A dozen more sequences of this JN.1 + K444R + Y453F just dropped. All from Brazil, all collected in 2024. 12/13 are from the Brazilian state of Bahia, but those 12 sequences come from 11 different cities. This has the potential to be a big deal.
BA.2.86 had extremely high ACE2 affinity, but as you can see in @yunlong_cao's tweet below, JN.1's S:L455S, while a crucial antibody-evasion mutation, squandered pretty much all the extra ACE2 affinity of BA.2.86 (higher = weaker ACE2 binding). 2/4
By itself, lower ACE2 binding probably isn't a huge detriment, but it left JN.1 with little room to evolve further RBD mutations, which nearly always reduce ACE2. This is probably why JN.1's RBD has remained virtually unchanged since its emergence. 3/4
Y453F has granted huge increases in ACE2 binding in previous variants, so it likely will do the same for JN.1. This could give JN.1 the mutational flexibility it has so far lacked, opening the door to further spike mutations. Stay tuned. 4/4 github.com/cov-lineages/p…
@yousitonmyspot I think the bigger story is the possibility of further RBD mutations due to the incr. ACE2 binding from Y453F. That probably gives JN.1 much more room to maneuver.
OTOH, Y453F has caused instability in some previous lineages, so it may impose a cost as well. Too soon to say.
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Very proud to be a co-author on this comprehensive preprint on the novel, growing saltation lineage BA.3.2, together with @Tuliodna, Darren Martin, Dikeledi Kekana, and lead author @graemedor. 1/9
I would normally write a summary 🧵 of the BA.3.2 mutational analysis here, but as much of my contribution parallels my previous BA.3.2 threads I'll just link to those here, w/brief descriptions of each.
BA.3.2 emerged in Nov 2024 after ~3 years of intrahost evolution with >50 new spike AA muts, but since then, it's changed very little. Could the drug molnupiravir (MOV) galvanize BA.3.2 into pursuing new evolutionary paths? A new 89-mut MOV BA.3.2 seq suggests it could. 1/11
Background on MOV: It's a mutagenic drug. Its purpose is to cause so many mutations that the virus becomes unviable & is cleared. But we've long known this often does not happen. Instead, the virus persists in highly mutated form & can be transmitted. 2/
I was an author on a paper published in @Nature that conclusively showed not only that MOV has created highly mutated, persistent viruses, but that these viruses have transmitted numerous times. See 🧵 below by lead author @theosanderson. 3/
The most valuable viral research tools—@nextstrain & CovSpectrum—are being destroyed, not only blocked from new data but now forbidden from even sharing info from the PAST. Why?
Because GISAID is run dictatorially by a con man, paranoid egomaniac, & liar named Peter Bogner. 1/
I use CovSpectrum & Nextstrain every day—& I'm not the only one. Every Covid thread I've ever posted here has relied partly on CovSpectrum & Nextstrain for information & visuals. These vital tools have now been stolen from us by a world-class grifter. 2/ thinkglobalhealth.org/article/to-fin…
For years scientists knew something was very, very wrong with GISAID, but the breakout story (from which much of this 🧵is based) came 2 years ago in @ScienceMagazine from @sciencecohen & Martin Enserik. 3/ science.org/content/articl…
3/77 sequences from the latest Netherlands upload are BA.3.2 as well as 4/86 seqs from Queensland, Australia, consistent w/the steady, slow growth we've seen in Germany, the UK, Ireland, & much of Australia. 1/4
One interesting (and possibly coincidental) aspect of the BA.3.2 tree: Two large branches have NSP14 mutations at adjacent AA residues—ORF1b:T1896I and ORF1b:H1897Y. 2/4
I don't have any idea what functional effects either of these mutations would have. They are both C->T mutations, which is the most common type, but they've been relatively uncommon throughout the pandemic, with fewer than 8000 sequences combined. 3/4
The first instance involved a small cluster of sequences that hospitalized several people & resulted in the death of a young child in early 2022. More on this one later. 2/15
The most recent example requires some background. In late 2024, a spectacularly mutated Delta appeared in Spain with 40 new spike mutations and numerous Cryptic markers.
Normally, I would write a thread about such a remarkable sequence, but there were some issues... 3/15
@StuartTurville has pointed out that WA delayed Covid spread longer than elsewhere in Australia. China has a somewhat similar immune history (as do other SE Asian countries). Perhaps BA.3.2 will do well in China once it arrives there? 2/4