Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jan 30 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
FT writes about the new dynamics in the conflict between President Zelensky and Commander in Chief Zaluzhny

Yesterday something strange, almost bizarre happened. The Ukrainian social media went up in arms on the rumors that Zelensky dismissed Zaluzhny 1/ Image
Everyone cited their anonymous sources in the government and military. Ukrainian media went on record saying the commander is fired.

Then an hour later the office of the president officially denied that Zaluzhny is fired. So media and opinion leaders apologized and reversed 2/
Anyway, FT writes that Zelenskyy is preparing to replace Zaluzhny nonetheless. He has served as commander-in-chief of the armed forces since 2021. This would be the biggest shake-up of Ukraine's military leadership since the full-scale invasion began. 3/
FT says that Zelenskyy offered Zaluzhny a new role as a defense adviser, but Zaluzhny refused. Sources indicate Zelenskyy made clear Zaluzhny would be removed regardless. A decision was made to dismiss him, but it may be delayed due to the uproar the move has caused. 4/
For many months, there have been reports of mounting tensions between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny, coming to a head after Ukraine's stalled counteroffensive last November. Zelenskyy's office rebuked the general for terming the war a "stalemate." 5/
Zaluzhny enjoys widespread popularity and trust among both Ukraine's military and general population. His dismissal could negatively impact army morale at a critical juncture of the war. It could also unsettle Ukraine's Western partners. 6/
However, I have personally heard very mixed opinions about how widespread this support is 7/
FT writes that potential replacements include ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky and military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov, both of whom are closer to Zelenskyy. Zaluzhny is credited with key Ukrainian successes against Russia. I have heard similar rumors too 8/

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More from @Mylovanov

Jan 31
War in Ukraine Has Weakened Putin, C.I.A. Director Writes in @nytimes

CIA director William Burns says the war in Ukraine has "quietly corroded" Putin's power and created disaffection among Russia's leadership and people. This allows the CIA to recruit more Russian spies 1/
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Burns says Putin looked detached and indecisive in handling the mutiny by Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last year. This revealed weaknesses even though Putin settled the score 2/
Russia's economy has been deeply damaged by the war and it is becoming more dependent on China. Over 300,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jan 30
A missed development in the war in Ukraine

Ukraine’s developed capability to strike deep inside Russia with drones on targets like fuel depots, arms factories, and far military bases

This brings by a war home to Russia and limits its ability to earn oil export revenue 1/ Image
Ukraine's latest strikes are increasingly deeper into Russia. On January 29, the governor of Russia's Yaroslavl region, Mikhail Evraev, says that the "Slavneft-YANOS" oil refinery in Yaroslavl was attacked by a drone. Yaroslavl is more than 700 km away from Ukraine 2/
On January 25, a fire broke out at a Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse, Krasnodar Territory. According to eyewitnesses, the oil depot was struck by a drone. Tuapse is more than 500 kilometers from the territory controlled by Ukraine. 3/ Image
Read 14 tweets
Jan 29
Do Sanctions Work? Yes. Especially if they are enforced. Here is the evidence we presented last week at the Council of Europe of Strasbourg

1. Sanctions have an impact and force Russian regime into tough policy response

$113 bn – lost oil exports due to war & sanctions 1/ Image
$55 bn – lost natural gas exports due to failed weaponization of flows to Europe

63% – drop in trade surplus in 2023 vs. 2022

79% – drop in current account surplus in 2023 vs. 2022

$275 bn – capital outflows Q1 2022 - Q3 2023 2/ Image
Ruble devaluation and depletion of macro buffers

~40% – loss of ruble value vs. US dollar since last fall

~$300 bn – lost access to CBR’s reserves

24% – lost value of the NWF in dollar terms 3/
Read 11 tweets
Jan 27
Russia imported more than $1 billion of advanced US and European chips last year, writes Bloomberg

Our @KSE_Institute investigation paints a much darker picture: just in Jan-Oct 2023, Russia imported over $8B advanced electronics and other battlefield goods

Who sells? 1/ Image
Here is the list of companies with Intel, Analog Devices, AMD, and Texas Instruments leading the way

Producers from sanction coalition countries, including the U.S. and the EU, were responsible for 44% of Russian battlefield goods imports in January-October 2023. 2/ Image
The U.S. companies account for the largest amounts of trade – 26% or over $2B 3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 26
Miracles happen

Slovakian Prime Minister Fico met with Ukrainian counterpart Shmygal and they fell in (diplomatic) love. There are no disagreements anymore. Parties agreed:

1. Slovakia will not block Ukraine's purchases of weapons and equipment from Slovak businesses 1/ Image
2. Slovakia will support the Ukraine Facility program which provides 50 billion euro to Ukraine from the EU

3. Slovakia confirmed its full support for Ukraine's European integration aspirations 2/
4. Cooperate on deliveries by a Slovak company of equipment to build defense lines

5. Emphasized importance of developing military-technical cooperation on a commercial basis 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Jan 25
Back in Kyiv from Davos, my feelings are mixed, as they always are when I return. It's this contrast between the war's danger here and Europe's safety. Logically, I should feel happier there, but the opposite is true. I'm happy to be back in Ukraine and uneasy when away 1/ Image
Clearly I am traumatized by the war. When I slept in Zürich in a hotel over the last weekend, I would get Stratford by loud sounds, say, a neighbor slamming a door in the middle of the night, because it would momentarily confuse me and remind about missile expositions 2/
Then, a moment later, I realize I am in the safety of Europe, there are no missiles, and can go on sleeping. Yet, it doesn’t make me happier 3/
Read 6 tweets

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