Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Feb 3, 2024 26 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The drama continues

Ukraine has informed the White House that President Zelensky plans to fire top commander Zaluzhny. The White House did not object, seeing it as Ukraine's sovereign choice.

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Zelensky and Zaluzhny have clashed over strategy, including Zaluzhny's call for mobilizing 500,000 more troops which Zelensky opposes 2/
Zaluzhny argues more troops are needed to counter Russia's superiority, while Zelensky cites lack of funds and political unpopularity. 3/
This is what the Washington Post and Ukrainian media write.

However, there is at least two other underlying reasons for a conflict. First, the government believes that the army doesn’t use people it recruits efficiently there are old school commanders and practices 4/
There is criticism about lack of strategy and that the army simply tries to throw bodies at the Russians. While I don’t believe it to be completely true, I agree that the Ukrainian military still has a minority but Soviet style officers and practices. Those have to go 5/
Indirectly, this criticism is acknowledge by Zaluzhny who has been recently public about the new strategy for the army and the need for production and deployment of drones rather than people 6/
The second line of the conflict is about responsibility for mobilization. Legally the recruitment offices are under military command, while in public the responsibility appears to be shifted to the civilian govt. So, the govt puts pressure on the military to become accountable 7/
Of course, the true underlying cause for the conflict is at once deeper and simpler. It is economics 101 - as resources become scarce and weapon stockpiles depleted due to delays in the aid from the allies, the competition over the remaining resources becomes tougher 8/
Similarly, the consequences of policy mistakes become more dire as they are fewer resources to reinforce the policy actions that didn’t go as planned. As a result, disagreements about the right policies are now much more pronounced and fought out 9/
The media writes that Zelensky believes a new commander could help turn the tide of the war, but finding a qualified replacement will be challenging. 10/
Options include intel chief Kyrylo Budanov, known for special ops, or current ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky, though both have drawbacks. 11/
Personally, I have been told that Budanov really does NOT want to job. I am not sure about Syrsky. 11/
The Washington Post is pretty critical about Zelensky decision to fire Zaluzhny. To me it signals lack of u estranging of how politics works in Ukraine and what is feasible. Ukraine is not the U.S. and the politics here is even messier. 12/
Nonetheless, this is what WP says:

Four days after telling Zaluzhny he'd be fired, Zelensky still hasn't selected a replacement, leaving Ukraine uncertain about the change.13/
Zelensky's move to oust the popular Zaluzhny appears impulsive and poorly planned. Delay suggests indecision or disarray in finding a successor. 14/
My comment: I view delays differently. It is typical in Ukraine to have a gap between a somewhat official announcement of firing a top official and its actual formal implementation 15/
The reasons are complex but basically have to do with the news cycle and disruption of coordination of the opposition to the policy choice. There is less mobilization and resistance if it is unclear whether an official it truly fired and when it actually happens 16/
This is a bit strange for the audience in developed economies and democracies but the moment you realize that institutions are still being developed in Ukraine, you can see how mobilization of the supporters of the person to be fired can derail institutions. 17/
Yesterday, I discussed with some prominent politicians and businessmen Zaluzhny recent public actions. 18/
The WP notices this too: Zaluzhny wrote an article calling for mobilizing more troops and upgrading tech, amounting to a rebuke of Zelensky's stance. 19/
This is one view - Zaluzhny is fighting Zelensky in public. Another one - shared by some of your allies - he is just trying to defend himself. But I am not sure what good this strategy would do him 20/
The WP also points out that Zelensky questioned Zaluzhny's ambitious battle plan for 2024, seeing it as unrealistic given limited personnel and supplies21/
In response, Zaluzhny proposed a futuristic high-tech overhaul to provide intelligence and reduce casualties, claiming it could be done in 5 months. 22/
I personally agree with Zaluzhny proposal - it seems reasonable to me. But it is not new and de facto it is underway. With both the govt and the military trying to develop and provide high tech platforms to the battlefield to save people. So this discussion is rhetorical 23/
The bottom line - Zaluzhny is likely to be replaced shortly, but it won’t have as much political effect as many media and experts write. It will be unpleasant for everyone but won’t have much of an effect on the battlefield either 24X

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 6
Anne Applebaum in The Atlantic: Trump says he wants peace. But every key decision his administration makes helps Putin keep fighting.

Weapons blocked. Sanctions stalled. Disinfo unchallenged.

She explains how the U.S. is realigning - toward Moscow.

1/ Image
The most urgent case: Patriot missiles. These interceptors protect Kyiv from ballistic missiles.

They’re already funded and waiting in Poland. Trump blocked the delivery in June — days after promising Zelensky he’d “make some available.” 2/
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That means Ukrainian defeat. 3/
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Military spending now makes up 6% of Russia’s GDP, the highest level since the Soviet period.

That compares to ~3% in the U.S. and ~2% in Germany. The central bank raised interest rates to 21%, slowing investment across non-military sectors. 2/
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I survived the attack on Kyiv. Ukraine will stand, but people will die.

Patriot missiles shipment halt, which were in Poland, adds to aggravation. Trump and Putin made no progress is also upsetting. It's a difficult time.

I gave interview to CNN. 1/
Q: What do you make of recent diplomacy?

A: The timing of Russian attacks is conspicuous, a finger to everyone. Trump is frustrated.

Ukrainians have sleepless nights. They're saying: We'd be forced to surrender. Do we have to go into these Gulag camps that russians set up? 2/
Q: Do you believe that WH is genuine or stalling?

A: Some in WH have a position that Ukraine has to be supported. Others believe that we will end the war sooner if we stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.

It's a mistaken position. People underestimate what Putin will do. 3/
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The media fixated on 3 holes at Fordow, missing the real destruction buried below. You’ll need a big shovel to see what really happened under that mountain. 1/
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He said, get everyone off that base except those firing the Patriots – I don’t want a single U.S. casualty. 2/
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Russian Lavrov is fake news, Trump is not pulling away from Europe, and deserves all praise for achieving 5% in NATO. 1/
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Russia is the first enormous geopolitical challenge for NATO. 2/
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Russia is only the size of the economy of Texas. $2T, and the whole of NATO is $50T. 3/
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Jul 5
Reuters: Dutch and German intelligence confirm Russia's widespread use of banned chemical weapons in Ukraine, including drones dropping choking agents on soldiers.

Russia is ramping up its chemical weapons program with more production and R&D.

1/ Image
Russia is using chloropicrin, a banned choking agent, in improvised munitions like light bulbs and bottles dropped from drones. The use of chemical weapons is becoming widespread, with Ukraine reporting over 9,000 instances.
2/
At least three Ukrainians have died from chemical weapons, with over 2,500 injured.

The Netherlands call for stronger sanctions and Russia's exclusion from international bodies.

The OPCW has not yet investigated, citing insufficient evidence.

3X
Read 4 tweets

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