Thread by @ChrisO_wiki

1/ A blanket of silence has descended in the Russian media around the fate of the corvette Ivanovets, sunk by Ukrainian sea drones on 1 February 2024. 32 members of the crew are unofficially reported to have survived the ship's sinking. ⬇️

2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel has published a chronology and location of the attack which matches very well with an impressive OSINT analysis derived from star positions published by @Dmojavensis (see below).

https://twitter.com/Dmojavensis/status/1753867125469626553

3/ According to the channel: "The 56-meter-long vessel was caught in a trap 9 km from the entrance to Lake Donuzlav, near the village of Okunivka, Black Sea region." [Map below is by @Dmojavensis]

4/ "The first attack by an unmanned boat on the ship occurred at 03.42, the second at 03.44 and the third control attack occurred at 03.47. According to internal data, at 04.00 the crew stopped fighting for the survivability of the vessel and began evacuation.

5/ "And at 04.46 the ship sank. According to official data, the crew of 32 people was evacuated, one of the seriously injured members was hospitalised. At the same time, the full-time crew number is 39 people."

6/ The official Russian state media has been completely silent about the attack, as 'We can explain' notes. However, Russian bloggers have been critical of the Russian military for taking what they regard as a wasteful approach towards the use of naval assets in the Black Sea.

7/ Two Majors notes the loss of the Ivanovets and corroborates VChK-OGPU's report: "the sailors bravely fought with many enemy [Unmanned Surface Vessels] and continued to fight for the survivability of the boat even after one of the drones was blown up close to the side."

8/ Like several other bloggers, Rybar thinks the Ivanovets shouldn't have been there. It blames "the human factor, when the thinking of certain responsible persons remained exactly at the same level as before the [Special Military Operation].

9/ "And if this continues over and over again after all similar episodes, then is it worth asking a question about the conclusions drawn?"

10/ Military Informant suggests that the huge explosion seen in the Ukrainian video of the attack was caused by the detonation of at least one of the ship's P-270 Moskit anti-ship missiles (which is very likely correct). He questions the thinking behind the ship's deployment.

11/ "A big question also arises about the feasibility of having relatively small boats of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the current situation with a full set of anti-ship weapons on board, …

12/ "… taking into account the colossal and more than once demonstrated threat of USVs, as well as the lack of actual targets for such weapons."

13/ The pro-Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin queries the apparent lack of defences or detection of the USVs: "How were Ukrainian naval drones able to break into Donuzlav, given that the width of the passage into the lake is less than 400 meters?"

14/ "Or was the boat attacked in the outer roadstead [note – this is what actually happened]? But then how did he get ambushed by the USVs? Why weren't they discovered?

15/ "I will not say that the best means of detecting USVs and countering such attacks is air patrolling. It sets my teeth on edge! But after two years of war, neither patrol aircraft nor radar patrol balloons appeared..."

16/ The reason for the official Russian media's silence is not hard to guess, as @ian_matveev comments: "To deny or not notice the explosion of the Novocherkassk would be completely absurd, but an attack somewhere at sea, …

17/ "… for which there is only night video from the enemy, can be ignored. Moreover, most of the crew of the “Ivanovets” were apparently saved, [so] it is easier to hush up the incident." /end

Sources:
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🔹 t.me/vchkogpu/45565
t.me/mozhemobyasnit…
t.me/dva_majors/339…
t.me/rybar/56616
t.me/milinfolive/11…
t.me/ramzayiegokoma…