Ron Butler Profile picture
Jan 30 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Mortgage Investment Fund Blowing Up Soon: What Investors Need To Know About Mortgage Related Funds

We will read about a multi-million dollar Mortgage & Promissory Note Fund blowing up in the coming days & weeks

I will let big media with lots of lawyers name names

2/
But I want to cover the realities of what to look out for in Mortgage Investing

The MOST important thing: avoid anything to do with Promissory Notes like it was the Bubonic Plague

The whole point of Mortgage Lending is that a mortgage is on the title of a property

3/
When a person or a Mortgage Investment Corporation is registered on the title of a property that is actual security, there is tangible collateral

A Promissory Note is toilet paper

There is no security, no collateral, it's a frigging promise

And that's this case

4/
When the details of this Investment Fund failure come out, people will be shocked & amazed at how reckless & stupid the whole operation was

Compared with huge financial losses like the Bridging Finance scandal this will be small potatoes less than $50M & hopefully lots less

5/
But the lesson is clear: ONLY a Mortgage Investment Corp. with that particular tax status JUST dealing in mortgages is Ok

The only thing your money is invested in is registered mortgages: there is tangible collateral

Don't go near anything else & research CAREFULLY

6/
Before you put a dime in any MIC get outside opinions & make sure you understand every word of the Offering Memorandum

In this case, just reading the Fund's advertising was sickening: all pure BS touting the virtues of Real Estate Flipping & renovation BRRRR

Horrible

7/
There are a number of excellent Mortgage Investment Corps:

- mainly 1st Mortgages
- only subdivision residential
- no Reno-Flipping

But if you see the words Promissory Note or Unsecured Loans: just run away!

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Jan 26
We Have Become Idiots About Any Government Project: LRT Transition Needs NEW Study

Because a closed LRT Line changing to a Bus Transit Line needs a new Environmental Study because...... rules

Nothing fcking changed, not adding anything new, not expanding it: NOTHING

2/
Just remove the tracks, pave it & start buses running

OH NO: You need a brand new environmental study which will take a year & $12M

Except NOTHING actually fcking changed

Oh & no one can stop it, no one can step in & say Shut The Fck Up! Not needed at all: NO STUDY!

3/
And the people who LOST the LRT & had to find other transit options can WAIT longer, MUCH longer & all the Bureaucrats could not give a damn

No matter how stupid the rules are, no matter how much the public is abused by the situation it doesn't matter

The Study MUST happen

4/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 25
We Thought "Infinite Amortization" Variable Mortgages Would End: Not So Much

Some Variable Rate Mortgages don't change payments when Prime Rate Changes: RBC, TD, BMO, CIBC don't: Scotia & National Bank do

We have all read the stories of borrowers with Forever Mortgages

2/
Mortgages where people are only paying a few dollars of Principal Pay Down versus HUGE Interest: we saw one statement with $72K of Interest & $1100.00 of Principal paid

We have seen the 84 year amortizations on Mortgage Statements

We know some Mortgages are GROWING

3/
The Mortgage Interest is greater than the payment

The Bank Regulator OSFI (Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions) hates this

Peter Routledge, the OSFI boss required banks who offer these mortgages to assign special capital allocations to those mortgages

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 24
Bank Of Canada Announcement: NO CHANGE

Govenor Tiff Maclem stands pat on the Banks Overnight Rate

Except it 8:15 AM & the official announcement isn't till 10:00 AM

But it's not important because everyone knows this one

The Canadian economy is headed for the crapper

2/
You know, I know it, Tiff knows it everyone knows it

So there was never going to be any increase

But inflation is still around so no decrease

People will pick over BoC remarks & many pundits will discuss it, many electrons will flow words out into the world

All pointless

3/
Because BoC Rate Hikes are over

Even if inflation is beaten, even if we see some slight upward movement in CPI its done no more rate hikes

Whether it's a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing we're already in a per capita GDP Recession and Tiff knows it

The race is on

4/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 16
Everyone Talking April Bank Of Canada Rate Cuts Please Sit Down

CPI ticked up both Top Line & Core

Lots of reasons for it but parsing the hell out of these reports is not the most productive way to spend your time: in 30 days there will just be another one to over analyze

2/
The reduction of CPI will not be linear: the first Bank of Canada Rate Cut will NOT be a function of Hopium

That said Cuts will come sometime this year

The gradual slowing of the economy is becoming more obvious, there will be more layoffs, there will be more closures

3/
And there will be more Mortgage Renewals (thousands a week) at a higher rate & higher payments than previously & people will have a little less to spend on everything else

Cuts will come but July or later in the Fall has always been the rational suggestion

Not April

4/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 11
Property Taxes Go Nuts Across Canada: Cities & Towns Can NEVER Reduce Spending

Mayor Chow announces a 10.5% Property Tax increase & unless her attempt to Blackmail the Feds into a $250M payment works she says she will need to bump the increase to 16%

Even in low tax Alberta

2/
Is up 7.5% to 10% in Calgary

God help the people of little Osoyoos BC where property tax jumped 38%

All Canadian cities will see big bumps

Naturally Mayor's across Canada blame inflation & other levels of Government

Bank of Canada Governor Maclem tears up a bit

3/
As both the US CPI Report & all these huge Canadian Municipal Tax increases prove inflation isn't dead yet

It's interesting NOT ONE Mayor discussed aggressive ways to reduce spending to reverse these huge increases

Why is that never a topic? It never crosses their minds

4/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 5
Young People Are Leaving Canada: Can Their Be Any Bigger Indictment Of Our Policies?

I spoke to a young woman in her 20's this week & it was kinda heartbreaking

She's well educated, has a good job she is striving to get better at & believes she had no economic prospects

2/
Most poignantly, she believes she will never own a home in Canada: her parents are renters so there's no huge gift coming

And although she lives outside the GTA proper her rent is too high to achieve any meaningful level of savings that might form a down payment

Like never

3/
When I asked if any of her friends had left Canada she said several had: NOT for travel: to live permanently

2 couples: one who moved to Latin American one to South America

Both couples continue to do Digital work in Canada or the USA

And they LOVE where they are now

4/
Read 6 tweets

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