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Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
@WarintheFuture
Feb 8, 2024 • 8 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
This reform agenda, laid out in President Zelenskyy's speech today about the dismissal of General Zaluzhnyi, is worth studying. There are some very interesting aspects. 1/8 🧵 Image
2/ First, a strategy for 2024. Clearly the President is unhappy with the current proposed military strategy for #Ukraine in the coming year. Getting this right, and balancing defensive and offensive operations as well as reconstituting the force, is a big task.
3/ 2nd, there is reference to logistics issues. This is not a new issue; it has been examined by analysts for some time. But it is obviously a priority for Zelenskyy because it has battlefield implications & implications for Ukraine's relationship with those providing support.
4/ 3rd, personnel issues. Once again, not an issue that is new to the Ukrainians or those analysing the war. But it is clearly hurting the military and is hurting Zelenskyy politically. The mobilisation debate is part of this but not the entirety of the challenge to be resolved.
5/ 4th, training. The counter offensive showed shortfalls in combined arms scaling as well as the integration of supporting elements. There have also been issues with basic training because of time available for training. Much that NATO can do to assist here.
6/ 5th, the size and number of headquarters. Ukraine is not the only military with this problem! But, large, numerous HQ are a drain on people and it imposes delay in wartime decision making and adaptation. An important issue for resolution.
7/ Finally, the new drone force highlights the need for wider transformation in how military forces - in Ukraine and beyond - need to think differently about their warfighting concepts and organisations. Much to be done here, in Ukraine and in the west.
8/ You can read the full transcript of Zelenskyy's speech here: president.gov.ua/en/news/vidsog…

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More from @WarintheFuture

Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Aug 23
Ukraine has developed a world-class long-range strike capability. My latest assessment explores this topic. Ukraine's strikes in the past few months, especially against the Russian oil industry, reinforce that Russia cannot win this war. 1/6 🇺🇦🧵 Image
2/ The impact of Ukraine's long-range strike campaign shows that Russia can only be handed a victory through a political process, which is why Putin is so desperate to convince the Trump administration about land transfers, and deny the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine.
3/ Ukraine's long-range strike capability has been a vital development for the Ukrainian Armed Forces since February 2022. They have developed an increasingly capable range of weapons to hit further into Russia and hold a wider range of strategic targets at risk.
Read 6 tweets
Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Aug 15
I have just published a short initial assessment on the outcomes of the Alaska Summit. A caveat is that we are likely to find out more later today, so I will update this if that occurs. There were a few things we might take away from the meeting. 1/9 (Image: @Reuters) Image
2/ First, Putin appeared to be more upbeat at the press conference than Trump did. While Trump did not appear downcast, there was a marked disparity in the overall posture of the two leaders. This indicates that no overall agreement has been reached but that some small points of common ground may have been agreed.
3/ Second, Putin was laying on the flattery of Trump in a big way. This is an attempt by Putin to ensure the next meeting is also a one-on-one and does not include Ukraine. It will also be an attempt to split Trump from European leaders by convincing him that Putin is not as bad as European leaders have portrayed. Putin also held out the prospect of business ties.
Read 9 tweets
Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Jul 27
My regular update on global conflicting & confrontation is now available. This week: the envelopment of Pokrovsk, Russia’s war on Ukraine’s cities and its protracted saturation strategy, and Exercise Talisman Sabre. 1/5 Image
2/ The Russians appear to be in the final phases of their double envelopment of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. The Russian campaign for Pokrovsk, which has been a long series of large and small battles, has been underway for more than a year. Russia also continued its large scale bombardment of Ukraine’s cities this week, targeting infrastructure and civilian morale. The largest attack in the past week was on 21 July, when the Russians launched 450 missiles and drones against targets inside Ukraine.
3/ The two key factors at play in this phase of the war pursued by Russia - protraction and saturation - offer a variety of insights for Western defence planners, as well as for Russia’s partners such as China and North Korea. For European and US defence planners, preparations for countering the protraction of war require both political and societal adaptation. Both China and North Korea, already inclined towards strategies of protraction and saturation, will be learning that the protraction and saturation method is a viable strategy for them as well if they decide to engage in military campaigns against Taiwan and South Korea.
Read 5 tweets
Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Jul 5
This week, the Chinese Foreign Minister told Europe's Union’s top diplomat that China can't afford a Russian loss in #Ukraine because the U.S. would then shift its whole focus to Beijing. China wants the war in Ukraine to continue for as long as possible. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 Image
2/ Despite Chinese protestations they are not a party to the war and that it seeks peace talks, Wang Yi has confirmed the strategic lens through which China actually views the war. Their calculus is this: China benefits from prolonging the war in Ukraine.
3/ There are three main reasons why Xi and his advisors view a continuation of the war in Ukraine as an advantage for China in the medium and long term. These elements of advantage rest in the strategic, economic, and ideological domains.
Read 5 tweets
Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Jul 3
Ukraine is teaching the rest of us what 'innovation in contact' looks like. While there are many nations exploring human-machine teaming for military operations, none are able to conduct the ultimate test of their ideas and technology like Ukraine does in combat every single day. 1/4🧵🇺🇦
2/ What we are witnessing from the Ukrainian armed forces is world-leading learning and adaptation on how crewed and uncrewed systems can operate together to achieve military objectives in very tough operational circumstances.
3/ This Ukrainian learning and adaptation is occuring across the land, air and sea domains, and features the evolution in operational concepts, organisations, training, technology, military-industrial collaboration as well as how military institutions can learn how to learn better.
Read 4 tweets
Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Jun 26
Ukraine and Russia have learned and adapted at multiple levels since 2022. Over the last couple of years however, the adaptation battle between Ukraine and Russia has metastasized into a global adaptation war. Democracies now confront an ‘authoritarian learning and adaptation bloc’. 1/7Image
2/ For some time, it has been clear that the four major authoritarian regimes – Iran, North Korea, China and Russia – have a shared interest in degrading American influence and destroying the post-WW2 order. This has led to a range of different agreements, leader summits and collaborative relationships between these four nations. It may have begun years ago but has been accelerated since 2022 by the war in Ukraine.
3/ This evolving ‘learning and adaptation bloc’ has resulted in its four key participants sharing battlefield lessons, collaborating in technology development and sanctions evasion, while also sharing and collaborating on methods of coercion, subversion, misinformation and, of course, learning and adapting.
Read 7 tweets

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