Itay Epshtain Profile picture
Feb 9 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
BREAKING: #Israel's Netanyahu confirms operational plans to forcibly transfer - and possibly deport - 1.3 million #Palestinians coerced to #Rafah at #Gaza's most southern end. An operational plan conceived, as I had argued, four months ago. Image
#Israel's former National Security Advisor and close confidant of the PM, Meir Ben-Shabbat, has laid out the options leading Israel down the path of a war of aggression - a gross violation of international law - on 13 October already, let's recall; Image
The directive to deport 2.4 million #Palestinians out of occupied #Gaza and onto #Egypt and beyond has been officially endorsed by #Israel's Ministry of Intelligence on 13 October, Ben-Shabbat being the author. Image
#Israel's Ministry of Intelligence deportation directive outlines the four stages: 1. A call on #Palestinian civilians to vacate north #Gaza and allow for land operations; 2. Sequential land operations from north to south Gaza (...) Image
3. Leaving routes open across #Rafah to #Egypt; 4. Establishing "tent cities" in northern Sinai and the construction of cities to resettle Palestinians in Egypt. Stage 3 is operationalized at present, and may very well lead to Stage 4.
The plan must be seen in light of #Israel's war of debilitation against #Gaza, amounting to the crime of aggression:
The grave breaches and serious violations of international law that would come from the operationalization of the #Israeli #Rafah plan are clear:
The mass deportation of #Palestinians from #Rafah, #Gaza to #Egypt is part of the "total war" and "new regional order" promoted by former #Israeli National Security Advisor in an article published yesterday. Image
His colleagues at the 'Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy' confirmed earlier this week that #Egyptian leadership opposed the deportation of #Palestinians to #Sinai "which will become a permanent presence," and offered that #Israel should force their hand (...) Image
Such #Israeli leverage over #Egypt includes revisiting the leniency shown by the former (in the context of CT operations) on the limits of the number of troops Cairo can deploy in the Sinai under the Camp David Accords. A veiled threat against Egyptian national security to force it to accept the presence of #Palestinian refugees.Image
Revisiting this morning an unpublished paper I wrote in 2022, which gives the backdrop to what Israel may use as leverage to force Egypt into accepting the protracted displacement of Palestinians in Sinai.
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@Palestine_UN Ambassador Mansour in an urgent letter to Security Council President @PMUN_GUY Ambassador Rodrigues-Birkett, calls #UNSC to save Palestinians from the "real threat of forced transfer," and "protect the Palestinian civilian population from further atrocities." The Council must heed his call!Image

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More from @EpshtainItay

Feb 8
The rolling #Israeli ground operation in #Rafah, southern #Gaza was planned on 13 October 2023 by the Ministry of Intelligence, with the intent to force the mass deportation of #Palestinians across the border to #Egypt. The risk of this plan materializing is now at its highest.
The law is clear, imposing an absolute prohibition on the deportation of occupied peoples, such as #Palestinians in #Gaza, and #Israel will not be able to preclude the wrongfulness of such acts (or the attempt to annex Gaza in the aftermath, amounting to a crime of aggression). Image
Attempts to present forcible transfers or deportations as consensual or negotiated were addressed by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and rejected. The law is clear that coercion leading to forced displacement is equally prohibited. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 28
BREAKING: Within the first hour the "Return to #Gaza Conference" - attended by #Israeli Cabinet Ministers and Members of Parliament - presents a plan for the re-establishment of 15 Israeli settlements and the addition of 6 new ones, on where recently destroyed #Palestinian communities stood.Image
The list of those in attendance corresponds to #Israeli officials named by #SouthAfrica in the @ICJ proceeding in connection with direct and public indictment to #genocide.
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That #Israeli officials would convene a high level meeting to plan an act of aggression - the acquisition of occupied territory and its colonization - is an early indication of intent to breach the provisional measures order by the @CIJ_ICJ.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 27
The @CIJ_ICJ ordered that "#Israel shall take immediate and effective measures to enable the provision of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance to address the adverse conditions of life faced by Palestinians in the #Gaza Strip." What would compliance look like?Image
Article 43 of the Hague Regulations of 1907 - forming the core constitution of belligerent occupation - demands that the occupant of #Gaza, #Israel "take all the measures in his power to restore, and ensure, as far as possible, public order and safety"
Made in French, the authoritative text of the Hague Regulations calls for the restoration of public life (la vie publics) in #Gaza, an extensive obligation commensurate with the degree of Israeli control. Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 26
The #ICJ issued an order indicating provisional measures, satisfied that it has jurisdiction Ratione Materiae, meaning that the features and characteristics of the subject matter of a dispute between South Africa and Israel on the application of the Genocide Convention fall under its jurisdiction.
The requirements of Article IX of the Convention as a source of authority having been satisfied, the Court addressed the Locus Standi of South Africa. In doing so it recalled its 2020 order of provisional measures in Gambia v. Myanmar, which noted that all states parties to the Genocide Convention have a common interest to ensure that acts of genocide are prevented and that, if they occur, their authors do not enjoy impunity. “That common interest implies that the obligations in question are owed by any State party to all the other States parties to the Convention.”
The Court held that these obligations may be defined as ‘obligations erga omnes partes’ in the sense that each state party has an interest in compliance with them in any given case, and not only a specially affected State, and may – as South Africa did - invoke the responsibility of another State party with a view to ascertaining the alleged failure to comply with its obligations erga omnes partes, and to bring that failure to an end.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 18
It would be reasonable to expect, based on past practice and the urgency of the matter, that the #ICJ indicate provisional measures in the case of #Gaza by the end of next week. But what would happen should the parties fail to comply with its ruling? Image
Recourse to Article 94 of the UN Charter - to have the Security Council #UNSC enforce an @CIJ_ICJ ruling - is sparse, and Council action happened on the rarest of occasions. Let's recap: Image
1. In 1951, in the matter of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company the Council dismissed the request by re-adressing it to the Court. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 16
In June 1967 #Israel occupied #Gaza, and has since exercised "actual authority" over it as a hostile army (despite contrary claims, it has never relinquished its legislative and administrative powers).
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In August 1967 the legal advisor to the occupying forces issued the following guidance (declassified by @Akevot):
"4. The military commander enjoys powers and responsibilities stemming from the fact of occupation and the law of armed conflict codified in international treaties. Image
"5. The IDF as a benevolent occupier and Israel as a law abiding state, must not only safeguard its own interests. International law imposes a duty to protect the rights of occupied persons: restore public life and ensure essential services."
Read 4 tweets

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