Thread by @Tatarigami_UA

In late 2022 - early 2023, amid Ukrainian artillery shortages, Frontelligence Insight observed a pattern: Russian forces, due to limited Ukrainian counteraction, occupied stationary artillery positions for long periods. Our team now notes the resurgence of this pattern. 🧵Thread:

2/ In January, our team recorded 14 concentrations of artillery and enemy forces, echoing Spring 2023 observations. In this example, vehicle revetments were stocked with supplies and vehicles. We have monitored this specific operational site persisting for multiple weeks

3/ Importantly, this doesn't mean a total loss of Ukraine's counter-battery capabilities. Multiple OSINT projects consistently document Russian artillery losses. Nevertheless, the prevailing pattern highlights a present challenge of inadequate counter-battery fire.

4/ This allows Russia to employ a familiar tactic: the complete destruction of urban areas, making them indefensible and asserting a claim of "liberation" afterward. Mar’inka is a good example, where the entire town was obliterated

5/ Based on our observations, numerous artillery pieces are positioned at distances ranging from 15 to 24 kilometers away from the frontline, rendering them beyond the practical reach of many small FPVs—unless equipped with retransmitting drones to boost their signal.

6/ Despite several successful FPV engagements with enemy artillery, these cases are limited and lack the widespread influence needed to significantly impact the overall situation. We anticipate a shift over time, but at this moment the impact is relatively small.

7/ In summary, Ukraine faces increasing challenges countering Russian artillery, providing Russia an opportunity to inflict significant damage and losses. Urgent EU or US measures, such as supplying additional artillery and ammunition, are crucial to mitigate the problem.

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