Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Feb 13, 2024 19 tweets 10 min read Read on X
In today's #vatniksoup, I'll talk about what happens if Russia succeeds in their invasion and permanently holds the regions they now control. If this happens, there will be much more pain and suffering - without peace - for the Ukrainians in the future.

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There is now a lot of talk, especially in the US, that the West should stop sending money and military aid to Ukraine and that this only "prolongs the war and the suffering in the country," parroting Putin's words from his recent interview with Tucker Carlson.

2/18

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This is of course just political rhetoric and part of Donald Trump's campaign ahead of the presidential election, especially for power-hungry MAGA Republicans like @JDVance1, who criticized Trump harshly before he was politically cuckolded by him.

3/18
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First, these pundits often call for "peace agreement", but they never discuss what that agreement would look like. First of all, Russia annexed regions that it doesn't even fully control, including Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts.

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Second, even if such an agreement is made, it simply can't be trusted. For example, @carlbildt told he had discussion with Russian security intel, who were "hell bent" that Russia would attempt to take Kharkiv and Odesa, and set up a Kremlin-controlled puppet regime in Kyiv.
5/18

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Third, if Russia gets what they want in Ukraine, they will move on to other targets. They will most probably challenge NATO's Article 5, invading small regions in Latvia or Northern Finland. This way they try to challenge the credibility of NATO and dissolve it.

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But let's examine what Russia has done in the temporarily controlled areas in Ukraine just to see what "having peace" actually means to Ukrainians. There are a lot of reports & evidence on this, for example a research published by The European Broadcasting Union in Nov 2023.
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Eyewitnesses and experts have revealed incidences of torture, coercion, deportation, cultural erasure, and military indoctrination in the Russian-controlled regions. For example, a former police officer was beaten with an iron club and waterboarded.

8/18
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One of the interviewees stated that "if you don't want to be Russian, you will die.If you support the Ukrainian identity, you will have serious problems: imprisonment, death, torture." Russia also forcefully mobilizes men from the captured regions to fight against their own.
9/18
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Ukrainians have stated that if you don't accept Russian passport in the captured regions, you don't get pension, food or medical services. Thus, many elderly people require medication and obtain Russian passport just to stay alive.

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Leonid Remyga, a medical doctor who worked in Kherson told that they were forced to give out Russian birth certificates. Everyone in the captured regions were also forced to memorize the Russian anthem and if they couldn't, they were beaten and tortured.

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In addition, all children have to attend Russian schools and follow the Russian curriculum. Ukrainian children are being denied access to their own culture and their own history, and are being forced to learn the revised history of Russkiy Mir instead.

12/18
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So, if you think that the "peace agreement" will bring any kind of peace for the Ukrainians, you are simply delusional. It only means that Russia will continue their forced indoctrination, regroup, and continue their genocidal war some time later.

13/18
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It also means that the abduction and forced adoption of Ukrainian children to Russia will continue. Russia is desperately trying to fix their failing demographics, and according to Article 2 Section E of the 1948 genocide convention, this constitutes as genocide.

14/18
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We can see this just by looking at what's happening in Mariupol: once a symbol of Ukrainian resistance, Russia has turned it into a Potemkin village and the Kremlin is planning to move around 300 000 Russians to reside in the city by 2035:



15/18

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And it's not like they haven't done this before. Both Donbas and Crimea regions were turned predominantly Russian by Stalin's forced settlements. He then restricted the use of Ukrainian language and forced most schools to use Russian.

16/18
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In addition, if Russia advances in Ukraine, more events like Bucha and Izium massacres will emerge, many more Ukrainians will flee their country, and other authoritarian regimes will be emboldened by Russia's example and the West's weak response to it.

17/18
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Now, the US of course has the right to their own foreign policy and their democratically elected politicians can make whatever choices they want, but they should also remember that at the same time they're abandoning their closest allies in the West.

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Aug 18
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll explain the Alaska Fiasco and how it marks the peak of Trump’s two-year betrayal of Ukraine. What was sold as “peace talks” turned into a spectacle of weakness, humiliation, empty promises, and photo-ops that handed Putin exactly what he wanted.

