Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Feb 3 26 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The drama continues

Ukraine has informed the White House that President Zelensky plans to fire top commander Zaluzhny. The White House did not object, seeing it as Ukraine's sovereign choice.

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Zelensky and Zaluzhny have clashed over strategy, including Zaluzhny's call for mobilizing 500,000 more troops which Zelensky opposes 2/
Zaluzhny argues more troops are needed to counter Russia's superiority, while Zelensky cites lack of funds and political unpopularity. 3/
This is what the Washington Post and Ukrainian media write.

However, there is at least two other underlying reasons for a conflict. First, the government believes that the army doesn’t use people it recruits efficiently there are old school commanders and practices 4/
There is criticism about lack of strategy and that the army simply tries to throw bodies at the Russians. While I don’t believe it to be completely true, I agree that the Ukrainian military still has a minority but Soviet style officers and practices. Those have to go 5/
Indirectly, this criticism is acknowledge by Zaluzhny who has been recently public about the new strategy for the army and the need for production and deployment of drones rather than people 6/
The second line of the conflict is about responsibility for mobilization. Legally the recruitment offices are under military command, while in public the responsibility appears to be shifted to the civilian govt. So, the govt puts pressure on the military to become accountable 7/
Of course, the true underlying cause for the conflict is at once deeper and simpler. It is economics 101 - as resources become scarce and weapon stockpiles depleted due to delays in the aid from the allies, the competition over the remaining resources becomes tougher 8/
Similarly, the consequences of policy mistakes become more dire as they are fewer resources to reinforce the policy actions that didn’t go as planned. As a result, disagreements about the right policies are now much more pronounced and fought out 9/
The media writes that Zelensky believes a new commander could help turn the tide of the war, but finding a qualified replacement will be challenging. 10/
Options include intel chief Kyrylo Budanov, known for special ops, or current ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky, though both have drawbacks. 11/
Personally, I have been told that Budanov really does NOT want to job. I am not sure about Syrsky. 11/
The Washington Post is pretty critical about Zelensky decision to fire Zaluzhny. To me it signals lack of u estranging of how politics works in Ukraine and what is feasible. Ukraine is not the U.S. and the politics here is even messier. 12/
Nonetheless, this is what WP says:

Four days after telling Zaluzhny he'd be fired, Zelensky still hasn't selected a replacement, leaving Ukraine uncertain about the change.13/
Zelensky's move to oust the popular Zaluzhny appears impulsive and poorly planned. Delay suggests indecision or disarray in finding a successor. 14/
My comment: I view delays differently. It is typical in Ukraine to have a gap between a somewhat official announcement of firing a top official and its actual formal implementation 15/
The reasons are complex but basically have to do with the news cycle and disruption of coordination of the opposition to the policy choice. There is less mobilization and resistance if it is unclear whether an official it truly fired and when it actually happens 16/
This is a bit strange for the audience in developed economies and democracies but the moment you realize that institutions are still being developed in Ukraine, you can see how mobilization of the supporters of the person to be fired can derail institutions. 17/
Yesterday, I discussed with some prominent politicians and businessmen Zaluzhny recent public actions. 18/
The WP notices this too: Zaluzhny wrote an article calling for mobilizing more troops and upgrading tech, amounting to a rebuke of Zelensky's stance. 19/
This is one view - Zaluzhny is fighting Zelensky in public. Another one - shared by some of your allies - he is just trying to defend himself. But I am not sure what good this strategy would do him 20/
The WP also points out that Zelensky questioned Zaluzhny's ambitious battle plan for 2024, seeing it as unrealistic given limited personnel and supplies21/
In response, Zaluzhny proposed a futuristic high-tech overhaul to provide intelligence and reduce casualties, claiming it could be done in 5 months. 22/
I personally agree with Zaluzhny proposal - it seems reasonable to me. But it is not new and de facto it is underway. With both the govt and the military trying to develop and provide high tech platforms to the battlefield to save people. So this discussion is rhetorical 23/
The bottom line - Zaluzhny is likely to be replaced shortly, but it won’t have as much political effect as many media and experts write. It will be unpleasant for everyone but won’t have much of an effect on the battlefield either 24X

