🧵 1/10 Euphoria over the latest payroll report, but let’s dig deeper. The big jump in the Establishment Survey was expected, we’ve been waiting for a “smoothing” month. This pattern is typical during cyclical changes. #Economy #LaborMarket 2/10 The CPS also showed improvement in September, but if this was a true turnaround, we'd expect an increase in hours worked and a rise in temporary hires—neither of which happened. #JobsReport

The US economy has been on the clock for over a year. That's not unusual at all, in fact it's exactly how recessions go every single time.

And it looks like time has finally run out.
🧵 Every business cycle looks almost exactly the same from the perspective of unemployment. The unemployment rate will meander higher for months at a time, even more than a year.

Everyone says how strong and resilient the economy is...until it all just goes to hell.

What happens now that Fed rate cutting is on deck? To hear basically everyone tell it, nothing much. The economy is already a little weak, the FOMC cuts a couple times, presto, gentle glide to join Goldilocks.

It's a nice story but like the Three Bears it's a fairy tale.
🧵 There is no wiggle room on this. Rate cuts are 100% ineffective. Going back to 1982 when it began (and even before if you look at effective fed funds in '81-82), NOT ONCE has rate cuts done anything to alleviate unemployment.

100% failure.

The June US CPI was a lot more troubling than people seem to realize. It wasn't just disinflationary, the core rate in particular was too disinflationary.

This doesn't normally happen; in fact, the core measure is made so that it doesn't outside of only the biggest cases. The last time the core CPI did something like this was, of course, 2008 and 2009. In '09, the sudden downturn signaled there was no recovery; it had already gone off the rails and was never going to be put back on.

So much more to gold story. It's not just an all-time high, it has left silver in the dust. That's a critical clue since silver should at least be sticking with gold, if not catching back up, both being precious metals.

Gold/silver ratio isn't normalizing because of silver. In recent years, gold/silver ratio surges when faced w/global recession risk/reality. Gold jumps on hedge demand while silver stays weak as industrial use falls off more than higher demand as other precious metal.

Critical fundamental warning about darkening future.

Is the stock market about to crash? Why does the stock market keep soaring to record highs?

Most people are taught to interpret those highs as something to do with the health of the economy and its future prospects.

If you want to know when the dollar will collapse read this
🧵👇 First off, it's crucial to understand the difference between the dollar and the eurodollar.

They're not the same thing.

The eurodollar is dollar-denominated claims outside the U.S., and it's the backbone of the global financial system.

🧵👇

The Fed is winding down its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), the emergency tool created during last year's banking crisis. But there's more to this than meets the eye. Let's dive into what this really means. The BTFP was a quick fix during a crisis, offering banks easy loans. But as we've seen, easy fixes often lead to unanticipated consequences.

Now, the Fed is shifting gears back to the Discount Window as a BTFP replacement. But why the sudden shift to the Discount Window?

Things are getting REALLY Serious in china.
1/🧵👇

Recent events in China are raising eyebrows across the globe.

A series of high-profile officials have mysteriously vanished or been ousted, signaling potential political upheaval.
Let's unpack this. 2/ 🧵
It all started with Qin Gang, China's foreign minister, who disappeared in June. This was followed by changes in other key positions, including the Governor of the People's Bank of China.

🚨BIG MOVES YESTERDAY🚨

The economy is heading for a soft landing, the Fed has the banks covered, what could possibly be wrong?

1/6 Swap spreads just plunged. It's been coming for some time and w/Fed backing off rate hikes, has to be something else. 2/6 Gold surged. Recent move is geopolitics, sure, but there's a lot more than just the Middle East here, especially that last two days.

🚨 🧵people now can't afford to eat!? 🧵🚨

1/ People are eating less, and it's not a matter of choice; it's a symptom of a deepening crisis. You don’t have to take my word for it. 2/ Rising oil prices are a significant contributor to this problem.
As oil prices surge once again, people are feeling the pain in their pockets. The situation is dire, and it's about to get even worse.

🧵Is #BTC poised to replace the dollar?🧵
1/ it won’t unless it replicates what Euro$ system does. Since Euro$ breakdown in ‘07, door is wide open for competing reserve; no one has come close to stepping up. From earliest days, Euro$ became history’s pre-eminent medium 2/ Elasticity is important in reserve currencies, but so is discipline and restraint. There has to be a middle ground. Hard money, like #BTC or gold, advocates for limited currency supply, encouraging efficiency in economic systems though at the expense of flexibility.

LEFTOVERS from the week of June 24, 2022.

PBOC conspires w/BIS to pretend there's an RMB pool; Chinese industry really struggling; recession data keeps coming in the US; what the real monetary system saying about inflation.

instagram.com/p/CfXzRb-jJpz/ instagram.com/p/CfXzRb-jJpz/

LEFTOVERS from the week of June 17, 2022.

Crypto winter; Dollar destruction Cayman Islands; Bank of England wins the prize no central bank wants; What if Shanghai reopens and nothing (good) happens?

instagram.com/p/CfF0mfPDps7/ instagram.com/p/CfF0mfPDps7/

LEFTOVERS from the week of June 10, 2022.

Record low consumer sentiment; Energy in the CPI, but what else; Jobless claims low but rising; For there to be inflation there needs to be money but never is.

instagram.com/p/CezwPp0jEhw/ instagram.com/p/CezwPp0jEhw/

LEFTOVERS from the week of June 3, 2022.

Jobs data wasn't good; this time really weak data can't be blamed on the corona; globally synchronized from Germany; globally synchronized from Japan

Recession Risk Edition.

instagram.com/p/CehwQlmD9T9/ instagram.com/p/CehwQlmD9T9/

LEFTOVERS from the week of May 27, 2022.

The inventory flood is both real and 'real'; US consumers run out of room; US consumers run out of gas; Euro$ futures inversion has evolved, and not in a good way.

What's the most pressing issue?

instagram.com/p/CePcBeEj-XX/ instagram.com/p/CePcBeEj-XX/

LEFTOVERS from the week of May 20, 2022.

Key ST USTs take on Powell. How RMB connects US$s. Trouble in Philly. Foreigners don't hate-sell their USTs.

instagram.com/p/Cd7RKX4ja1R/ instagram.com/p/Cd7RKX4ja1R/

Rather than charts, this week vote on which of David Parkin's past masterworks might best represent what's going on right now, and what the world risks in the months ahead.

Sadly, I could only pick four when there's dozens.

davidparkins.com

instagram.com/p/CdmeZu5Dbll/ instagram.com/p/CdmeZu5Dbll/

As the (euro)dollar continues to blow up China, it's also getting a further stranglehold on the rest of the world, too.

It's pretty much all of the. Tour of the dollar's growing destruction, starting with the euro nearing parity.

alhambrapartners.com/2022/05/12/syn… "Everyone" kept saying it was the dollar going to collapse. Why do they all get it backward?

Euro$ #5.

alhambrapartners.com/2022/05/12/syn…

Collateral & Eurobonds.

Collateral shortage & junk Eurobonds.

Marriage made in money hell.

alhambrapartners.com/2022/05/10/eur… In 2017, emerging markets flooded Eurobond markets.

In 2021, African countries flooded Eurobond markets.

Are these bond markets the stupid money? Don't answer that question just yet.

alhambrapartners.com/2022/05/10/eur…