NEW: America’s European and Asian allies have significantly ramped up their efforts to support Ukraine.🧵(1/10)
2/ European Council President Charles Michel stated on February 6 that the European Council and Parliament reached a provisional agreement on the creation of a new single dedicated instrument – the Ukraine Facility...
3/ ...–to pool the EU’s recently announced support package of 50 billion euros (about $54 billion) for Ukraine for 2024-2027.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU aims to start payments to the Ukraine Facility in March 2024.
4/ German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall stated on February 5 that it plans to send tens of thousands of 155mm artillery shells, dozens of Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 25 Leopard 1A5 tanks, and an unspecified number of Skynex air defense systems to Ukraine in 2024.
5/ South Korea’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) stated on February 6 that it plans to sign a contract with ammunition producer Poongsan in 2024 to mass-produce 155mm shells that have an extended range of 60 kilometers.
6/ South Korea reportedly began indirectly supplying artillery shells to Ukraine in early 2023, and these shells may go to European allies for indirect transfer to Ukraine.
7/ The EU and its member states have made available 138 billion euros (about $148.5 billion) - including its recently announced support package of 50 billion euros (about $54 billion) - to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
8/ In comparison, the US has appropriated $113 billion to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, of which over $75 billion was directly allocated to Ukraine for humanitarian, financial, and military support.
9/ The US government allocated the other $38 billion to security assistance-related funding, which the US government spent largely in the US and on US companies or personnel.
10/ As European partners continue to increase their support for Ukraine, US aid provision in the near to medium term remains vital to help Ukraine build its defense industrial base (DIB).
Read tonight's campaign assessment on the ISW Research Blog: iswresearch.org
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NEW: Putin attempted to use an interview w/ American media personality Tucker Carlson published on Feb. 8 to present to a wider Western audience a longstanding Kremlin information operation that falsely asserts that Russia is interested in a negotiated end to its war in Ukraine🧵
2/ Putin illustrated throughout the interview that Russia has no interest in meaningful or legitimate negotiations, however, and that Putin still seeks to destroy Ukraine as a state.
3/ Putin also displayed his overarching hostility towards the West and falsely accused the West of forcing Russia to attack Ukraine.
2/ The Kremlin frequently invokes the concept of “compatriots abroad” to claim special privileges for Russian nationals living outside of Russia and to set informational conditions for provocations in the countries where Russian “compatriots” live.
3/ The weaponization of the Russian presidential election will allow the Kremlin to stage informational provocations against Baltic governments, which fits into the Kremlin’s wider hybrid influence playbook.
NEW: The Israel Defense Force 162nd Division launched a new, division-size clearing operation in central and northern Gaza City in the past week. CTP-ISW assessed on February 3 that Palestinian fighters infiltrated southwestern Gaza City.
More from tonight's Iran Update ⬇️
2/ The IDF is conducting operations in the northern Gaza Strip to disrupt Hamas' attempts to reconstitute its governing authority.
Israeli forces continued clearing operations in western Khan Younis on February 5.
3/ Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reiterated on February 5 that the IDF plans to clear Hamas fighters and military infrastructure from Rafah and the central Gaza Strip.
NEW: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine and retain it to facilitate Ukrainian battlefield victories despite Russia’s numerical advantages in manpower and materiel. 🧵(1/6)
2/ Zaluzhnyi’s strategy aims to offset Ukraine’s existing challenges and pursue advantages over the Russian military through widespread technological innovation and adaptation.
3/ Zaluzhnyi argued that Ukrainian limitations and geopolitical challenges are incentivizing Ukraine to pursue the development and institutionalization of these new technological means.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on Jan. 31 that Moldova is economically “strangling” regions in Moldova that do not agree with the Moldovan government’s policies... 1/4
2/ ... likely referring to both Transnistria and Gagauzia, whose leaders have reportedly complained about Moldovan economic policies recently.
3/ Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is using increased “Russophobic rhetoric” to divert attention from Moldova’s internal socio-economic and political problems.
NEW: An “informed source” told Iraqi media that IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani traveled to Baghdad on January 29 to “stop [the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias'] military escalation” against US forces.🧵1/6
2/ Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in western and southwestern Gaza City. Palestinian fighters likely infiltrated these areas during January.
3/ An unspecified senior Hamas official told Reuters on January 30 that mediators provided a ceasefire proposal of unspecified length to Hamas.