Ryan Hisner Profile picture
Feb 5, 2024 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A dozen more sequences of this JN.1 + K444R + Y453F just dropped. All from Brazil, all collected in 2024. 12/13 are from the Brazilian state of Bahia, but those 12 sequences come from 11 different cities. This has the potential to be a big deal.
BA.2.86 had extremely high ACE2 affinity, but as you can see in @yunlong_cao's tweet below, JN.1's S:L455S, while a crucial antibody-evasion mutation, squandered pretty much all the extra ACE2 affinity of BA.2.86 (higher = weaker ACE2 binding). 2/4
By itself, lower ACE2 binding probably isn't a huge detriment, but it left JN.1 with little room to evolve further RBD mutations, which nearly always reduce ACE2. This is probably why JN.1's RBD has remained virtually unchanged since its emergence. 3/4
Y453F has granted huge increases in ACE2 binding in previous variants, so it likely will do the same for JN.1. This could give JN.1 the mutational flexibility it has so far lacked, opening the door to further spike mutations. Stay tuned. 4/4 github.com/cov-lineages/p…
@yousitonmyspot I think the bigger story is the possibility of further RBD mutations due to the incr. ACE2 binding from Y453F. That probably gives JN.1 much more room to maneuver.

OTOH, Y453F has caused instability in some previous lineages, so it may impose a cost as well. Too soon to say.

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More from @LongDesertTrain

Jun 10
Another fantastic preprint on BA.3.2's propensity for children, this time from @yunlong_cao & co.
They not only confirm the findings of David Ho's lab (that kids have ~0 antibody response to BA.3.2) but dig into the details of exactly why kids are so vulnerable to BA.3.2.

1/4
Two big wins for vaccination & mRNA vaccines:

1. Kids vaccinated before being infected have robust antibodies against BA.3.2

2. Unvaxed adults much more vulnerable to BA.3.2, esp. compared to mRNA-vaxed adults.

Read @yunlong_cao's 🧵 & very readable paper for details. 2/4 Image
There's still one major paradox here I can't wrap my head around: countries with the highest vaccination rates & the lowest proportion of children appear—very low sequencing makes hard conclusions difficult—to have the highest proportion of BA.3.2. 3/4
Read 6 tweets
Jun 4
New data from David Ho's lab showing that while adults & kids have ~equal antibody responses to XFG & NB.1.8.1, children have essentially no neutralizing antibodies to BA.3.2.

This seems to largely solve the BA.3.2 + kids mystery. 1/14 Image
If you've missed the story about how BA.3.2 (a novel, divergent saltation variant) is hugely overrepresented in sequences from children, this was my original (very quick) analysis, which subsequent data extended & confirmed. 2/
More details from this preprint. 50 is the limit of detection (i.e. zero). Nearly all kids under 7 had no detectable nAbs to BA.3.2, despite robust nAb titers against NB.1.8.1 & XFG.

Notably, most kids also had zero nAbs to ancestral D614G or XBB.1.5. 3/
biorxiv.org/content/10.648…Image
Read 14 tweets
Mar 26
So it's clear that BA.3.2 preferentially infects children, something we have never seen before in a SARS-CoV-2 variant.

Why?

The question's baffled me, but after a suggestion from Darren Martin, I think I have an explanation that makes sense.
1/16
I've tried to make sense of BA.3.2's penchant for kids by considering its unique spike: more compact, more closed, & more antibody-evasive than any other variant.

But I think another feature of BA.3.2 is responsible: its wholesale deletion of ORF7a, ORF7b, & ORF8 (∆ORF78).
2/
∆ORF78 is rare but not unheard of; it was in several late XBB variants (GW.5.1.1, FW.1.1, GE.1.2, etc) & a few branches of other variants. I've long thought these late XBB had an advantage in some population subsector, but I didn't suspect kids.
3/
Read 18 tweets
Mar 24
You have to wonder for how long we will continue seeing infections from 2020 continue to show up (in absurdly high quantities) in wastewater.
1/16
I suspect that the number of people continuously infected since 2020 or 2021 is much larger than we realize. It's impossible to prove, but there are case studies where a chronically infected person gets infected by a new variant, which drives out the original virus...
2/16
...which consequently leaves no trace that the person was chronically infected before the super-infecting variant—took over.

Why then are some Cryptic WW variants resistant to being outcompeted by newer variants?
3/16
Read 16 tweets
Mar 22
While the final outcome for BA.3.2 is uncertain, its unique characteristics—extensively remodeled spike NTD & SD1/SD2, novel S2 muts, & total deletion of ORF7a/7b/8—make it the best candidate for co-dominance we've seen, which could mark a new era in SARS-2 evolution. 1/
Until now, the broad pattern of SARS-2 evolution has been:

1) Emergence of a saltation variant originating in a chronic infection

2) Rapid growth/global dominance & a variant-driven wave of infection—especially if it emerges in late fall/winter (BA.1, XBB.1.5, JN.1). 2/
3) Stepwise evolution over the next few months/years, usually without driving major waves (the JN.1-descended KP.3.1.1 being a notable exception).

4) Repeat

3/
Read 34 tweets
Dec 29, 2025
Very proud to be a co-author on this comprehensive preprint on the novel, growing saltation lineage BA.3.2, together with @Tuliodna, Darren Martin, Dikeledi Kekana, and lead author @graemedor. 1/9
I would normally write a summary 🧵 of the BA.3.2 mutational analysis here, but as much of my contribution parallels my previous BA.3.2 threads I'll just link to those here, w/brief descriptions of each.

This is my first, big-picture BA.3.2 🧵. 2/9
Short thread from June when the first travel BA.3.2 sequences showed up. I think my prediction from back then has pretty much been borne out. 3/9
Read 9 tweets

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