It is insane how every so called "expert," academic getting 5 minutes of fame, podcaster, or media personality starts their critique or prediction of the war in Iran with regime change. Too bad it is a house of cards built on a lie 🧵

Such as "in all of military history, bombing campaigns have never caused a regime change." "The U.S. will lose the war, be embarrassed, didn't plan for this or that...Iran will win and be stronger...because the operation won't cause regime change." Fact: In every speech, briefing, and official statement from President Trump, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, Secretary of State Rubio, the Joint Chiefs, and the White House, the objectives of Operation Epic Fury have been:

1. Destroy Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capacity
2. Annihilate its navy
3. Ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon
4. End the regime’s ability to arm, fund, and direct terrorist proxies

What could possibly be the U.S. options in Iran? Most people jump from today to a full-scale ground invasion to seize Tehran, secure nuclear material by force, and destroy a supposed million-man army. That is shallow thinking. 🧵

President Trump has signaled a 10-day pause on energy infrastructure strikes (now extended to April 6). We are days into that timeline.

The real questions are not just what has been done, but what options remain. It is given that CENTCOM and Israel will continue systematic attacks on Iran’s military system, its navy, missile forces, and military industrial base. Iran entered this war with thousands of ballistic missiles, hundreds of launchers, a massive naval complex...destroying Iran means to project power is a vital part of achieving the strategic goals.

The myth of short wars. By day 4 of the war in Iran, the experts showed up: “Why is this taking so long?” or "The U.S. is failing. Their strategy is not working." 🧵 War does not operate on social media timelines. Here are some limited objective wars/operations:

- Korean War (1950–1953): 3 years (1,125 days)
- Panama (Operation Just Cause, 1989–1990): 41 days
- Bosnia (Deliberate Force + IFOR/SFOR, 1995–2004): 9 years of NATO involvement
- Kosovo (Operation Allied Force, 1999): 78 days (KFOR 1999–present)
- Libya (Operation Unified Protector, 2011): 7 months (220+ days)
- Persian Gulf War (1990–1991): 38-day air campaign followed by a 4-day ground war (100 hours), after 5 months of buildup
- Operation Earnest Will (1987–1988): 14 months escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz)

What don't people know about the war in Iran? 🧵 The ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran (now in its fourth week) highlights Carl von Clausewitz's timeless insight: "War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty."

“Decapitation strikes don’t work,” they say. “The strategy isn’t working,” they say after 5, 10, or 20 days.

Strategic effects are cumulative. Impatience is not analysis.

Let's review just what Israel has stuck in Iran according to @IDF 🧵 Eliminations of senior regime figures:

Supreme leader Ali Khamenei

Esmaeil Khatib: Minister of Intelligence

Ali Larijani: Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (regime’s effective leader at that time).

Gholamreza Soleimani: Commander of the Basij unit (6 years; oversaw repression).

Esmail Ahmadi: Head of the Intelligence Division of the Basij Force + several other senior Basij commanders.

Senior Ministry of Intelligence officials: Sayed Yahya Hamidi (Deputy Minister for ‘Israel Affairs’), Jalal Pour Hossein (Head of Espionage Division).

7 senior Iranian Defense Leadership officials: Ali Shamkhani, Mohammad Pakpour, Saleh Asadi, Mohammad Shirazi, Aziz Nasirzadeh, Hossein Jabal Amelian, Reza Mozaffari-Nia.

Additional Basij/ Internal Security/ IRGC commanders (e.g., in Ilam and Tehran strikes).

What are Israel's choices in Gaza? The insanity of double standards and uninformed analysis about the war in Gaza.🧵 1/21 War is uncertain by its nature. It is human, it is political, and it absolutely uncertain. To say there is only one way for the war in Gaza to end is not connected to the complete history of war. 2/21

Hamas has refused to negotiate the return of hostages or discuss disarmament. President Trump responded: “It got to a point where you’re gonna have to finish the job.” So what does finishing the job in Gaza actually look like? What options remain? What’s likely? What would help? 🧵 1/18
cnn.com/2025/07/25/pol… War is inherently uncertain, so no one can say with confidence what will happen in Gaza. It is also up to Israel and Israel's society. But in my view, “finish the job” means continuing military operations to return the hostages, dismantle Hamas as an armed force, eliminate its political control in the Gaza Strip, and ensure Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. I highly recommend the recent podcast featuring Ambassador Ron Dermer, Israel’s Minister for Strategic Affairs, where he clearly outlines Israel’s goals and the end state it envisions in Gaza. 2/18 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/one…

Let’s compare the 1967 Six-Day War to Israel’s ongoing operation against Iran. 🛢️ In 1967, Israel faced annihilation. Egypt closed the Straits of Tiran. Five Arab armies mobilized - 465,000 troops, 2,800 tanks, 800 aircraft. Israel struck first, and in six days, defeated Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon. It was preemption for survival.

