Thread by @Mylovanov

A missed development in the war in Ukraine

Ukraine’s developed capability to strike deep inside Russia with drones on targets like fuel depots, arms factories, and far military bases

This brings by a war home to Russia and limits its ability to earn oil export revenue 1/

Ukraine's latest strikes are increasingly deeper into Russia. On January 29, the governor of Russia's Yaroslavl region, Mikhail Evraev, says that the "Slavneft-YANOS" oil refinery in Yaroslavl was attacked by a drone. Yaroslavl is more than 700 km away from Ukraine 2/

On January 25, a fire broke out at a Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse, Krasnodar Territory. According to eyewitnesses, the oil depot was struck by a drone. Tuapse is more than 500 kilometers from the territory controlled by Ukraine. 3/

"The SBU strikes deep into the Russian Federation and continues attacks on facilities which are not only important for the Russian economy, but also provide fuel for the enemy troops," the source told Reuters. 3/

January 21 was a loud day in several regions of Russia. In the Leningrad region of the Russian Federation, explosions occurred at a large gas terminal of the Novatek company, owned by Gennady Timchenko, a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin. 4/

The governor of the Leningrad region, Alexander Drozdenko, said that a fire broke out in the port of Ust-Luga. It is located more than 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. 5/

So far, five oil processing plants and two ports have been struck, with many more expected to follow shortly.

Today’s reports of an explosion at a power plant infrastructure in Russia might be unrelated, but it is a question of time until Ukraine starts striking these targets /

Later that night, it was reported that drones had hit the Shcheglovsky Val plant in Tula. It is known from open sources that this is one of the largest defense industry enterprises in Russia. Pantsir-S anti-aircraft missile systems are assembled there. 7/

On December 27, 2023, the head of the Ministry of Strategic Industries, Oleksandr Kamyshin, said "We launched production in a series. Now we produce dozens of them. Next year, the Armed Forces may receive more than a thousand of these drones, which can fly for 1000+ kilometers”8/

Russia claims it only hits military sites in Ukraine, but Ukraine argues it regularly strikes civilian targets. Ukraine says it has the right to target any Russian assets connected to the war effort with your weapon. 9/

Analysts say the attacks in Russia are straining its air defenses and could put pressure on oil refineries and other energy infrastructure that may be hard to repair quickly due to sanctions. 10/

Some Russian nationalists argue the attacks mean Russia should escalate and declare full mobilization for war, though Putin has avoided this so far during the "special military operation." 11/

The bottom line is that two sides can play any game Russia starts. If Russia targets Ukraine with drones, Ukraine will develop capabilities and retaliate.

Missiles are more difficult, but it is also likely to be a question of time for Ukraine 12X

Sources:
1.
2. Ukrainian drones hit Rosneft refinery in Russia - Reuters:
3. Russia's Novatek resumes fuel loadings at damaged Ust-Luga terminal - Reuters:
4. Україна запустила серійне виробництво аналога "Шахеда" - УП:
5. Вибухи на заводі з виробництва "Панцирів" в Тулі - UAinfo:
6. Ukraine’s strikes on targets inside Russia hurt Putin’s efforts to show the war isn’t hitting home - APNews: XXsuspilne.media/672044-za-700-…
reuters.com/world/europe/u…
reuters.com/world/europe/r…
pravda.com.ua/news/2023/12/2…
uainfo.org/blognews/17058…
apnews.com/article/russia…