Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Feb 8, 2024 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This reform agenda, laid out in President Zelenskyy's speech today about the dismissal of General Zaluzhnyi, is worth studying. There are some very interesting aspects. 1/8 🧵 Image
2/ First, a strategy for 2024. Clearly the President is unhappy with the current proposed military strategy for #Ukraine in the coming year. Getting this right, and balancing defensive and offensive operations as well as reconstituting the force, is a big task.
3/ 2nd, there is reference to logistics issues. This is not a new issue; it has been examined by analysts for some time. But it is obviously a priority for Zelenskyy because it has battlefield implications & implications for Ukraine's relationship with those providing support.
4/ 3rd, personnel issues. Once again, not an issue that is new to the Ukrainians or those analysing the war. But it is clearly hurting the military and is hurting Zelenskyy politically. The mobilisation debate is part of this but not the entirety of the challenge to be resolved.
5/ 4th, training. The counter offensive showed shortfalls in combined arms scaling as well as the integration of supporting elements. There have also been issues with basic training because of time available for training. Much that NATO can do to assist here.
6/ 5th, the size and number of headquarters. Ukraine is not the only military with this problem! But, large, numerous HQ are a drain on people and it imposes delay in wartime decision making and adaptation. An important issue for resolution.
7/ Finally, the new drone force highlights the need for wider transformation in how military forces - in Ukraine and beyond - need to think differently about their warfighting concepts and organisations. Much to be done here, in Ukraine and in the west.
8/ You can read the full transcript of Zelenskyy's speech here: president.gov.ua/en/news/vidsog…

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More from @WarintheFuture

Nov 18
I recently returned from another research visit to #Ukraine, my second for 2025. I have written a new white paper, published by the @CSIS, which explores 7 strategic insights based on knowledge gained on my recent visit & other research. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦 Image
2/ The white paper covers a range of subjects related to how #Ukraine and #Russia are fighting this war. The seven insights not only illuminate the state of the war, and the degree of learning and #adaptation occurring, they provide lessons that western military institutions must analyse and heed.
3/ The seven subjects covered are:

1. Drone saturation and Russian drone innovation.
2. The new tactical battle triangle.
3. The ongoing and accelerating adaptation battle.
4. Long-range strike operations.
5. Ground-based air defence.
6. Russia's tactical and strategic advantages.
7. War strategy and trajectory.

I highlight just a couple of these below.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 14
Yesterday, my report on the new global adaptation war was published by the @scsp_ai . The report proposes that the learning and adaptation ecosystem spawned by the war in #Ukraine has now metastasised into an international learning and #adaptation competition. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦 Image
2/ As the report describes, in the past three years, Ukraine and Russia have learned and adapted. Both sides have also learned to learn better and to absorb lessons into their military and industrial systems with increasing speed. But the sharing of lessons by both nations has seen the Ukraine Adaptation Battle transform into a global Adaptation War.
3/ A new adversary learning and adaptation bloc has emerged. While not a formal alliance, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have developed a mesh of different agreements and strategic partnerships that have allowed these authoritarian regimes to construct a connected knowledge market on 21st century strategic competition and conflict.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 8
I have just published my weekly update on modern war and strategic competition. This week: the Battle of Pokrovsk, Russian casualties, deep-strike campaigns, China's 3rd aircraft carrier commissions, as well as my recommended war and national security reads. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 Image
2/ In #Ukraine, the Battle of #Pokrovsk continues. While an audacious air assault was conducted this week, it is hard to see that it will arrest the overall Russian momentum in enveloping the city. Both Ukraine & Russia are continuing their deep strike operations in the lead up to winter, although Ukraine's strikes are yet to change Putin's strategic calculus about the war.
3/ In the #Pacific, Chinese aggression around #Taiwan continued, albeit at a lower tempo than previous months. The Chinese also commissioned their third aircraft carrier during the week. Taiwan announced several initiatives related to the operation of unmanned systems.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8
Recently, I returned from my second 2025 visit to Ukraine. It was, as always, both enlightening & inspiring to spend time with Ukrainian military personnel who are innovating & fighting to keep Ukraine free. I published several articles while in #Ukraine, linked below. In this long-ish thread, I cover drone operations. 1/20 🧵🇺🇦Image
2/ During my visit, I published a series of articles. These were at my Substack, Futura Doctrina, and can be read here: mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraine-disp…

I also published a couple of pieces for the Lowy Interpreter, which can be read at this link: lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete… Image
3/ In this thread, as noted above, I will cover my observations and assessments about the operation of autonomous systems in #Ukraine.
Read 20 tweets
Oct 13
Russia has employed missiles similar to Tomahawks since Day 1 of the full-scale invasion. This is NOT escalation. It is just leveling the playing field for a three-year-long Ukrainian long-range strike campaign that has now achieved critical mass and momentum. How have they done this? 1/16 🧵 🇺🇦
msn.com/en-us/news/wor…Image
2/ Back in 2022, when Ukraine received HIMARS, it changed the game. Ukraine could now hit Russia at depth. But it was clear even back then that Ukraine had bigger plans for making Russia hurt through even deeper strikes.
mickryan.substack.com/p/striking-fur…Image
3/ By the 2nd half of 2023, Ukraine’s strategic aspirations for deep strike against Russia were clear. As I wrote back then, “throughout the war the Ukrainian Armed Forces have undertaken a range of adaptations to their force posture, structure and processes to enhance their operational effectiveness.  Their development of more complex, long-range strike capabilities stands out.”Image
Read 16 tweets
Oct 8
The last few years have seen many examples of wartime adaptation. This has occurred in #Ukraine as well as the Middle East. We have also seen nations in Europe, North America and Asia seek to learn and conduct peacetime adaptation. But there is a 3rd form of #adaptation that is crucial. 1/4 🧵Image
2/ This 3rd form of adaptation is that which occurs in the short period between peace and war: Peace to War Adaptation. It is important to understand this form of adaptation because it is the crucial process of learning and change that connects peacetime and wartime adaptation.
3/ The effectiveness or otherwise of Peace to War Adaptation can also influence the trajectory of a war. It is important to ensure governments, industry, the military and society are all prepared for such a rapid cognitive shift.
Read 4 tweets

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