Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Feb 13, 2024 19 tweets 10 min read Read on X
In today's #vatniksoup, I'll talk about what happens if Russia succeeds in their invasion and permanently holds the regions they now control. If this happens, there will be much more pain and suffering - without peace - for the Ukrainians in the future.

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There is now a lot of talk, especially in the US, that the West should stop sending money and military aid to Ukraine and that this only "prolongs the war and the suffering in the country," parroting Putin's words from his recent interview with Tucker Carlson.

2/18

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This is of course just political rhetoric and part of Donald Trump's campaign ahead of the presidential election, especially for power-hungry MAGA Republicans like @JDVance1, who criticized Trump harshly before he was politically cuckolded by him.

3/18
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First, these pundits often call for "peace agreement", but they never discuss what that agreement would look like. First of all, Russia annexed regions that it doesn't even fully control, including Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts.

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Second, even if such an agreement is made, it simply can't be trusted. For example, @carlbildt told he had discussion with Russian security intel, who were "hell bent" that Russia would attempt to take Kharkiv and Odesa, and set up a Kremlin-controlled puppet regime in Kyiv.
5/18

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Third, if Russia gets what they want in Ukraine, they will move on to other targets. They will most probably challenge NATO's Article 5, invading small regions in Latvia or Northern Finland. This way they try to challenge the credibility of NATO and dissolve it.

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But let's examine what Russia has done in the temporarily controlled areas in Ukraine just to see what "having peace" actually means to Ukrainians. There are a lot of reports & evidence on this, for example a research published by The European Broadcasting Union in Nov 2023.
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Eyewitnesses and experts have revealed incidences of torture, coercion, deportation, cultural erasure, and military indoctrination in the Russian-controlled regions. For example, a former police officer was beaten with an iron club and waterboarded.

8/18
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One of the interviewees stated that "if you don't want to be Russian, you will die.If you support the Ukrainian identity, you will have serious problems: imprisonment, death, torture." Russia also forcefully mobilizes men from the captured regions to fight against their own.
9/18
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Ukrainians have stated that if you don't accept Russian passport in the captured regions, you don't get pension, food or medical services. Thus, many elderly people require medication and obtain Russian passport just to stay alive.

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Leonid Remyga, a medical doctor who worked in Kherson told that they were forced to give out Russian birth certificates. Everyone in the captured regions were also forced to memorize the Russian anthem and if they couldn't, they were beaten and tortured.

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In addition, all children have to attend Russian schools and follow the Russian curriculum. Ukrainian children are being denied access to their own culture and their own history, and are being forced to learn the revised history of Russkiy Mir instead.

12/18
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So, if you think that the "peace agreement" will bring any kind of peace for the Ukrainians, you are simply delusional. It only means that Russia will continue their forced indoctrination, regroup, and continue their genocidal war some time later.

13/18
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It also means that the abduction and forced adoption of Ukrainian children to Russia will continue. Russia is desperately trying to fix their failing demographics, and according to Article 2 Section E of the 1948 genocide convention, this constitutes as genocide.

14/18
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We can see this just by looking at what's happening in Mariupol: once a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, Russia has turned it into a Potemkin village and the Kremlin is planning to move around 300 000 Russians to reside in the city by 2035:



15/18

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And it's not like they haven't done this before. Both Donbas and Crimea regions were turned predominantly Russian by Stalin's forced settlements. He then restricted the use of Ukrainian language and forced most schools to use Russian.

16/18
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In addition, if Russia advances in Ukraine, more events like Bucha and Izium massacres will emerge, many more Ukrainians will flee their country, and other authoritarian regimes will be emboldened by Russia's example and the West's weak response to it.

17/18
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Now, the US of course has the right to their own foreign policy and their democratically elected politicians can make whatever choices they want, but they should also remember that at the same time they're abandoning their closest allies in the West.

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Jul 28
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian politician and First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia, Sergey Kiriyenko. He’s best known for running both domestic and foreign disinformation and propaganda operations for the Kremlin.

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On paper, and in photos, Kiriyenko is just as boring as most of the Kremlin’s “political technologists”: between 2005-2016 he headed the Rosatom nuclear energy company, but later played a leading role in the governance of Russia-occupied territories in Ukraine.

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What is a political technologist? In Russia, they’re spin doctors & propaganda architects who shape opinion, control narratives, and manage elections — often by faking opposition, staging events, and spreading disinfo to maintain Putin’s power and the illusion of democracy.

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Read 21 tweets
Jul 27
Let me show you how a Pakistani (or Indian, they're usually the same) AI slop farm/scam operates. The account @designbonsay is a prime example: a relatively attractive, AI-generated profile picture and a ChatGPT-style profile description are the first red flags.

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The profile's posts are just generic engagement farming, usually using AI-generated photos of celebrities or relatively attractive women.

These posts are often emotionally loaded and ask the user to interact with them ("like and share if you agree!").

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Then there's the monetization part. This particular account sells "pencil art", which again are just AI-generated slop.

Country code for the phone number is in Pakistan.

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Read 5 tweets
Jul 15
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American lawyer and politician, Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee). He’s best-known for opposing the aid to Ukraine, undermining NATO by calling the US to withdraw from the alliance, and for fighting with a bunch of braindead dogs online.

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Like many of the most vile vatniks out there, “Based Mike” is a lawyer by profession. He hails from the holy land of Mormons, Utah, where he faces little political competition, allowing him to make the most outrageous claims online without risking his Senate seat.

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Before becoming a senator, Mike fought to let a nuclear waste company dump Italian radioactive waste in Utah, arguing it was fine if they just diluted it. The state said no, the public revolted, and the courts told poor Mikey to sit down.

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Read 23 tweets
Jul 14
While Ukrainians are terror bombed on a daily basis, rich Russians live in Europe like kings and queens.

This young lady lives in Portugal, and travels freely to Ibiza...
...the Alps...
... and of course Paris.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 7
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American national security policy professional and the current under secretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby (@ElbridgeColby). He’s best-known for fighting with cartoon dogs online and for halting military aid to Ukraine.

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Elbridge "Cheese" Colby earned his bachelor’s degree from Yale and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School. Before entering government, he worked at top think tanks and in the intelligence community, focusing on nuclear policy and strategic planning.

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Cheese quickly became a key voice for a “China First” strategy, arguing the US must prioritize military buildup in Asia over commitments in Europe or the Middle East. He sees (or saw, rather) Taiwan as the core test of US credibility.

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Read 23 tweets
Jul 6
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’m going to talk about… Vatnik Soup! As some of you know, we also have a website where you can find every soup ever published. The site also has other useful resources, making it the most comprehensive resource on Russian disinformation & vatniks.

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Unfortunately, Elon has flagged the website as malware, as he might not be very happy about the soups I wrote about him - so far, they have garnered over 60 million views on X/Twitter.

The “freedom of speech” spokesperson doesn’t seem too keen on free speech, after all.

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The heart & soul of the website is of course the soups page. There you can find all 360+ soups, which can be sorted chronologically, by popularity, etc. You can also search for soups by title or even in the soup text:

3/15

vatniksoup.com/en/soups/
Read 15 tweets

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