GeniusThinking Profile picture
Feb 3, 2024 16 tweets 5 min read Read on X
A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that ruins decision-making.

The 12 most powerful cognitive biases I've found: Image
Parkinson's Law: work expands to fill the time given.

When we have more time, we tend to procrastinate and become inefficient.

A good reminder to track your tasks duration and energy level. Image
Goodhart's Law:

When a measure becomes a goal, it stops being a good measure.

I.g: Exams and standard admission shifted the focus of education.

It's no longer about the students, but about grades and pay. Image
The Curse of Knowledge:

Experts assume everyone knows what they know.

But they struggle to teach or lead effectively for those still learning.

Simplicity is an art. Image
The Bandwagon Effect:

We humans are social creatures, which has its benefits.

But there's a downside too...

We often follow the crowd without thinking, just because everyone else is doing it.

Beware of the Bandwagon Effect, it's like "groupthink" and can be risky. Image
Egocentric Bias:

We tend to think more highly of ourselves than we should.

In group activities, we overestimate our contributions compared to others. Image
Cynicism

"Cynical people may seem smarter, but research suggests they're actually less intelligent.

Deep cynicism is a defense mechanism (may results in neuroticism), not a sign of true intelligent.

Moderate dose advised. Image
Skinner's Law:

• When procrastinating, you have 2 choices:

1. Make not doing it more painful than doing it.

2. Make doing it more enjoyable than not doing it. Image
Hofstadter's Law:

Projects always take longer and cost more than you expect, even when you consider Hofstadter's Law.

Double the time, triple the cost—despite your best calculations. Image
Elon's Law:

Beat Hofstadter's Law with an insanely ambitious deadline. Even if it takes 3x longer, you're still ahead of the game.

Elon Musk missing his super deadlines is a feature, not a bug. Image
Loss Aversion

Discovered by scientists Tversky and Kahneman, it reveals that the pain of losing is stronger than the pleasure of winning.

As a result, humans will go to greater lengths to avoid losses than to pursue gains. Image
Hitchen's Razor:

Claims without evidence can't be verified. When in doubt, clarify and ask for proof. Image
The Discomfort Zone Razor:

Embrace discomfort for growth.

Seek comfort and for stagnation.

1000 uncomfortable hours > 10,000 comfortable hours. Image
Occam's Razor:

• Simple assumptions are often right.

• Don't overcomplicate things with too many assumptions. Image
If you want my collection of mental models, cognitive biases, and cognitive tendencies, grab a copy of my product here:

feynmanism.gumroad.com/l/mentalmodels
If you enjoyed this content, consider giving @feynmanism a follow and check out my Feynman Technique Notion template:

feynmanism.gumroad.com/l/feynmantechn…

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More from @GeniusGTX

Jan 17
I used to be stressed out of my mind and wasted years making terrible decisions.

Then I spent hours studying Charlie Munger’s letters to learn his mental models on decision-making & problem solving.

Here're are the top 5 I've collected: 🧵 Image
Image
Why do you need Mental Models?

Most people try to solve problems with raw intelligence. It's exhausting.

Munger says: "To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

You need a toolbox. Models don't tell you what to think, but how to think.

Here're Munger's best 5: Image
1. Inversion

"Tell me where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there."

Don't just look for the secret to success. Figure out exactly what causes failure—and avoid that.

It is far easier to avoid stupidity than it is to achieve genius.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 16
A "Paradox" is a statement that seems contradictory but actually contains a hidden truth.

Once you see them, your worldview changes forever.

Here are my 10 favorite mind-bending paradoxes that will upgrade your thinking & decision making: 🧵

1. The Paradox of Choice Image
1. The Paradox of Choice:

Logic says more options = more freedom. Psychology says more options = anxiety and analysis paralysis.

When you have too many choices, you are less likely to pick one, and less satisfied with the one you do pick.

Constraints create creativity. Image
2. The Stockdale Paradox:

Named after Admiral James Stockdale, a prisoner of war for 7 years.

He survived by doing two contradictory things:

• Maintaining faith that he would prevail in the end.
• Confronting the brutal facts of his current reality.

Blind optimism kills. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 15
I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵
1. The Spotlight Effect:

We constantly overestimate how much people notice our appearance or mistakes.

The truth? Everyone is too worried about themselves to worry about you.

You are not the main character in their movie. Image
2. Survivorship Bias:

We focus on the winners and ignore the losers.

We study the college dropout billionaires but ignore the thousands of dropouts who failed.

Success leaves clues, but failure teaches lessons. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 2
Mental models are rules of thumb that simplify any decisions.

Elon Musk is a big believer in it.

Not only Musk, but also Charlie Munger, Jeff Bezos, and Steve Jobs.

These are 7 of the most powerful mental models from history's greatest thinkers: 🧵 Image
1. First Principles (Elon Musk)

Musk didn't accept that rockets had to cost $65M.

He looked at the raw materials: carbon fiber, metal, fuel. The cost was only 2% of the ticket price.

He realized the "high cost" was just industry inefficiency.

Don't copy; reason from physics. Image
P.S. If you want my complete collection of the best, most useful mental models, cognitive biases, and mental fallacies, grab a free copy here:



Now back to the thread. 👇besuperhuman.gumroad.com/l/mentalmodels
Read 11 tweets
Jan 1
I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵

1. Survivorship Bias: Image
1. Survivorship Bias:

We focus on the winners and ignore the losers.

We study the college dropout billionaires but ignore the thousands of dropouts who failed.

Success leaves clues, but failure teaches lessons. Image
2. The Sunk Cost Fallacy:

We cling to things just because we’ve already invested time or money in them.

We refuse to quit a bad job or project because we "can't let that effort go to waste."

Don't throw good time after bad. Image
Read 13 tweets
Dec 30, 2025
I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵

1. Parkinson's Law: Image
1. Parkinson's Law

Work expands to fill the time you give it.

Give yourself a week? It takes a week.
Give yourself an hour? Done in 60 minutes.

The fix: Track task duration and energy levels ruthlessly. Image
2. Goodhart's Law

When a measure becomes a goal, it stops being a good measure.

Exams were meant to test learning.
Now? Schools chase scores, not education.

The metric became the mission—and the mission died. Image
Read 16 tweets

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