Key Points about Avdiivka Defense, covered in our recent analysis (full analysis available on the website listed in my bio).
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2/ Currently, Russian forces maintain a significant numerical advantage in both personnel and vehicles. Despite initial errors, high losses, and unrealistic expectations, they continuously replenish their troops with fresh recruits and preserve pressure
3/ Russian troops incurred substantial casualties, prompting the 25th Combined Arms Army to transfer equipment to the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies for ongoing assaults.
4/ The situation improved for Russians upon entering the city in January, infiltrating residential areas with an element of surprise, seizing rear positions. Casualty ratios tend to equalize in urban areas.
5/ Lack of ammunition for counter-battery fire allowed large-scale deployment of Russian artillery, weakening Ukrainian defenses. Multiple groupings exploited weak spots for envelopment.
6/ Several units on the ground confirmed that recently captured POWs were recruited in December and January. Approximately 10 prisoners were recruited in mid-January
7/ An estimated 37-42 KAB bombs were dropped on Avdiivka in a single day, causing extensive damage despite their relative inaccuracy.
8/ With Russians nearing the creation of multiple pockets in the city, limited options remain—withdraw or attempt a very risky counter-attack.
9/ What’s next?
The most logical course of action at this point would be a withdrawal from Avdiivka. While viewed unfavorably politically, defending Avdiivka initially inflicted substantial damage on the Russian military, preventing them from advancing as deep as planned.
The most logical course of action at this point would be a withdrawal from Avdiivka. While viewed unfavorably politically, defending Avdiivka initially inflicted substantial damage on the Russian military, preventing them from advancing as deep as planned.
10/ As of February 9, 2024, OSINT analyst @naalsio26 reported over 655 vehicles damaged, destroyed, or captured on the outskirts of Avdiivka. Between October 10th and November 28th, our team reported more than 211 damaged or abandoned Russian vehicles near Avdiivka.
11/ During this highly dynamic environment, the trajectory of the battle suggests an inevitable withdrawal of Ukrainian forces and the imminent fall of important defense positions such as Zenit. Barring any unexpected events, this chapter is likely to conclude soon.
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