Hezbollah Pager Operation. A few personal thoughts. 1) Historic & unprecedented. I cannot find a similar intelligence/military operation with such secrecy, lethality, ingenuity, audacity, impact. While there have been other major intelligence operations in war (breaking Enigma, various spies inside governments) or surprise attacks (D-Day, Pearl Harbor, Inchon landing) but nothing so targeted lethal use of force, precise - proportionate & distinction, as many enemy hit, over such a wide geographic area.

Let's review my research and scholarship on Israel's operations against Hamas in Gaza since some new people (Hi, nice to meet you) are - he is only xx, was only xx in service, has only studied xx. My bio is public knowledge. I served 25 yrs active duty as an infantry soldier, NCO, officer with 2 year long combat tours in Iraq. I started studying urban warfare academically in 2014 while assigned to the Chief of Staff of the Army's Strategic Studies Group looking at megacities and advising him (top 4 star general of the U.S. Army) on our research. I have served as Chair of Urban Warfare Studies @WarInstitute since retiring from active duty in 2018. johnspenceronline.com/bio

I find myself in conversations about post-conflict or after major fighting operations often now. How a military actually fights an insurgency. Emplaces a new power & works to create stability, while preventing the previous power from reemerging. people want simple frameworks. 🧵 Most people have heard of the clear, hold, build framework. But even within that there are other frameworks that were used as “ways.”

Israel has done more to prevent civilian casualties in war than any military in history — above & beyond what international law requires & more than the US did in its wars in Iraq & Afghanistan -- setting a standard that will be both hard & potentially problematic to repeat. 🧵 Here (again for all the not so expert ‘experts’) are many of the measures and steps the IDF have taken 👇

I have delivered aid in war zones. It was one of the most frightening situations I experienced. 🧵 I was a young platoon leader in 2003. It was a month after jumping into Iraq and I was tasked to take my infantry platoon and escort a water truck to a distribute water to a neighborhood in Kirkuk Iraq. We had a plan.

ICYMI - Hospitals are protected sites under the laws of armed conflict, but cannot be "Off limits." 🧵 Hospitals are one of the many civilian objects provided a special level of protection in war under the law of armed conflict. Other civilian objects include mosques, churches, and cultural sites. But hospitals stand above the rest as both sensitive and protected sites.

Hospitals are protected sites under the laws of armed conflict, but cannot be "Off limits." 🧵 Hospitals are one of the many civilian objects provided a special level of protection in war under the law of armed conflict. Other civilian objects include mosques, churches, and cultural sites. But hospitals stand above the rest as both sensitive and protected sites.

Everyone wants to compare Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza to other battles or wars (spoiler, there is none…but). 🧵 Key facts (a) Israel is fighting a defensive WAR predominately in urban areas and not a SINGLE urban battle. Israel is not conducting just an air campaign, but joint air-land-sea-cyber-space operations in its WAR.

IMO Israel has implemented more measure to prevent civilian casualties in urban warfare than any other military in the history of war. This includes many measure the U.S. has (or has not) taken in wars & battles but also many measures no military in the world has ever taken. 🧵 Precautions during the initial air campaign to target enemy military capabilities to include using precision guided munitions and strict targeting protocols in both pre-planned and dynamic strikes against only military targets.

Facts matter. According to the Gaza (Hamas run) Health Ministry there have been 26,422 Palestinians that have died in Gaza since October 7th. 🧵 I have recently seen and heard the number inflated to 30,000. If people are going to use the Hamas provided number they should at least quote Hamas accurately.

