high_marsed Profile picture
Feb 3 11 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/ I have found that Russia has removed barrels and cannibalized almost all of their different types of stored self propelled guns. In this thread I will show satelite images of systems that have been cannibalized or with removed barrels🧵
2/ Starting with the 2S7, you can see 26 vehicles withoout barrels at the 94th in satelite images from June 2023. Unfortunately the image we have from Jan 2024 has lower resolution so I dont know how many have been removed since. 20.05.2023 (55.016229,73.400891)
3/ Regarding the 2S19 I have only found them at the 80th in pre-war images and they hadn't moved until recently. Counting the shadows of the barrels and comparing them with the number of hulls reveals, that roughly ~20 barrels have been removed.
14.08.2021 (56.760280,61.192497)
24.01.2024 (56.760280,61.192497)
4/ Additionally some 2S19 have appeared at the 120th, which could have been taken from garages or brought from the front since Brjansk is not that far from Ukraine. The Masta-S I marked seem to be used for spare parts and a few dont have a barrel:
29.04.2023 (53.226382, 34.397031)
29.04.2023 (53.227042, 34.398831)
5/ The 2S5 systems have also seen a lot of cannibalization. You can see that in 2021 they had 61 2S5 at this spot at the 7020th of which 25 were removed and 18 of the remaining vehicles had their barrel removed.
05.09.2021 (43.837516,131.993236)
11.05.2023 (43.837516,131.993236)
6/ Here are 19 2S5 at the 94th without barrels. Getting an accurate number for this base is unfortunately not that easy. I previously stated that 141 barrels were removed but after staring at Google Earth for a while I dont really know which of them dont have a barrel anymore. 20.05.2023 (55.014350,73.394236)
7/ I cant see the barrel on most of these vehicles, but for some of them there is a slight shadow and a white spot which could be the cap at the front of the barrel. To be save I wil go with at least 40 barrels removed.

20.05.2023 (55.014435,73.395626)
20.05.2023 (55.014219,73.397901)
20.05.2023 (55.018675,73.398641)
8/ As you can see in these image the 2S9 hasnt been spared. You can see that 2 are missing their whole turret and others seem to be missing their gun and stored with open hatches.
2S9_120th 29.04.2023 (53.224046,34.394058)
2S9_7020th 11.05.2023 (43.838488,131.997254)
9/ The 2S1 seems to be the only SPG that still has large stocks and hasnt been cannibalized in a significant way, whereas 2S4 and 2S3 have been removed in larger numbers and a few have also been cannibalized.
10/ Unfortunately this analysis is based on older images since more recent footage does not have the necessary resolution. I think it is reasonable to assume that a fraction of the remaining SPG stocks can be considered unusable.
11/ Unfortunately I dont know the true extent of this, especially regarding towed artillery, but I think that 2S7 and 2S5 are most affected by this. We might see that most of the rmaining systems are already cannibalized at least for the 2S7s at the 94th.

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More from @HighMarsed

Feb 3
1/ @CoverCabal and I have counted and identified both SPGs and towed artillery at russian storage bases and you can find our numbers in this thread or on Youtube. I have also added some interesting spots and answered some common questions below.
2/ First of all here are the numbers. Two tables are showing the decline in absolute numbers of SPGs and TA at the most important bases from 2021 to now and I have also attached a table showing the decline by system.

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3/ Here is a comparison of our numbers with The Military Balance 2022. This is the first time that I have encoutered higher storage numbers found on satelite images compared to the numbers in TMB. Image
Read 14 tweets
Feb 1
1/ I attempted counting rocket artillery systems at russian storage bases on satelite images from 2021, which did not turn out great. I only found 310 BM-21 and 319 BM-27 although according to MB2022 ~2500 BM-21 and 700 BM-27 should be in storage. Image
2/ The main problem is telling them apart from regular trucks. Below you can see a spot at the 109th with some BM-21 marked in orange which have the rocket pod clearly visible. The rest of the trucks could also be BM-21 with the pod stored seperately. 7/22/2021 (52.376639,104.127771)
3/ Interestingly all of the vehicles that had a rocket pod were removed. 05/08/2021 (52.376639,104.127771)
Read 9 tweets
Jan 30
1/ Here is our AFV identification for the 3018th, 372nd, 243rd, 216th and 4 more smaller bases, as usually done together with @Jonpy99. I have attached some satelite images including coordinates and dates of interesting spots in this thread. Image
2/ The 3018th was not that easy to count, since there were a lot of covered vehicles, which we counted as MT-LBs, but it is not impossible that they are BMPs. Almost all of them have been removed since the war started.
21.09.2021 (56.845134, 62.735796)
29.03.2023
3/ We were also not 100% sure how to identify these vehicles at the same base. They looke like MT-LBs with a turret but since the vehicles are slightly longer than the BMPs (marked in blue) they might be MT-LBu. 21.09.2021 (56.845520,62.730045)
Read 5 tweets
Dec 29, 2023
1/ Russia has removed 1081 BMPs from storage bases since 2021 and at least 765 of the remaining 3730 vehicles are visibly broken beyond repair (satelite imagery), but the real number is likely higher which I explain in this thread. All individual assesments are linked below⬇️ Image
2/ I have added some ground footage of the 111th and 2456th below and I think it is save to say that likely many more of the remaining BMPs will never see combat, especially from the 769th, 111th and 2456th.


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3/ It is also important to note that some of the bases have garages where hundreds more could be or could have been stored. All my assesments of the individual bases are linked below including satelite imagery and explanations of changes I made compared to my last count.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 15, 2023
1/ BMP assessment of the 111th storage base near Khal'gaso for October 2023, including satelite imagery and ground footage. Since 2021 the number of BMPs has dropped from 937 to 878 with at least 200 broken beyond repair, but judging by ground footage this number may exceed 700. Image
2/ Spot 1: Here you can see an aerial view of the first spot and satelite imagery from 10/2022, but also two images from the ground from the same spot before 2021. Clearly many of the BMPs can never be brought back into service.


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3/ Spot 1: Comparing satelite imagery (Oct 2023 left) from this spot which holds 705 BMPs to imagery from 2021 (right) no changes can be observed. For consistency I only counted the ones visiibly broken on the satelite imagery, but the real number is definetly higher (maybe all).
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Read 4 tweets
Dec 15, 2023
1/ Here is my BMP assessment for the 769th storage base in Ulan-Ude for September 2023. There are 586 BMPs left down from 897 in 2021 and 327 (56%) of the remaining vehicles look like they are broken beyond repair. I have included pictures of the individual spots in this thread. Image
2/ Spot 1: At least 58 of the 84 BMPs at this spot seem to be missing the turret or other parts of the vehicle. Image
3/ Spot 2: This is the only spot where many of the BMPs seem to be repairable (195 out of 295). In my opinion the vehicles in the middle are BMP-2, because of the larger turret. Image
Read 5 tweets

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