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Let’s start with the obvious: Trump desperately wants the gold medal of the Nobel Peace Prize, mainly because Obama got one. That’s why he’s now LARPing as a “peace maker” in every conflict: Israel-Gaza, Azerbaijan-Armenia, India-Pakistan, and of course Ukraine-Russia.

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Another theory is that Putin holds kompromat — compromising material such as videos or documents — that would put Trump in an extremely bad light. Some have suggested it could be tied to the Epstein files or Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election.

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Read 25 tweets
Aug 11
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll talk about engagement farming: a cynical social media tactic to rack up likes, shares, and comments. From rage farming to AI-powered outrage factories, engagement farming is reshaping online discourse and turning division into profit.

1/23 Photo by JULIE OLIVER /Postmedia
Engagement farming is a social media tactic aimed at getting maximum likes, shares, and comments, with truth being optional. It thrives on provocative texts, images, or videos designed to spark strong reactions, boost reach, and turn online outrage into clicks and cash.

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One subset of engagement farming is rage farming: a tactic built to provoke strong negative emotions through outrageous or inflammatory claims. By triggering anger or moral outrage, these posts often generate 100s or even 1,000s of heated comments, amplifying their reach.

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Read 24 tweets
Aug 6
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll cover the autocratic concept of “Good Tsar, Bad Boyars”: the idea that the leader is wise and just, but constantly sabotaged by corrupt advisors. This narrative shields the ruler from blame, and it’s used by both Putin and Trump today.

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The phrase “Good Tsar, Bad Boyars” (Царь хороший, бояре плохие), also known as Naïve Monarchism, refers to a long-standing idea in Russian political culture: the ruler is good and benevolent, but his advisors are corrupt, incompetent and responsible for all failures.

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From this perception, any positive action taken by the government is viewed as being an accomplishment of the benevolent leader, whereas any negative one is viewed as being caused by lower-level bureaucrats or “boyars”, without the approval of the leader.

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Read 21 tweets
Jul 28
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian politician and First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia, Sergey Kiriyenko. He’s best known for running both domestic and foreign disinformation and propaganda operations for the Kremlin.

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On paper, and in photos, Kiriyenko is just as boring as most of the Kremlin’s “political technologists”: between 2005-2016 he headed the Rosatom nuclear energy company, but later played a leading role in the governance of Russia-occupied territories in Ukraine.

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What is a political technologist? In Russia, they’re spin doctors & propaganda architects who shape opinion, control narratives, and manage elections — often by faking opposition, staging events, and spreading disinfo to maintain Putin’s power and the illusion of democracy.

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Read 21 tweets
Jul 27
Let me show you how a Pakistani (or Indian, they're usually the same) AI slop farm/scam operates. The account @designbonsay is a prime example: a relatively attractive, AI-generated profile picture and a ChatGPT-style profile description are the first red flags.

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The profile's posts are just generic engagement farming, usually using AI-generated photos of celebrities or relatively attractive women.

These posts are often emotionally loaded and ask the user to interact with them ("like and share if you agree!").

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Then there's the monetization part. This particular account sells "pencil art", which again are just AI-generated slop.

Country code for the phone number is in Pakistan.

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Read 5 tweets
Jul 15
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce an American lawyer and politician, Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee). He’s best-known for opposing the aid to Ukraine, undermining NATO by calling the US to withdraw from the alliance, and for fighting with a bunch of braindead dogs online.

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Like many of the most vile vatniks out there, “Based Mike” is a lawyer by profession. He hails from the holy land of Mormons, Utah, where he faces little political competition, allowing him to make the most outrageous claims online without risking his Senate seat.

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Before becoming a senator, Mike fought to let a nuclear waste company dump Italian radioactive waste in Utah, arguing it was fine if they just diluted it. The state said no, the public revolted, and the courts told poor Mikey to sit down.

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Read 23 tweets

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