arctotherium Profile picture
Feb 5, 2024 52 tweets 28 min read Read on X
Book thread on @peterbrimelow's Alien Nation. This book was published in 1995, but unfortunately it is still relevant almost 30 years later. If anything, it was too optimistic. Image
It is not just illegal immigration that is out of control; legal immigration is too. Immigration is in effect an imitation civil right, extended indefinitely to a group of foreigners selected arbitrarily and without regard to American interests. Image
Many other issues (crime, healthcare, education) have an unspoken immigration dimension.

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America's ethnic core has always been white. Libertarians, like Virginia Postrel (who is still writing) have a tendency to flip out about this fact. The racial reshaping of the country post-1965 is unprecedented, not a natural continuation of what made pre-65 America great.
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A very common position in the immigration debate is "my grandparents were Ellis Islanders, they would've been kept out if there were restrictions, thus Open Borders." But the Ellis Islanders differed in many ways from the current wave.
First, European immigrants are now shut out by Third Worlders. Second, Ellis Islanders were white. Third, America was aggressively assimilative rather than multicultural. Fourth, there was no welfare state and much return migration. Fifth, there was a 40-year pause.
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American immigration is historically high, surpassing even the Ellis Island wave once low native fertility is accounted for, and unlike pre-65, it is constant rather than intermittent and responsive to economic conditions thanks to the welfare state.
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Operation Wetback was phenomenally successful. Turns out, it's easy to stop illegal immigration is you actually try. It would be much easier today. Image
If there were no immigration at all to the US post-1790, the US population would still be ~49% of what it was in 1990. Image
Over 90% of US immigration is from the 3rd world, and the stock is functionally limitless. Not a self-solving problem. Image
Post-65 immigration is less skilled then prior waves, and this lack of skill is persistent. American immigration policy permanently degrades the quality of its workforce. Image
Population projections from 1990 seem incredibly optimistic today. ~53% white by 2050? We're at 59% in 2020 (compared to projected 64%), and that's including MENA as white.
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The creators of Hart-Celler did not intend it to revolutionize the country and indeed promised it wouldn't. They were wrong. Image
Why care about race?
1) Affirmative Action
2) Politics. The US was 80-90% white until 1965, and politically ~100% white. The only big racial faultline was white-black and confined to the South.
3) QOL. Whites, empirically, dislike living around nonwhites, and vice-versa.

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The Free Market solution: wait for CA to become unlivable (compared to India/Mexico) so people will leave. But this is not a free market problem. Image
The government has chosen to dissolve the people and elect a new one. Image
American discourse often treats the browning of America as a natural phenomenon like the tides, rather than the product of govt action in the form of immigration policy.
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The debate around Hart-Celler bore no resemblance to its effects. We were promised no increase in numbers OR change in ethnic composition, eg only 5000 Asian immigrants. Every charge laid by opponents of the bill came true.


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How the post-65 immigration system works: global gap, national quotas, no favoritism towards Europe (in fact, Euros are crowded out), family migration over skills (leading to chain migration and domination by a handful of countries). No restrictions on 'refugees.'

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Plus, there's millions of illegals and a diversity lottery, which doesn't even pretend to follow any sort of pro-America logic. Literally 'let's crowd in every ethnic group in the world for a thunderdome'. Image
America's immigration system is anarcho-tyrannical. Difficult and tortuously bureaucratic for those who obey the law, which is not enforced against those who don't. Image
The insanity of post-65 immigration policy leads to inflexibility. The US can't make exceptions (such as for post-Soviet Eastern Europeans) because the rules are so bad. Image
47% of foreign born USians don't even speak English well. Image
Immigration has been wildly unpopular among Americans since 1965, yet is still perpetually increased. There is not even a credible fig leaf of democratic legitimacy for the country's racial transformation.
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Hart-Celler was passed as a form of ethnic revenge.

