Let's review my research and scholarship on Israel's operations against Hamas in Gaza since some new people (Hi, nice to meet you) are - he is only xx, was only xx in service, has only studied xx. My bio is public knowledge. I served 25 yrs active duty as an infantry soldier, NCO, officer with 2 year long combat tours in Iraq. I started studying urban warfare academically in 2014 while assigned to the Chief of Staff of the Army's Strategic Studies Group looking at megacities and advising him (top 4 star general of the U.S. Army) on our research. I have served as Chair of Urban Warfare Studies @WarInstitute since retiring from active duty in 2018. johnspenceronline.com/bio

I find myself in conversations about post-conflict or after major fighting operations often now. How a military actually fights an insurgency. Emplaces a new power & works to create stability, while preventing the previous power from reemerging. people want simple frameworks. 🧵 Most people have heard of the clear, hold, build framework. But even within that there are other frameworks that were used as “ways.”

Israel has done more to prevent civilian casualties in war than any military in history — above & beyond what international law requires & more than the US did in its wars in Iraq & Afghanistan -- setting a standard that will be both hard & potentially problematic to repeat. 🧵 Here (again for all the not so expert ‘experts’) are many of the measures and steps the IDF have taken 👇

I have delivered aid in war zones. It was one of the most frightening situations I experienced. 🧵 I was a young platoon leader in 2003. It was a month after jumping into Iraq and I was tasked to take my infantry platoon and escort a water truck to a distribute water to a neighborhood in Kirkuk Iraq. We had a plan.

ICYMI - Hospitals are protected sites under the laws of armed conflict, but cannot be "Off limits." 🧵 Hospitals are one of the many civilian objects provided a special level of protection in war under the law of armed conflict. Other civilian objects include mosques, churches, and cultural sites. But hospitals stand above the rest as both sensitive and protected sites.

Hospitals are protected sites under the laws of armed conflict, but cannot be "Off limits." 🧵 Hospitals are one of the many civilian objects provided a special level of protection in war under the law of armed conflict. Other civilian objects include mosques, churches, and cultural sites. But hospitals stand above the rest as both sensitive and protected sites.

Everyone wants to compare Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza to other battles or wars (spoiler, there is none…but). 🧵 Key facts (a) Israel is fighting a defensive WAR predominately in urban areas and not a SINGLE urban battle. Israel is not conducting just an air campaign, but joint air-land-sea-cyber-space operations in its WAR.

IMO Israel has implemented more measure to prevent civilian casualties in urban warfare than any other military in the history of war. This includes many measure the U.S. has (or has not) taken in wars & battles but also many measures no military in the world has ever taken. 🧵 Precautions during the initial air campaign to target enemy military capabilities to include using precision guided munitions and strict targeting protocols in both pre-planned and dynamic strikes against only military targets.

Facts matter. According to the Gaza (Hamas run) Health Ministry there have been 26,422 Palestinians that have died in Gaza since October 7th. 🧵 I have recently seen and heard the number inflated to 30,000. If people are going to use the Hamas provided number they should at least quote Hamas accurately.

Many have tried to use urban warfare statics to say the @IDF uses indiscriminate force, accept unprecedented high collateral damage, or are more destructive than others in like wars. The real numbers don't show that. @EylonALevy numbers are accurate. 🧵 The United Nations reports 90% of the casualties of modern wars are civilians. press.un.org/en/2022/sc1490…

Hamas Tunnel Updates and Thoughts 🧵
@nytimes "In December...assessed to be an estimated 250 miles...currently estimating the network is between 350 and 450 miles...close to 5,700 separate shafts leading down to the tunnels..." nytimes.com/2024/01/16/us/… Billon dollar military purpose built terror network. 2022...$1 million on the tunnel doors. underground workshops...2015...$3 million on tunnels...Now @FoxNews over 15 years...tens of millions of dollars...6,000 tons of concrete and 1,800 tons of metal foxnews.com/world/hamas-fo…

One of the biggest mistakes of critics of Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza is attempting to compare the war to a past modern war (post WWII) or battle that is not what Israel is conducting in Gaza. 🧵 Israel is not conducting a counterinsurgency, counter-terror campaign (it may later) in a semi-permissive environment with host nation support, or fighting a single battle against a small terror force that has temporarily seized an urban area.

"Don’t let them forget” What it was like to visit one of the massacre sites (Kibbutz Kfar Aza) of October 7th The flies don’t tell lies, but humans spread lies like a vicious disease. I've visited many sites of death, be it after combat or civilian violence. I was in Bucha weeks after Russian war crimes. Flies feasting on human remains are always present even after bodies are removed.