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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 26
I strongly dislike Samuel Charap's takes on Ukraine and question why @ForeignAffairs still publishes him. He discredited himself before, claiming Western weapons wouldn’t matter. But this time, he offers a strong, specific point - better than most I’ve seen or heard 1/ Image
His vision for the durable peace in Ukraine includes, of course, no NATO, but ceasefire, credible security guarantees for Ukraine, Russian accountability, support for Ukraine reconstruction, deterrence for another invasion, and integration of Ukraine into the EU 2/
All of these points are broadly reasonable, but the critical issue lies in the details, particularly in Samuel's argument for arming Ukraine defensively rather than offensively. 3/
Read 22 tweets
Dec 25
Nine years ago, I was teaching a course at the Kyiv School of Economics in Ukraine. I wasn’t yet the president of KSE, just returned to Ukraine, and couldn’t have imagined the challenges ahead of Ukraine and KSE 1/ Image
Today is Christmas, and I don’t want to dwell on the hardships in Ukraine. The war continues, and I am deeply grateful to our army and our allies, every one of you, for protecting our right to exist! 2/
I want the future Ukraine to be a happy, peaceful, strong, independent, free, successful, and prosperous country. I see Ukraine as part of Europe, part of Western civilization 3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 25
Some in Washington argue that Ukraine holds no strategic value for the US and should be abandoned - a sentiment I’ve heard directly from certain, not all, voices in the Trump camp. Their point - a Ukraine fall doesn't threaten Ohio

Here are the reasons why they are wrong 1/
Here is the gist of the argument: Ukraine serves as a buffer against Russian aggression, has strategic military and geographical significance, and the fall of Ukraine would have direct and broad implications for global security, food stability, and U.S. policy leverage 2/
But, first, people in Washington may want to avoid a mistake of assuming that they can determine the outcome of the war. In wars, realities on the ground matter more than policy decisions in foreign capitals, though support does matter as Afghanistan recently showed 3/
Read 14 tweets
Dec 23
Trump’s most recent comments on Ukraine criticize Kyiv and NATO, hinting at less U.S. support. He’s pushing to meet Putin, calling the war "horrible." I spoke with CNN's @jimsciutto about what Ukraine thinks about Trump's views and what it must do 1/
Trump said yesterday he’s eager to meet Putin, claiming the Russian leader wants talks "as soon as possible" to end what he calls a "horrible" war in Ukraine. While this is a push for diplomacy, it raises questions about concessions Trump might make to get Putin to the table 2/
Jim: How do you read Trump's comments on ending the war?

Me: Trump was sympathetic to Ukraine in Paris and called Putin loser before. But Kyiv feels uncertainty and worry. We want the war to stop, but no one expects a quick resolution or clear U.S. strategy yet 3/
Read 7 tweets
Dec 23
Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelensky administration, writes for WSJ how Ukraine helped depose Assad and advance the U.S. interests globally.

1/ Image
His point is indirect. Syria's fall demonstrates that weakening Russia in Ukraine can trigger collapse of Putin's influence in other regions, strengthening U.S. global security and power. 2/
Ukraine's resistance and US support weakened Russia's ability to aid Assad in Syria.
Russia lost estimated 700,000 soldiers, 9,162 tanks, etc They are so stretched so they have no resources to operate elsewhere. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 22
The Economist highlights that Ukraine’s economy has outperformed Russia’s during the war - despite Moscow’s attempts to spin the narrative. Grateful to contribute through the Economist to countering Russian propaganda with facts and informed perspectives.

Other points which Economist convey: 1/Image
Even being smaller than in 2021, Ukraine economy is outperforming Russia with stable currency, low interest rates, and GDP growth of 4% in 2024. 2/
Businesses have adapted to the war, moved operations west, set up abroad, and shift to new industries, like green energy and AI. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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