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Tracking what is left of the soviet legacy at russian storage bases.
Ryan Opel Profile picture Stanislav Profile picture 6 subscribed
Sep 19 9 tweets 4 min read
1/ Since the start of the invasion Russia has removed at least 8300 units of towed artillery and mortars from their storage bases. I will provide some additional information to the count we published recently. Image 2/ First of all I would like to explain the new ID system. I tried to make more use of measuring the guns to put them into categories. I would like to thank @bentanmy , for looking into which systems might be in storage based on guns removed for exhibits.
Aug 18 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ Here is our updated count of self propelled guns at Russian storage sites, with data points for 2022, 2023 and 2024. With @CovertCabal ⬇️
Image 2/ As usual here is the data. Russia has so far removed roughly 1700 SPGs from storage and 60% of of their stocks remain at the bases in various conditions. Image
Jul 31 12 tweets 4 min read
1/ Someone should update the "List of equipment of the Russian ground forces" on Wikipedia with Military Balance 2024 numbers. ⬇️
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e…
Image 2/ Many bad assesments of Russian equipment are based on numbers from , which in turn seems to be at least partially relying on the Wikipedia article I mentioned above:globalfirepower.com
Jul 30 20 tweets 9 min read
1/ This thread aims to provide some open-source and reproducible facts about Russian pre-war tank storage. ⬇️ Image 2/ The main reason I am writing this thread is that the only other source (except our previous counts) is The Military Balance 2022 (10200 tanks: 7000 T-72, 3000 T-80 and 200 T-90), which they have later corrected in TMB2023 and TMB2024.
Jul 10 25 tweets 8 min read
1/ If you are interested in how the Russian tank fleet might look over the coming years here are some of my predictions for what will likely happen, if the war continues at the same intensity. ⬇️ Image 2/ First of all here are the numbers of tanks of each type removed from storage, which will be relevant for this thread. Keep in mind that there are a lot of uncertainties with these numbers and this is only the storage visible on satelite images. Image
Jul 6 14 tweets 5 min read
1/ Here is how many tanks are left at Russian storage bases in mid 2024, as usual done together with @CovertCabal. We have made some changes to our methodology which I will explain in this thread together with some further analysis.⬇️
2/ First of all here are the numbers by type and base. As you can see Russia has removed about 2500 tanks from visible storage, but the removal rate has declined from 115 tanks per month in the first 16 months to roughly 60 tanks per month over the last year.
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Jul 1 13 tweets 4 min read
1/ We recently published our numbers for remaining T-80B/BV tanks in russian storage. In this thread I will try to estimate the number of active tanks of this type to get a better understanding of how long we can expect to see them on the battlefield.⬇️ https://ukr.warspotting.net/view/24077/137572/ 2/ First of all here are the numbers in a table and you can also find them in the video linked below.

