Jeffrey P. Snider Profile picture
Jan 30 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
🧵👇

The Fed is winding down its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), the emergency tool created during last year's banking crisis. But there's more to this than meets the eye. Let's dive into what this really means. Image
The BTFP was a quick fix during a crisis, offering banks easy loans. But as we've seen, easy fixes often lead to unanticipated consequences.

Now, the Fed is shifting gears back to the Discount Window as a BTFP replacement. But why the sudden shift to the Discount Window?
The BTFP, initially a crisis tool, turned into a “free money machine” for banks.

They borrowed cheaply and profited by leaving funds with the Fed. Sounds good, right?

Not quite.

BTFP was supposed to help struggling institutions that had nowhere else to turn. Image
Fast forward, and the Fed's plan to phase out the BTFP by March 11th is raising questions.

How much of the $166 billion is “free money” and how much is due to banks genuinely unable to get private funding? Where will the latter go?

the Discount Window, the Fed's new focus. But why?
But here's the real issue: Why does the Fed keep having to reinvent its tools? Shouldn't the primary focus be on being an effective lender of last resort? It seems like they're always playing catch-u
The difference between a financial crisis and a monetary crisis is key here. The former is about bad assets and economic pain, but the latter? It's when markets dry up, good assets can't be sold, and liquidity vanishes. And that's where we are. Image
the Fed is pushing the Discount Window, but with a twist. They're focusing on collateral requirements. But if banks had enough good collateral, wouldn't they just use the repo market? Image
This brings us to the heart of the matter: the repo market and its breakdowns. It's not just about individual banks or Fed tools. It's about systemic issues in the monetary system, often ignored but crucial. Image
the Fed is struggling. They're not just tweaking tools; they're facing a fundamental challenge in managing the monetary system. They're like a janitor, constantly cleaning up without really addressing the root cause.
this is just a small part of the problem and potential issues with the BTFP if you want to find out more check out this video here

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More from @JeffSnider_EDU

Nov 1, 2023
Things are getting REALLY Serious in china.
1/🧵👇

Recent events in China are raising eyebrows across the globe.

A series of high-profile officials have mysteriously vanished or been ousted, signaling potential political upheaval.
Let's unpack this. Image
2/ 🧵
It all started with Qin Gang, China's foreign minister, who disappeared in June. This was followed by changes in other key positions, including the Governor of the People's Bank of China. Image
3/🧵
📉 These aren't isolated incidents. They point to broader economic concerns and dissatisfaction with the direction of China's financial system. This goes beyond China – it's about global economic stability. Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct 21, 2023
🚨BIG MOVES YESTERDAY🚨

The economy is heading for a soft landing, the Fed has the banks covered, what could possibly be wrong?

1/6 Swap spreads just plunged. It's been coming for some time and w/Fed backing off rate hikes, has to be something else. Image
2/6 Gold surged. Recent move is geopolitics, sure, but there's a lot more than just the Middle East here, especially that last two days. Image
3/6 Gold up and copper down means copper to gold ratio plunged to its lowest level since November 2020. Deflationary warning: global economy sinking, higher war risk, energy price shock, monetary mess (swaps = collateral). Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 4, 2023
🚨 🧵people now can't afford to eat!? 🧵🚨

1/ People are eating less, and it's not a matter of choice; it's a symptom of a deepening crisis. You don’t have to take my word for it. Image
2/ Rising oil prices are a significant contributor to this problem.
As oil prices surge once again, people are feeling the pain in their pockets. The situation is dire, and it's about to get even worse. Image
3/ The oil market is in turmoil.
Not only are oil prices soaring globally, but the WTI Futures curve is showing signs of trouble. Supply is dwindling, inventories are shrinking, and this is adding to the burden on consumers. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 3, 2023
🧵Is #BTC poised to replace the dollar?🧵
1/ it won’t unless it replicates what Euro$ system does. Since Euro$ breakdown in ‘07, door is wide open for competing reserve; no one has come close to stepping up. From earliest days, Euro$ became history’s pre-eminent medium Image
2/ Elasticity is important in reserve currencies, but so is discipline and restraint. There has to be a middle ground. Hard money, like #BTC or gold, advocates for limited currency supply, encouraging efficiency in economic systems though at the expense of flexibility. Image
3/ Bitcoin offers a decentralized ledger which already eliminates the need for traditional banks. The Euro$ is already a ledger system though one operated unnecessarily by banks. A fully decentralized ledger has the promise of separating money and intermediation, which is needed. Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 29, 2022
LEFTOVERS from the week of June 24, 2022.

PBOC conspires w/BIS to pretend there's an RMB pool; Chinese industry really struggling; recession data keeps coming in the US; what the real monetary system saying about inflation.

instagram.com/p/CfXzRb-jJpz/
Option #1: Uh, That's Not RMB

PBOC teamed up with BIS, five other CBs, and pretty much all of the media to pretend its new liquidity pool is about its currency rather than eurodollar. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 22, 2022
LEFTOVERS from the week of June 17, 2022.

Crypto winter; Dollar destruction Cayman Islands; Bank of England wins the prize no central bank wants; What if Shanghai reopens and nothing (good) happens?

instagram.com/p/CfF0mfPDps7/
Option #1: Winter Is Here

Bitcoin, crytpo, digital everything. Coinbase laying off a huge chunk of workers. Gemini, too. What went wrong? What's left to go right?
Read 7 tweets

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