Thread by @Inkvisiit

A short thread on Kupiansk sector and the disposition of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (1GTA). Between 19-28JAN24 Russian forces from the 1GTA managed to capture the villages of Krokhmal'ne and Tabaivka. 1/

The offensive seems to have been local and opportunistic in nature, with several UkrAF 103rd TDF Bde positions being overrun by assaulting elements from RuAF 47th Guards Tank Division (47GTD) 2/

Russians were able to seriously threaten UkrAF positions around the village of Berestove and Kyslivka-Kotlyarivka, but it seems that at least for the time being RuAF forces have been unable to further exploit their initial success. 3/

Capture of Krokhmal'ne and Tabaivka has resulted in forming a salient some 5km deep and 5-8km wide. After the initial effort by elements of 47thGTD petered out, RuAF has reportedly reorganized their forces in the salient 4/

bringing forth elements from the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division (2GMRD). So far there has been no evidence of them being able to advance any further. Salient continues to threaten Ukr positions in Kyslivka-Kotlyarivka, 5/

and if the 1GTA were to go on in to fully committed offensive, this position could be at risk of being cut-off and overrun. At the moment it seems that no such commitment of 1GTA forces has been made yet. 6/

Comparison of sentinel imagery from the area of the salient between 13JAN and 21JAN does not show any significant preparatory fires from the Russians which further reinforces the image that this was mainly an opportunistic local action 7/

rather than beginning of full-scale offensive by 1GTA. For comparison here are sentinel images from Ivanivske-Klischiivka area near Bakhmut showing the extensive cratering from artillery fires between 13-23JAN24. 8/

The 1st Guards Tank Army seems to be concentrating bulk of its forces along roughly 30 km wide area of the front between Verkhnia-Duvanka and Svatove. 9/

This concentration seems to comprise of elements from all three divisions of the 1GTA: 2GMRD, 4GTD and 47GTD. Additionally a grouping of 27thSGMRB and 7th MRR seems to be present near Kuzemivka-Novoselivske. 10/

Several Russian territorial regiments are also reportedly being used to reinforce 1GTA units. Overall, it seems that the 1GTA has been able to recover after their defeat during the Kharkiv counteroffensive, but it remains to be seen if they are able to 11/

significantly ramp up and scale their offensive operations in the near future. So far concentration of offensive force, overcoming obstacles & minefields, suppression of opposing artillery and proper combined arms coordination 12/

are as difficult for Russians as they are to Ukrainians. Russians do however enjoy clear manpower and munitions advantage. To which degree Russians have been able to refit 1GTA with vehicles and other heavy weapons is also another open question. 13/

As the battle for Avdiivka now approaches its climax, Ukr high command has to make difficult decisions whether to commit significant reserves there or not. This may in turn serve to signal RuAF to commit 1GTA into general offensive 14/

once Ukr reserves are committed elsewhere. I will end this thread with a few disclaimers regarding the maps: UkrAF units are purely based on videos and other information published by UkrAF. 15/

With Russian forces I was forced to rely heavily on secondary sources like Konstantin Mashovets () which naturally means that the information presented must be taken with degree of caution. 16/t.me/zvizdecmanhustu

I will see if I can work out a similar thread on the situation around Avdiivka in the near future, but that battle may wrap up sooner than I can get it done (the situation over there does not seem good at all). 17/17