Many have tried to use urban warfare statics to say the @IDF uses indiscriminate force, accept unprecedented high collateral damage, or are more destructive than others in like wars. The real numbers don't show that. @EylonALevy numbers are accurate. 🧵 The United Nations reports 90% of the casualties of modern wars are civilians. press.un.org/en/2022/sc1490…

Hamas Tunnel Updates and Thoughts 🧵
@nytimes "In December...assessed to be an estimated 250 miles...currently estimating the network is between 350 and 450 miles...close to 5,700 separate shafts leading down to the tunnels..." nytimes.com/2024/01/16/us/… Billon dollar military purpose built terror network. 2022...$1 million on the tunnel doors. underground workshops...2015...$3 million on tunnels...Now @FoxNews over 15 years...tens of millions of dollars...6,000 tons of concrete and 1,800 tons of metal foxnews.com/world/hamas-fo…

One of the biggest mistakes of critics of Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza is attempting to compare the war to a past modern war (post WWII) or battle that is not what Israel is conducting in Gaza. 🧵 Israel is not conducting a counterinsurgency, counter-terror campaign (it may later) in a semi-permissive environment with host nation support, or fighting a single battle against a small terror force that has temporarily seized an urban area.

"Don’t let them forget” What it was like to visit one of the massacre sites (Kibbutz Kfar Aza) of October 7th The flies don’t tell lies, but humans spread lies like a vicious disease. I've visited many sites of death, be it after combat or civilian violence. I was in Bucha weeks after Russian war crimes. Flies feasting on human remains are always present even after bodies are removed.

Hamas invasion tunnel. I’ve been in tunnels all around the world. North-South Korean border, Nagorno-Karabakh, Iraq, Ukraine, Hezbollah’s North Israel, Yesterday I saw the most recent large Hamas tunnel found in Gaza, just a couple 100 meters from Erez Humanitarian crossing.





This tunnel is massive and meant for invasion. It incline from over a 50 meter depth straight up to the surface by the crossing. It most reminded me of North Korean Tunnel #3 that was built to flow thousands of soldiers and potentially vehicles into South Korea in an invasion.

One of the closest U.S. supported operations to the current urban battles in the Israel-Gaza War was the 2016-17 Battle of Mosul against ISIS. Only months after returning from commanding U.S./Coalition support during the battle General Stephen Townsend had these comments 🧵 “The Battle of Mosul, a city of 2 million people…complex terrain, subterranean…some multi-story buildings…11, 20 stories high…lasted nine months…longer than the battle of Stalingrad…probably 8 to 900,000 remaining in the city at the peak of the battle…"

Since there has been a sudden burst of experts on the handling of prisoners of war, here is what I see from the photos of the @IDF and Hamas prisoners of war in Gaza. 🧵 According to the Geneva Conventions prisoners of war may include the following:
• Members of the armed forces
• Volunteer militia, including resistance movements
• Civilians accompanying the armed forces

I just watched the roughly 45-minute footage of October 7th at a private screening in NYC. Here are my immediate thoughts minutes after watching it. 🧵 The video is a compilation of mainly Hamas GoPro cameras/cellphones carried by hundreds of the terrorists, but it also includes Israeli CCTV, car dash cams, traffic cams, first responder cell videos to piece together before, during, and after single events of the massacre.

Dangerous inaccurate statement: The number of bombs dropped on Gaza is a sign that Israel is unwilling to sacrifice @IDF lives and is trading civilian lives for their soldiers, i.e. there is a better way..i.e. they are indiscriminately bombing 🧵 The highest numbers I have seen are that Israel has "struck at least 12,000 targets." aljazeera.com/news/longform/…

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah just gave a speech for Martyrs Day (he speaks on this day every year). 10% on Martyrs 90% about situation with the war in Gaza. Highlights of his speech include: 🧵 Martyrdom is the creator of victory…Blood of martyrs over the sword…It is blood that has made us victorious over the Israeli American sword. Major and historic dangerous events in Israel and Gaza…the Israeli aggression against the people of Gaza...

Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah gave the most anticipated speech since the 2006 Lebanon War. What did he say? 🧵 Most importantly, no fiery call or announcement for Hezbollah forces to directly enter the war as feared, rather a statement that "we" entered the war on October 7 using Islamic resistance forces that prevented Israeli forces from being used in Gaza