Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Feb 2 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Holy moly - a huge jobs report!

479,000 new jobs with revisions, average hourly earnings up 0.6 in a single month! Let's get to the mighty monthly jobs thread...

33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
14.8m jobs = 3 yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump 1/ Image
Jobs have been created at more than 40 times the rate under Biden as under the last 3 GOP Presidents.

Note that R Presidents averaged 120,000 jobs created PER YEAR for 16 yrs, while 353,000 were created LAST MONTH alone. 2/ Image
Since 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell and a new age of globalization began, 51 million net new jobs have been created in America.

49 million of those, 96%, have been created under Democratic Presidents. Essentially all of them. 3/ Image
When Democrats are in the White House, the unemployment rate goes down. When Republicans are in the White House, it goes up. 4/ Image
Under Biden:
- best job market since 1960s, best recovery in G7, stock market breaking records, GDP growth robust
- elevated wage gains, new business formation, prime age worker participation rates
- lowest uninsured rate ever
- deficits trillions less 5/ Image
Inflation, driven by COVID, Russian invasion of Ukraine, OPEC price hikes, has come way down. Rents, mortgages, many groceries now *falling*. 6/ Image
In a new presentation I show that in recent decades it is only Dems who've made capitalism work, repeatedly bringing growth, lower deficits and America progress.

Republicans have repeatedly brought recession, higher deficits, American decline. 7/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/with-democra…
The whole narrative about the American economy is very red wavy.

It is Democrats who have brought growth and lower deficits, not Republicans.

Republicans have repeatedly brought recession and spiraling deficits, and repeatedly let America down. 8/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/with-democra…
Joe Biden is a good President. The country is far better off.

The Democratic Party is strong, and winning elections across the US.

And they have Trump, the most unfit Presidential candidate ever.

We can and should win. More 👇9/

If you want to dive deeper into the data showing how much better the economy does under Democrats check out my new post 👇10/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/holy-moly-an…

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More from @SimonWDC

Nov 21
OMG @YouTube my video about the 2024 election was just taken down because I criticized Robert Kennedy for his anti-vaxx views and the impact they would have if implemented. You have to be kidding me.
I was accused of spreading medical misinformation and required to take an on-line course, which I did.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5
Heading into Election night, Trump:
- is not leading in the battleground early vote
- is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters
- did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris

There is no data right now suggesting he's winning
9 of 10 forecasters went into E-D with Harris now ahead:

The more rigorous @washingtonpost battleground averages have Harris winning the election today.

The right may have invented data, maps, Polymarket voodoo showing Trump leading but in the real world Harris has outperformed him and is winning. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5
Some Election Day thoughts:
- Ds been overperforming since Dobbs, likely to do so again today. Dobbs before/after moment in US politics.
- Early vote, polling got better for Harris this week. Ds enter E-D in stronger battleground EV position than 2020. Encouraging sign. 1/
- The money, sweat and power of Dem grassroots needs far more attention. Dems now have a structural hard dollar advantage up/down the ticket, giving us bigger, more muscular campaigns w/vastly more volunteers.

Released a video on this yesterday 👇2/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-days-to-go…
VP @KamalaHarris has just turned in one of the greatest performances by an American politician in modern history. So many things could have tripped her up. None of them did. Extraordinary candidate, extraordinary campaign. She will be a great President for all of us. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Nov 4
Via TargetEarly, it is now official - Dems head into E-Day in a stronger position in the battleground early vote than 2020. More D post-Dobbs overperformance.

Rs big campaign to make gains in the early vote has failed, and their EV "memos" are just pure bullshit. Image
Cannot overstate how delusional and full of lying and fuckery Trump/right spin has been:
- flooding the zone with red wave polls
- outright lies about the early vote
- memory holing 2 1/2 years of GOP poll underperformance incl Trump
- Polymarket Voodoo!
I go deeper into latest polling/early vote data below.

The bottom line - the election is clearly breaking towards us now. Harris just had best week of polling. Early vote is good, keeps getting better. Red wave polls sign of Trumpian desperation.

Read 6 tweets
Oct 26
Early vote notes, via TargetEarly:
- Ds running much better in battleground than natl early vote (=better campaign)
- Ds running even w/Rs in battleground vs. 2020
- Ds running ahead of 2020 in GA/MI/NE-2/WI
- Ds closing gap in AZ/NC/NV/PA
Rs not winning battleground early vote
And a general reminder that Rs would not be flooding the zone with dozens of polls and creating betting market voodoo if they believed they were winning the election and everything was fine. You only cheat when you are losing.
When I say AZ/NC/NV/PA are closing the gap I mean against how we are performed there vs 2020. While we have a lead in the raw vote in PA, we are not performing there as well as we did in 2020. All of this data is vs. 2020.

Bottom line - we had a good week all.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 21
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-new-polls-…
Read 15 tweets

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