I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a built-in glitch in our brain that quietly sabotages good decisions.

Here're 11 more craziest and most dangerous cognitive biases I've found: 🧵

1. Survivorship Bias:

https://twitter.com/1616717958411059202/status/2052016156828221521

1/ Survivorship Bias:

We study the habits of billionaire college dropouts, but completely ignore the millions who went broke.

Success leaves clues, but failure teaches the real lessons.

I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a built-in glitch in our brain that quietly sabotages good decisions.

These are the 11 craziest and most dangerous cognitive biases I've found: 👇

1. The Cobra Effect 1. Cobra Effect

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

e.g. A government paying bounties for dead cobras, prompting people to breed them for cash.

A solution can make the original problem worse.

Look at second-order consequences.

Rich people collect fancy watches.

I collect mental models. They are timeless rules of thumb that simplify any difficult decisions.

7 most powerful (and dangerous) mental models I've found:

1. The Power of Walking 1. The Power of Walking

When bored and lacking ideas, keep walking until the day becomes interesting.

The man who heals what therapists can't:

Niccolo Machiavelli

It's impossible to be psychologically trapped, stressed, or anxious after reading his teachings.

Here's his 4-step guide to unlocking mental freedom and self mastery: 🧵
By his late 20s, Machiavelli had risen to one of the highest diplomatic ranks in the Florentine Republic.

For over a decade, he navigated the most treacherous, backstabbing political landscape in Europe.

In 1967, the US government gave prime Muhammad Ali 2 options:

1. Go fight in the Vietnam War
2. Go to prison for 5 years

Everyone thought this was the end of Ali.

They were RIGHT. He chose option 3...
And what he did next made him one of the greatest fighters of all time: 🧵 To understand what they took from him, you first need to understand what he was.

Ali at 25 was undefeated, undisputed heavyweight champion of the world.

Sports Illustrated called him simply "the most beautiful athlete of the 20th century."

These were supposed to be his years.

Rich people collect fancy watches.

I collect useful mental models—timeless rules of thumb that simplify decisions.

12 most powerful (and dangerous) mental models I've found:

1. The Power of Walking 1/ The Bloom-Bilal Rule:

When bored and lacking ideas, keep walking until the day becomes interesting. (via @sahilbloom + @bzaidi)

It took me 18 years to beat overthinking and think clearly. I'll tell you how in 3 minutes...

7 mental models to improve your thinking and decision making today:

1. Steel Manning. Before you argue, build the strongest possible version of the opposing view.

Not the weak, easy-to-attack version.

The version that actually challenges you.

The person who can argue both sides clearly is the only one who truly understands the problem.

I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵

1. Survivorship Bias: 1. Survivorship Bias:

We focus on the winners and ignore the losers.

We study the college dropout billionaires but ignore the thousands of dropouts who failed.

Success leaves clues, but failure teaches lessons.

I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵

1. Survivorship Bias: 1. Survivorship Bias:

We focus on the winners and ignore the losers.

We study the college dropout billionaires but ignore the thousands of dropouts who failed.

Success leaves clues, but failure teaches lessons.

PHILOSOPHICAL RAZORS are a mental rule of thumbs that "shaves off" bad explanations and stupidity in your decision-making.

Here are the 8 sharpest Razors to upgrade your thinking instantly: 🧵
1/ Occam's Razor

The simplest explanation is usually the correct one.

If you hear hoofbeats in Texas, think horses, not zebras.

Don't overcomplicate solutions. Complexity is often just a mask for confusion.

He was the most powerful man on earth:

Marcus Aurelius.

He wrote "Meditations" to keep himself sane while ruling an empire. He never intended for it to be published.

Here are 8 of his best short ideas from one of the greatest stoics in history:
1. The Obstacle is the Way

"The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way."

Stop wishing for things to be easy.
Use the challenge as fuel.

The struggle isn't blocking the path, it *is* the path.

