479,000 new jobs with revisions, average hourly earnings up 0.6 in a single month! Let's get to the mighty monthly jobs thread...
33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
14.8m jobs = 3 yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump 1/
Jobs have been created at more than 40 times the rate under Biden as under the last 3 GOP Presidents.
Note that R Presidents averaged 120,000 jobs created PER YEAR for 16 yrs, while 353,000 were created LAST MONTH alone. 2/
Since 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell and a new age of globalization began, 51 million net new jobs have been created in America.
49 million of those, 96%, have been created under Democratic Presidents. Essentially all of them. 3/
When Democrats are in the White House, the unemployment rate goes down. When Republicans are in the White House, it goes up. 4/
Under Biden:
- best job market since 1960s, best recovery in G7, stock market breaking records, GDP growth robust
- elevated wage gains, new business formation, prime age worker participation rates
- lowest uninsured rate ever
- deficits trillions less 5/
Inflation, driven by COVID, Russian invasion of Ukraine, OPEC price hikes, has come way down. Rents, mortgages, many groceries now *falling*. 6/
In a new presentation I show that in recent decades it is only Dems who've made capitalism work, repeatedly bringing growth, lower deficits and America progress.
OMG @YouTube my video about the 2024 election was just taken down because I criticized Robert Kennedy for his anti-vaxx views and the impact they would have if implemented. You have to be kidding me.
Heading into Election night, Trump:
- is not leading in the battleground early vote
- is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters
- did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris
There is no data right now suggesting he's winning
Some Election Day thoughts:
- Ds been overperforming since Dobbs, likely to do so again today. Dobbs before/after moment in US politics.
- Early vote, polling got better for Harris this week. Ds enter E-D in stronger battleground EV position than 2020. Encouraging sign. 1/
- The money, sweat and power of Dem grassroots needs far more attention. Dems now have a structural hard dollar advantage up/down the ticket, giving us bigger, more muscular campaigns w/vastly more volunteers.
VP @KamalaHarris has just turned in one of the greatest performances by an American politician in modern history. So many things could have tripped her up. None of them did. Extraordinary candidate, extraordinary campaign. She will be a great President for all of us. 3/
Via TargetEarly, it is now official - Dems head into E-Day in a stronger position in the battleground early vote than 2020. More D post-Dobbs overperformance.
Rs big campaign to make gains in the early vote has failed, and their EV "memos" are just pure bullshit.
Cannot overstate how delusional and full of lying and fuckery Trump/right spin has been:
- flooding the zone with red wave polls
- outright lies about the early vote
- memory holing 2 1/2 years of GOP poll underperformance incl Trump
- Polymarket Voodoo!
I go deeper into latest polling/early vote data below.
The bottom line - the election is clearly breaking towards us now. Harris just had best week of polling. Early vote is good, keeps getting better. Red wave polls sign of Trumpian desperation.
Early vote notes, via TargetEarly:
- Ds running much better in battleground than natl early vote (=better campaign)
- Ds running even w/Rs in battleground vs. 2020
- Ds running ahead of 2020 in GA/MI/NE-2/WI
- Ds closing gap in AZ/NC/NV/PA
Rs not winning battleground early vote
And a general reminder that Rs would not be flooding the zone with dozens of polls and creating betting market voodoo if they believed they were winning the election and everything was fine. You only cheat when you are losing.
When I say AZ/NC/NV/PA are closing the gap I mean against how we are performed there vs 2020. While we have a lead in the raw vote in PA, we are not performing there as well as we did in 2020. All of this data is vs. 2020.
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/ hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/ hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-new-polls-…