This reform agenda, laid out in President Zelenskyy's speech today about the dismissal of General Zaluzhnyi, is worth studying. There are some very interesting aspects. 1/8 🧵
2/ First, a strategy for 2024. Clearly the President is unhappy with the current proposed military strategy for #Ukraine in the coming year. Getting this right, and balancing defensive and offensive operations as well as reconstituting the force, is a big task.
3/ 2nd, there is reference to logistics issues. This is not a new issue; it has been examined by analysts for some time. But it is obviously a priority for Zelenskyy because it has battlefield implications & implications for Ukraine's relationship with those providing support.
4/ 3rd, personnel issues. Once again, not an issue that is new to the Ukrainians or those analysing the war. But it is clearly hurting the military and is hurting Zelenskyy politically. The mobilisation debate is part of this but not the entirety of the challenge to be resolved.
5/ 4th, training. The counter offensive showed shortfalls in combined arms scaling as well as the integration of supporting elements. There have also been issues with basic training because of time available for training. Much that NATO can do to assist here.
6/ 5th, the size and number of headquarters. Ukraine is not the only military with this problem! But, large, numerous HQ are a drain on people and it imposes delay in wartime decision making and adaptation. An important issue for resolution.
7/ Finally, the new drone force highlights the need for wider transformation in how military forces - in Ukraine and beyond - need to think differently about their warfighting concepts and organisations. Much to be done here, in Ukraine and in the west.
Over the past three years, both sides in the #Ukraine war have learned and adapted. Battlefield, strategic and international collaboration and adaptation are accelerating and intensifying, resulting in a global Adaptation War. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦
2/ In my latest piece, I examine how Ukraine and Russia have both 'learned to learn better' since the Russian full-scale invasion in 2022. I also look at their key battlefield and strategic adaptations.
3/ I also explore the emerging collaboration and adaptation between authoritarians. Russia's war in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East have spawned a rapid expansion in the sharing of insights between Russia, Iran, China and North Korea.
In short, the ‘leader of the free world’ is considering siding fully with a brutal authoritarian, endorsing its invasion of a democracy, and agreeing with forced territorial expansion. 1/7 🧵 🇺🇦 reuters.com/world/trump-en…
2/ This will legitimise and encourage the same behaviour elsewhere in Europe by Putin, who is already conducting subversion and sabotage across the continent, and preparing his military for future aggression against other nations in Eastern Europe. The current posture and signalling from the Trump administration makes future war elsewhere in Europe almost certain.
3/ The leaders in Iran, North Korea and China are watching closely. Each have aggressive designs against democratic neighbours. Each will be highly encouraged by this clownish, amateur negotiating style and demonstrated lack of interest in defending democratic nations and values.
China admits its latest aggression around #Taiwan is a rehearsal for a blockade. This latest exercise is described as "stern warning and forceful deterrence" by an Eastern Theater Commander spokesman. A quick examination of the exercise and its purpose. 1/9 🧵 channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/chin…
2/ The spokesman also described the latest exercise as focusing on "sea-air combat-readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, assault on maritime and ground targets, and blockade on key areas and sea lanes." Besides the obvious messaging and the application of military power to bully and coerce Taiwan, as well as other regional countries, into accepting Chinese pre-eminence over the Western Pacific region, why is China doing this now?
3/ First, these increasingly larger joint exercises normalise large-scale activity around Taiwan. This normalisation of military activity, at increasing scale and frequency over the past couple of years, complicates the ability of the U.S. to respond. It has to make a choice about when does the increasing scale become dangerous and worthy of an intervention.
From the nation that brought us the Marshall Plan, we now have this proposal for the “Trump Plan” for #Ukraine. Where the Marshall Plan embraced enlightened self-interest by America, the Trump plan is predatory, and basically an extortion bid against the people of Ukraine. 1/7
2/ Where the Marshall Plan was extended in scope to push back on Communism and Soviet influence and Europe, the Trump Plan basically employs Russian & Chinese economic coercion measures, and will negatively impact U.S. reputation in Europe.
3/ Where the Marshall Plan rebuilt infrastructure in Germany, France and even the UK, and ensured those nations had functioning, sovereign manufacturing and transport sectors, the Trump Plan aims seize Ukrainian assets.
“This is going to be great television…I will say that.” This is how the American president summed up the conclusion of the most fractious meeting to have occurred in front of journalists between an American president and his foreign counterpart in the modern era. An assessment of the Oval Office ambush of President Zelenskyy. 1/10🧵(Image: C-Span)
2/ The signs earlier in the week had pointed to a more productive meeting. President Trump had rolled back his narrative about Zelenskyy being a dictator, and the minerals agreement may have seen America having an enduring interest in the security of Ukraine. All that disintegrated in an explosive, unseemly exchange between Zelenskyy, Trump and Vance.
3/ What are the immediate implications of the Oval Office brawl that will be studied for years to come?
Three years ago today, the military forces of Russia launched an attack across the borders of #Ukraine on the ground and from the air. As Russian troops drove down roads in the hope of a short war and a victory parade in Kyiv, they received a mighty surprise. 1/16 🧵🇺🇦
2/ The response from the people of #Ukraine, to unite and fight whether they were soldier or civilian, inspired us all. In the Battle of #Kyiv and many other battles on the ground, at sea, in the air and in the hearts of minds of people around the world since, the innovation, resilience, courage and essential goodness of the Ukrainian people has stood out.
3/ The rallying cry of their president, who demanded ammunition and not a ride, was a decisive and historic moment. He not only rallied his own people but showed us all what physical and moral courage from national leaders can and should look like in the 21st century. We need more of this urgently.