I used to be stressed out of my mind and wasted years making terrible decisions.

Then I spent hours studying Charlie Munger’s letters to learn his mental models on decision-making & problem solving.

Here're are the top 5 I've collected: 🧵
Why do you need Mental Models?

Most people try to solve problems with raw intelligence. It's exhausting.

Munger says: "To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail."

You need a toolbox. Models don't tell you what to think, but how to think.

Here're Munger's best 5:

A "Paradox" is a statement that seems contradictory but actually contains a hidden truth.

Once you see them, your worldview changes forever.

Here are my 10 favorite mind-bending paradoxes that will upgrade your thinking & decision making: 🧵

1. The Paradox of Choice 1. The Paradox of Choice:

Logic says more options = more freedom. Psychology says more options = anxiety and analysis paralysis.

When you have too many choices, you are less likely to pick one, and less satisfied with the one you do pick.

Constraints create creativity.

I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵 1. The Spotlight Effect:

We constantly overestimate how much people notice our appearance or mistakes.

The truth? Everyone is too worried about themselves to worry about you.

You are not the main character in their movie.

Mental models are rules of thumb that simplify any decisions.

Elon Musk is a big believer in it.

Not only Musk, but also Charlie Munger, Jeff Bezos, and Steve Jobs.

These are 7 of the most powerful mental models from history's greatest thinkers: 🧵 1. First Principles (Elon Musk)

Musk didn't accept that rockets had to cost $65M.

He looked at the raw materials: carbon fiber, metal, fuel. The cost was only 2% of the ticket price.

He realized the "high cost" was just industry inefficiency.

Don't copy; reason from physics.

I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵

1. Survivorship Bias: 1. Survivorship Bias:

We focus on the winners and ignore the losers.

We study the college dropout billionaires but ignore the thousands of dropouts who failed.

Success leaves clues, but failure teaches lessons.

I'm obsessed with cognitive biases.

A "cognitive bias" is a systematic error in thinking that destroys decision-making.

11 most powerful (and dangerous) cognitive biases I've found: 🧵

1. Parkinson's Law: 1. Parkinson's Law

Work expands to fill the time you give it.

Give yourself a week? It takes a week.
Give yourself an hour? Done in 60 minutes.

The fix: Track task duration and energy levels ruthlessly.

I used to think people were rational.

Then I found FBI files on Hanns Scharff's "weaponized kindness" technique.

He extracted secrets from 480 Allied pilots without breaking a sweat.

Learn his mind-boggling techniques (they're the ultimate lesson in human nature):
Picture this: 1943, Nazi Germany.

A captured American fighter pilot expects torture.

Instead, his interrogator offers homemade apple strudel and asks about his hometown.

The pilot relaxes. Fatal mistake.

Meet Hanns Scharff - the man who weaponized kindness.

Mental models are rules of thumb that simplify decisions.

Elon Musk is a big believer in Mental Models.

Not only Musk, but also Charlie Munger, Jeff Bezos, and Steve Jobs.

I've collected 7 of the most powerful mental models from history's greatest thinkers: 🧵 1/ The Bloom-Bilal Rule:

When bored and lacking ideas, keep walking until the day becomes interesting. (via @sahilbloom + @bzaidi)

The most important skill to master for 2026:

Learning How to Learn.

Here's a 60-second system to learn and remember anything 10x faster (from a Nobel Prize-winning physicist)

The Feynman Technique: 🧵 This framework is from the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, Richard Feynman.

Known as "The Great Explainer," Feynman could break down quantum mechanics for non-scientists.

His secret? He didn't just memorize—he TRULY understood.

Rich people collect fancy watches.

I collect useful mental models—timeless rules of thumb that simplify decisions.

12 most powerful (and dangerous) mental models I've found:

1. The Power of Walking 1. The Power of Walking

When bored and lacking ideas, keep walking until the day becomes interesting. (via @sahilbloom + @bzaidi)