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Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
@heimbergecon
Feb 2 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Richest five families in Florence 🇮🇹 from 1427 are still the richest today (archival data). Not only the top shows persistence. Any family who was in the (1427) top third is almost certain to still be there today. Likely many Florences out there

Paper in Review of Econ Studies Image
Source: academic.oup.com/restud/article…
Short free-access summary:

cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…
Image

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More from @heimbergecon

Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
Aug 17, 2023
Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth? My meta-analysis is out in the September issue of Journal of Economic Surveys. By analysing 816 estimates, I find
- publication bias in favour of negative growth effects
- no uniform public-debt-to-GDP threshold

Summary 🧵 Image
Reinhart/Rogoff (2010) had an impact on the policy debate; policy-makers used their results (threshold in public-debt-to-GDP of 90% beyond which growth slows) to argue for austerity. But what does the evidence tell us about growth effects of higher public debt? /2 Image
Several papers argue that there is indeed evidence for a negative causal effect of higher public-debt-to-GDP ratios on economic growth, and for a (close to) 90% threshold in the public-debt-to-GDP-ratio beyond which growth falls significantly. /3 Image
Read 16 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
May 6, 2023
How did Italy become the Eurozone's Achilles heel, the monetary union's most vulnerable spot? In a new working paper, we answer this question by reassessing Italy's long decline in the context of European integration and globalisation 🧵 Image
Italy is the Eurozone's Achilles heel; its large economy has fallen behind other Eurozone peers; given the Eurozone's institutions and rules, there are constantly questions on how to manage Italy's high public debt under constraints on monetary, fiscal, industrial and wage policy Image
We use a new structuralist framework to synthesise different supply-side and demand-side explanations for Italy's decline. Image
Read 9 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
Apr 6, 2023
We need to promote public debate on fiscal policy and EU fiscal rules. Yesterday, I did a presentation in Vienna on climate investment in the context of public investment needs and EU fiscal rules reform. I stressed three main points (short thread):

1. If policymakers are serious about meeting the climate goals, they will need to significantly increase public investment for climate and energy. We are talking about *additional* public investment of at least 1% of EU GDP per year. Image
2. The European Commission has published EU fiscal rules reform orientations that were welcomed by EU finance ministers. Tough political negotiations ahead, but what's on the table will not sufficiently increase the scope for public climate investment.

Read 5 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
Mar 22, 2023
The European Parliament requested me to write a study assessing the European Commission's orientations on reforming EU fiscal rules, with a focus on Debt Sustainability Analysis as an anchor for bilateral negotiations and surveillance.

Here is a summary of my main results 🧵
The Commission’s (COM) orientations (published in November 2022) were welcomed by the conclusions of the Council of the EU on March 14th 2023. COM proposes an enhanced role for debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in assessing fiscal risks. Focus: bringing down public debt ratios.
Reform orientations:

- COM conducts a DSA for each member state projecting the public-debt-to-GDP ratio over >10 years.
- DSA inputs used to derive reference fiscal adjustment path consistent with falling debt ratio
-Negotiations COM/governments on multi-annual expenditure plans
Read 9 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
Jan 16, 2023
Let's introduce a permanent EU investment fund for climate and energy bringing additional public investment of 1% of EU GDP per year. In a new study, @alichtenberger_ and I argue this would promote the green transition and strengthen the EU economically and politically. Thread🧵
Meeting the climate goals requires additional investment. The share of public funding for climate investments needs to be significant. Additional of green public investment of at least 1% of EU economic output is need annually, which would help mobilise further private investment
The Covid-19 recovery fund (“Next Generation EU”) could serve as a model for a permanent EU investment fund. EU Commission would issue bonds and distribute money based on conditionality of supporting climate/energy goals. Member states would not be individually liable.
Read 6 tweets
Philipp Heimberger Profile picture
Sep 25, 2022
It's general election day in Italy. I have again seen lots of strange stories and statements on Italy in the international press.

So here's a data-based summary thread that may help in debunking claims about a "profligate, reform-lazy Italy", pulling all of Europe down. 🧵#CAIN
"Italy has been living beyond its means; now Italians finally need to adjust!"

In fact, 🇮🇹 has exported more goods and services than it imported since 2012 - also during the Covid crisis. Italians consume less than they produce - living below their means.
"Italy is just a debt mess at the costs of others in Europe."

In fact, private sector debt is relatively low in Italy compared to other OECD countries, which typically goes unmentioned when people complain about Italy's debt problems.
Read 17 tweets

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