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Jun 25 8 tweets 3 min read
1/ Google Earth has recently updated satelite imagery for the 109th storage base in Batareynaya. This base shows an interesting pattern regarding the removal of towed artillery, which I will try to explain in this thread.⬇️ 109th Batareynaya: 24.05.2024 (52.382803,104.156780) 2/ The base had multiple image updates since 2022 and I made a graph showing the decline in stored towed artillery. Since the start of the invasion towed artillery pieces were removed at a rate of ~17.5 units per month, but there havent been any changes since May 2023. Image
Jun 1 12 tweets 4 min read
1/ Russia has lost at least 379 multiple rocket launchers since the start of the invasion according to Oryx. In this thread I will show how many they might have left in storage, counted from satelite images together with @Jonpy99 .⬇️ (BM-21 No. 3 Destroyed non Oryx: https://i.postimg.cc/x16gjzR1/442.png) 2/ As usual here is an overview of data for two of the most numerous systems in Russian service (BM-21 Grad and BM-27 Uragan).
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May 23 10 tweets 4 min read
1/ I have recently been investigating why the share of T-72 losses seems to have decreased over the course of the war. The reason for this might be, that there are very few remaining T-72B (and modifications) left in storage. Further explanantion in this thread⬇️ (T-72B  Obr.1989 Nr.2 damaged and captured) https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html 2/ Below you can see a chart showing the share T-72s among the tank losses recorded by Oryx. I got the data from raptorama7 on the @projectowlosint Discord. Although the decline has slowed over time a general decrease can be observed. Image
May 8 13 tweets 5 min read
1/ Russia has severely depleted one of their largest towed artillery storage bases. In updated images it is visible that they have removed about 60% of the stored guns and half of the remaining guns might be unusable. Data and IDs below.⬇️ Lesnoi Gorodok: 26.03.2024 51.743158,113.023049 (Google Earth, Airbus) 2/ The updated Google Earth image is very clear, which helps a lot with identifying the guns. The IDs for 2024 are probably very accurate, but I am still not totally confident in my identififcations in the pre war footage. Image
May 7 11 tweets 5 min read
1/ Russia used the D-30 in low numbers before the start of the invasion, with 170 active units. Since then this towed artillery piece has become much more common and they have lost at least 74 (visually confirmed). Here is how many remain in storage. ⬇️ https://ukr.warspotting.net/view/19021/92103/ 2/ As usual here is an overview of the D-30s stored at the storage bases counted from satelite images. As you can see the images used to count the number of remaining units are often quite old so the real number is likely much lower. Image
Apr 18 12 tweets 5 min read
1/ At the start of the invasion russian storage bases had 4327 SPGs. Since then at least 1554 have been removed and the composition of stored systems has changed. In this thread I will present some analysis based on the counted storage numbers and make predictions.⬇️ Image 2/ Below you can see a large table showing the numbers for each base including the dates of the satelite images that were used to do the count. All threads for the individual types are linked at the end. Keep in mind that some images are old and the bases might have changed. Image
Apr 17 10 tweets 6 min read
1/ Russia has lost at least 46 120mm 2S9 Nona-S according to warspotting, which represents 16% of the 280 units in active service when the invasion started. In this thread I will show how many 2S9 might be left in storage. ⬇️ https://ukr.warspotting.net/view/20126/99695/ 2/ First of all here is an overview of the numbers by base including the dates of the satelite images I used to make this count. We made some errors regarding this type which is why the numbers are different form the last count although there is no new footage. Image
Apr 8 13 tweets 8 min read
1/ Russia has lost at least 23 152mm Giatsint-B throughout the invasion of Ukraine, although they didnt actively use this type before the war started according to The Military Balance 2022. All of the lost units came from storage and this thread shows how many might be left.⬇️ https://ukr.warspotting.net/view/11673/122469/ 2/ First of all here is an overview of the numbers. This system seems to have one of the highest removal rates of all towed artillery, considering that by now likely more than 80% of their pre-war stocks have been removed. Image
Apr 6 14 tweets 6 min read
1/ Russia has lost at least 55 (visually confirmed) of their 100 pre-war active 152mm 2S5 Giatsint-S self propelled guns, with 10 more units being damaged. In this thread I will show how many 2S5 they had in storage and how many might be left⬇️ https://ukr.warspotting.net/view/21619/110692/ 2/ Since there is a higher number of vehicles and bases here is an overview of the numbers. Russia has at least removed 288 (~48%) and some of the remaining 2S5 have had their gun removed. Image
Apr 2 8 tweets 3 min read
1/ Ukraine has been using the 130mm M-46 to defend against the russian invasion, but Russia seems to have only used this system rarely so far and not even a single loss is visually confirmed, although they have more than 600 in storage, which I will show in this thread ⬇️ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/130_mm_towed_field_gun_M1954_(M-46)#/media/File:M-46_Lutsk.jpg 2/ As with the 2S4 finding the M-46 is easy since they are all stored at one base near Shchuchye which I usually refer to as Planovyi. This base has three spots with M-46 towed artillery holding 676 guns in 2020.

Planovyi: 10.08.2020 55.283172,62.725511 (Google Earth, Maxar Technologies)
Planovyi: 10.08.2020 55.284436,62.730208 (Google Earth, Maxar Technologies)
Planovyi: 10.08.2020 55.283172,62.725511 (Google Earth, Maxar Technologies)
Apr 1 8 tweets 3 min read
1/ Russia has already lost 42 240mm 2S4 Tyulpan that are visually confirmed, which is more than their pre-war active fleet of 40 units according to The Military Balance 2022. They have been reactivating many from storage and I have analyzed how many might be left in this thread⬇️ https://ukr.warspotting.net/view/20724/117392/ 2/ Finding the russian stock of 2S4 is not hard, since they are all stored at the 94th arsenal in Omsk. The numbers of 2S4 at this first spot have dropped from 193 in 2021 to roughly 120 in January of 2024, with few units being cannibalized.
94th: 02.05.2021 55.014560,73.396889 (Google Earth, Maxar Technologies)
94th: 10.01.2024 55.014560,73.396889 (Skywatch, Airbus Pleiades)
Mar 25 7 tweets 3 min read
1/ Since Russia started the invasion in 2022 they have lost at least 188 2S19 Msta-S and 38 2S33 Msta-SM (Oryx). This is one of the most capable systems in the russian arsenal, so how many do they have in storage to replace their losses?⬇️ https://ukr.warspotting.net/view/10994/31229/ 2/ The only storage base that had some visible storage of 2S19 before the war started is the 80th arsenal. You can see all 111 2S19 at that base in the image from 2021 below and until Feb 2023 none of them had been removed.
80th: 14.08.2021 56.760206,61.192681 (Google Earth, Maxar Technologies)
80th: 08.02.2023 56.760206,61.192681 (SkyWatch, Airbus Pleiades Neo)
Mar 24 17 tweets 10 min read
1/ Russia has lost at least 118 122mm 2S1 Gvozdika SPGs (Oryx) of their 150 active pre war units. At the same time they have reactivated a minimum of 337 from storage. Here is how many they might have left ⬇️ https://ukr.warspotting.net/view/11439/51705/ 2/ I have added a lot of satelite images from almost all spots where the 2S1 can be found in this thread. Here is an overview of the numbers including the dates of the imagery I used. Image
Mar 7 11 tweets 5 min read
1/ Unfortunately this is not true! David presents false information here and I will prove this with some satelite footage from January in this thread, as he should have done:

Airbus Pleaides 10.01.2024 (55.021415,73.384938) 2/ First of all the "new images" David is refering to are from May 2023, posted by @hizzo_jay and then stolen without credit by @UKikaski. The footage shows a small part of the 94th Arsenal in Omsk (55.021415,73.384938).