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Occasionally, you see pro-immigration Jews invoke the Holocaust as a justification for Open Borders. But this is unreasonable; there is no limit to the number of potential atrocities that could have been averted if their victims were in the US instead. Image
Just as there are nativists, there are alienists, who despise Americans and see immigration as a tool to punish us. Many immigrationists are shockingly open about this.

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Immigrationists rarely explain why the US must be transformed via mass immigration. When they do answer, they are often absurdly anti-American, such as Earl Raab, who sees swamping white Americans as necessary to stop Nazism.


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Diverse societies are far more bigoted and are at much higher risk of ethnic conflict, because ethnicity is a natural way of organizing politically. Only homogenous societies can be liberal. A man who wanted to minimize 'racism' would want to Keep America White.

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This is an excellent prediction in light of the rapid Republicanization of American whites in the 21st century. Image
While ethnic transfer between white ethnic groups was common in the Northeast in the 19th/early 20th century, it never produced anything like white flight, unlike black and later Hispanic/Asian influxes. Image
Multiracial societies have an awful track record and were typically based around a dominant ethnic group.

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Quite blackpilling. In the 90s, every European country was committed to stopping further nonwhite immigration. Image
Many immigrationists have browbeaten restrictionists into accepting the "immigration is Good For The Economy" claim. But it isn't true.

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Free trade and open borders are often conflated, but they do not have to go together. In fact, free trade substitutes for immigration; instead of importing Mexicans to pick strawberries in California, import strawberries from Mexico. Victorian Britain is the preeminent example. Image
Regardless, Actually Existing Immigration is almost totally uncoupled from economic needs, instead being driven by the welfare state and family reunification.


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More on unskilled immigration:
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Immigrants disproportionately use welfare, and are no longer deported as public charges. 80%+ of illegals have fraudulent SSNs, and they can use anchor babies to collect more benefits. Refugees are particularly bad, since they can legally collect benefits immediately.


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As such, immigrants are a fiscal net negative. We pay for them to take over our country. Immigration is also not a viable way to stop population aging.


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Even under standard (optimistic) economic assumptions, which abstract away genetics/politics/culture/redistribution, the economic benefits of immigration on the natives are miniscule - around 0.3% of GDP!
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The direct economic effects of immigration on the natives are small - in both directions. This is often used by immigrationists, since the effect on wages is small, but it goes both ways. So the question then becomes: are the non-economic effects of immigration good for us?


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Since the direct effects are so small, the political/cultural/genetic effects can easily outweigh them. Immigration undermines the institutions needed to keep market economies working.

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One day, the myth of Hispanic family values and Natural Conservativism will die. One day. Image
Immigrants bring contagious diseases long since vanquished from the First World back into America.
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Environmentalism and immigrationism are at odds. Keep this in mind next time you see leftists go into hysterics about the "climate emergency."


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Immigration very often threatens a country's political balance. This has happened many times in both world and American history. The Mexican govt deliberately uses Mexican immigrants as a 5th column to subvert the United States.


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Immigration has effectively obliterated what's left of American democratic legitimacy. Image
It's difficult to talk about immigration in America because we don't have good vocabulary for distinguishing state and nation.


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Nonwhites have legal preferences in the US, so mass immigration is turning whites and a discriminated against minority in our country. USG deliberately tries to stop nonwhites from assimilating.
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America is effectively a colony of the world - run for the benefit of everyone but Americans.

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Border control is not cruel, and there would far fewer emotional scenes at the border if illegals were deterred, which could be done easily.

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Nonwhite countries tend to be VERY strict about immigration; there is no reciprocality. They can come here, we can't go there.


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More from @arctotherium42

Jul 25
This is generically true - across almost all rich countries, women are 2-2.5x as likely to work for the state as men. Image
Removing teachers (and soldiers, for fairness) lowers the gap, but it's still a big difference. Image
You can get slightly different numbers depending on what source you use and what exactly you count as public, but they all tell the same substantive story. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 19
New blog post (link below). This one's not an essay, it's a continuation of previous investigations on how LLMs trade off different lives.