1/ BREAKING: Israel announces approval and plan to launch the next major phase of operations in Gaza, Operation "Gideon’s Chariots"— one that appears guided by a phased strategy rooted in lessons from past conflicts: Clear, Hold, Build. Here's what it means—and why it matters. 🧵 2/ Israel's goals remain unchanged: secure the release of all hostages, dismantle Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, and ensure that no threat can reemerge from Gaza to endanger Israel again.

War 101 - What is a Genocide? 🧵 Genocide is defined in the 1948 United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Genocide Convention) and codified in various legal instruments, including the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

War 101 - What is a war crime? Who can call it. 🧵 1. Armed Conflict Must Exist - War crimes can only occur in the context of an armed conflict—either international (between states) or non-international (between a state and organized armed groups).

LIE - 45,028 civilians have died in Gaza.

This number is provided by the Hamas Gaza Health Ministry. It does not distinguish between combatants or noncombatants in Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza declared by Israel after the invasion of Israel and war crimes to include rape, murder, mutilations, burnings of civilans and taking of hostages committed by Hamas on October 7th. As of 2 months ago the IDF said they had killed 20,000 Hamas terrorists. youtube.com/watch?v=ROXiZF… LIE - 45,028 people have died in Gaza since October 7th.

The number is generated by the Hamas Gaza Health Ministry. Many reports have shown the methodology of how the number is generated, the names that make up the list, statistical inconsistency, and false information on the list. This is includes recent studies by the @HJS_Org and others.

The demographics of the names on the list have been revised by the Gaza Health Ministry and the United Nations during the war. The demographics of the names on the list have been proven to contain many errors.

Hezbollah Pager Operation. A few personal thoughts. 1) Historic & unprecedented. I cannot find a similar intelligence/military operation with such secrecy, lethality, ingenuity, audacity, impact. While there have been other major intelligence operations in war (breaking Enigma, various spies inside governments) or surprise attacks (D-Day, Pearl Harbor, Inchon landing) but nothing so targeted lethal use of force, precise - proportionate & distinction, as many enemy hit, over such a wide geographic area.

Let's review my research and scholarship on Israel's operations against Hamas in Gaza since some new people (Hi, nice to meet you) are - he is only xx, was only xx in service, has only studied xx. My bio is public knowledge. I served 25 yrs active duty as an infantry soldier, NCO, officer with 2 year long combat tours in Iraq. I started studying urban warfare academically in 2014 while assigned to the Chief of Staff of the Army's Strategic Studies Group looking at megacities and advising him (top 4 star general of the U.S. Army) on our research. I have served as Chair of Urban Warfare Studies @WarInstitute since retiring from active duty in 2018. johnspenceronline.com/bio

I find myself in conversations about post-conflict or after major fighting operations often now. How a military actually fights an insurgency. Emplaces a new power & works to create stability, while preventing the previous power from reemerging. people want simple frameworks. 🧵 Most people have heard of the clear, hold, build framework. But even within that there are other frameworks that were used as “ways.”

Israel has done more to prevent civilian casualties in war than any military in history — above & beyond what international law requires & more than the US did in its wars in Iraq & Afghanistan -- setting a standard that will be both hard & potentially problematic to repeat. 🧵 Here (again for all the not so expert ‘experts’) are many of the measures and steps the IDF have taken 👇

I have delivered aid in war zones. It was one of the most frightening situations I experienced. 🧵 I was a young platoon leader in 2003. It was a month after jumping into Iraq and I was tasked to take my infantry platoon and escort a water truck to a distribute water to a neighborhood in Kirkuk Iraq. We had a plan.

ICYMI - Hospitals are protected sites under the laws of armed conflict, but cannot be "Off limits." 🧵 Hospitals are one of the many civilian objects provided a special level of protection in war under the law of armed conflict. Other civilian objects include mosques, churches, and cultural sites. But hospitals stand above the rest as both sensitive and protected sites.

Hospitals are protected sites under the laws of armed conflict, but cannot be "Off limits." 🧵 Hospitals are one of the many civilian objects provided a special level of protection in war under the law of armed conflict. Other civilian objects include mosques, churches, and cultural sites. But hospitals stand above the rest as both sensitive and protected sites.

Everyone wants to compare Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza to other battles or wars (spoiler, there is none…but). 🧵 Key facts (a) Israel is fighting a defensive WAR predominately in urban areas and not a SINGLE urban battle. Israel is not conducting just an air campaign, but joint air-land-sea-cyber-space operations in its WAR.

IMO Israel has implemented more measure to prevent civilian casualties in urban warfare than any other military in the history of war. This includes many measure the U.S. has (or has not) taken in wars & battles but also many measures no military in the world has ever taken. 🧵 Precautions during the initial air campaign to target enemy military capabilities to include using precision guided munitions and strict targeting protocols in both pre-planned and dynamic strikes against only military targets.