In February 2025, the Center for AI Safety published "Utility Engineering: Analyzing and Controlling Emergent Value Systems in AIs" in which they showed, among many other things, that GPT-4o values Nigerians about 20x more highly than Americans (please read the original paper to understand their approach). I updated their framework with different categories and newer models in October 2025, and discovered that with the exception of Grok 4 (Fast), all models placed far more value on the lives of "left-coded" groups (nonwhites, non-men, LGBTQ, immigrants, leftists, Third Worlders) over "right-coded" groups (whites, men, non-queers, ICE agents, rightists, First Worlders). For example, Sonnet 4.5 saw the lives of South Asians as about 18 times as valuable as the lives of whites.

However, it's been several generations of model since October 2025, so I decided to try again with today's models: Claude Fable 5, Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, Grok 4.5, and Kimi K3. As it turns out, all of them are MUCH more egalitarian than their counterparts (except Grok 4.5, since Grok 4 was already egalitarian) from a year ago.

Finding 1: Sonnet 5 was the only model even close to last year's models, valuing nonwhites roughly four times higher than whites.

Finding 2: GPT-5.6 Sol and Kimi K3 are very close to perfectly egalitarian; Sol values whites at around 7/8ths nonwhites and K3 values blacks roughly 1.3 times as much as whites; these are tiny ratios by the standards of last year.

Finding 3: Claude Fable is pretty much perfectly egalitarian. This is very, very different from last year's Claude models. Grok 4.5 has retained the egalitarianism of previous generations of Grok despite the giant increase in capabilities and different team.

Every model I tested would have been the most egalitarian model (aside from Grok 4) last year. All models have come to resemble Grok in their exchange rates.Image
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Read 12 tweets
Jul 19
This is wrong. Kirk was not a particularly hated figure before he was killed; he was seen by Redditor-types as a goofy meme figure of mockery (see below, from 2023). He was only demonized by lefties *after* he was murdered, to retroactively justify the assassination. Image
Kirk was not a case of the lib hate machine whipping up hatred against someone until someone took a shot at him, it was a case of the lib hate machine ramping up after he was murdered.
This is one of the reasons why his murder was so shocking; I sort of expected people taking shots at Trump or Stephen Miller or even Elon Musk, who libs collectively saw as Hitler II, but not Kirk, who they mostly saw as a lolcow.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 13
Thread with excerpts from "Foundations, their power and influence" (1958), by the former chairman of the Reece Committee, a Congressional committee to investigate the conduct of tax-exempt foundations. Image
The administrators of the great foundations formed an interlocking cartel wielding (illegally) immense political and cultural influence using other people's money, as the foundations are tax exempt. Image
Foundations are tax-exempt because they are supposed to be run for public benefit. Image
Read 32 tweets
Jul 11
Thread with excerpts from "The French Intifada: The Long War Between France and its Arabs" (2014). This book, by a leftist (participant in communes) author, portrays race riots by Arab immigrants to France as simply one more episode in a centuries-long war between the two. Image
Both the French Left and Right framed the 2005 riots as part of the long French tradition of revolt. But they were wrong; the protestors were mostly Arabs rioting against France itself, not against "the bosses" or "the state." Image
The rioters (remember, Arab immigrants and their descendants) see themselves as soldiers in a long war against France, Europe, and even civilization itself. Recall that the author is on their side. Image
Read 21 tweets
Jul 3
'The Unknown Warriors' (2006) is a collection of WWII veteran's views on modern Britain gathered via newspaper ad. So what did WWII veterans think of the 2006 UK? They hated it; 134 responses were negative vs only 6 positive (plus 31 N/A and 13 neutral). Excerpts below. Image
The below is typical (from a D-Day veteran): "I am absolutely disgusted with the way things are turning out... and sometimes wonder if it was worth all the suffering of a war." Image
"I have many, many misgivings on how matters have turned out. Problems seem to be resolved, by more and more legislation, instead of action at the source... What many veterans abhor, is the acceptance of homosexuality as the norm." Image
Read 57 tweets

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