AJ Profile picture
Feb 15, 2024 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
🔥Renault Group almost tricked me. In this thread I briefly discuss why the shown 8.1% (H2 23) operating profit margin is 🐴💩 and Renault didn't report a "record breaking" margin. The reported H2 23 margin is actually a rather disappointing 1.5% based on reported H2 operating income of just €389M and €25,527M in revenue. Renault will not show you this number anywhere in their materials! For the FY2023, Renault only gets to 4.7%! This number too Renault won't show you anywhere.

My original post;

1/ Renault showed this slide with a relatively high 7.6% and 8.1% operating margin for H1 and H2 2023 respectively.Image
2/These number result in a full year 2023 margin of 7.9% and 'operating profit' of €4,117M (remember those numbers, they become important later) Image
3/The shown bridge shows a walk from 2022 'operating profit' to 2023. What Renault doesn't tell you is that both numbers are upward adjusted by combined €2,011M (FY22 €379M and FY23 €1,632M!). Image
4/This shows you just one of the bigger adjustments: 'Horse' with a FY23 impact of €482M. But the €482M explains only 30% of the €1,632M in to get from the shown 'Operating income of €4,117M' to... Image
5/...the actual reported operating income number of €2,485M. Renault had the audacity to call this item "EBIT" in the presentation. This is factually incorrect as we'll see later. They probably looked at this slide and thought it's too obvious if we call both operating income and people might get confused and may ask questions.Image
6/This is now a look into the earnings report. Here, the €2,485M is correctly labelled as 'Group operating income'. You will not find this anywhere in the presentation! In the presentation they even use the term "Group operating income", which I find misleading. Image
7/And then ultimately, voila, we see in the P&L the correct operating income of €2,485M. Some people may think: why the fuss, it's normal to show adjusted numbers. My answer:
First, at what point does it become idiotic when, like in Renault's case, the adjusted numbers over the last few years exceeded actual reported operating income numbers from the P&L by freaking 75%!
Second, good companies provide a full bridge from adjusted to reported (from presentation to P&L). Renault never does.Image
8/Bottomline: Renault's operating profit numbers are bogus. If anyone wants to compare companies, I'd highly recommend to use the numbers as reported on the income statement!

Lastly, you can see from the income statement number €2,485M and €52,376M that the reported operating margin was only 4.7%.

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More from @alojoh

Apr 21
In this thread I explain briefly why Hyundai turned into a zombie company.

Hyundai was the most cash burning automaker globally in 2024 with a negative free cash flow of $11.8 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2024 alone, Hyundai burned $5.4 billion. To fill the capital hole, Hyundai raised net $15B in capital in 2024 (financing cash flow).Image
Negative free cash flow was driven by a lack of operating cash flow (OCF). Hyundai's 2024 OCF was negative $4.2 billion. Image
Hyundai's negative free cash flow was further increased by $7.6B in capital expenditures. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 13
This post is about VW's China business.

The key takeway is that VW is done in China. This business won't provide upside to the group.

VW is simply not competitive in the BEV and quickly growing EREV segment while ICE market is shrinking rapidly.

This makes VW increasingly vulnerable to weakness in other geographies.

How is this relevant to investors?
[🔐subs only]

[the following thread as shared with subscribers on March 11, 2025]
***
VW Group's China business went from a cash cow to a non-needle mover.Image
This chart shows trailing 12 months China income: you can see how the decrease has been accelerating. VW Group's China JV income dropped to just $0.4B over the last 4 quarters. Image
This chart shows the quarterly income from the China business. You can see how both 2Q and 4Q were loss-making. 4Q is by far the strongest sales month in China. 1Q 2025 will be likely loss-making as well. Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 26
Opensourcing Nvidia research. I shared this with subscribers last month.

I highly recommend every investor interested in Nvidia reads this report.

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Read 8 tweets
Feb 26
NEWS: Stellantis announced FY2024 results and expects "return to profitable growth and positive cash generation in 2025", proposed dividend implying 5% yield, and 'contemplates' another SBB in 2H 2025.

FY2024 (year-on-year)
>Revenue down 17%
>Vehicle deliveries down 12%
>Net profit down 70%
>Free cash flow was negative €6B ('industrial FCF')
>Inventories down 18%, of which U.S. dealer stock down 20%.
>Net financial position (ie liquidity minus debt) at €15.1B (which is relatively low given S' operating leverage).
>Pays a divided of €0.68/share, equivalent to roughly 5% yield.

FY2025 outlook
>"Positive" revenue growth (this can mean as low as +$1 extra).
>"Mid-Single Digits" AOI margin. This means adjusted operating income (ie operating income less items S' considers one-offs) relative to revenue. Mid-Single Digits means typically 4% to 6% (but is not exact science). 1% to 3% is usually referred to as "low-single digits".
> "Positive" industril free cash flow. Again, this can mean $1 of cash flow. Industrial free cash flow strips out the financial business of S and is the correct way of looking at cash flow on an operating basis for an automaker since the financial business can create significant volatility that is not really reflective of underlying FCF generation.
Loss of volume and poorer mix (fewer higher value vehicles) drove the revenue decline. Pricing pressure and currency effects added to the decrease. Image
The adjusted oeprating income bridge demonstrates how quickly earnings in an automaker can be wiped out on 'moderately negative' volume/mix changes: a 17% loss in revenue caused a 65% drop in earnings. Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 13
If you invest in Tesla and really want to know what's going on with Tesla in China you should read this thread 🧵.
Exhibit 1: Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Sales in China by Manufacturer.

Key observations:
1. BEV sales volume is dominated by a few large players: BYD, Geely, SAIC-GM, and Tesla but this isn't even half the story.
2. Seasonality has a major impact on the Chinese vehicle market: it always crashes in 1Q followed by a strong rally to the end of the year.
3. Tesla's zigzag sales line is the result of Tesla's export strategy which focuses on exports first-half of a quarter causing predictably a drop in registrations followed by a strong rally into end of quarter.Image
Exhibit 2: BEV Revenue in China by Manufacturer.

Key observations:
1. Despite ranking only #4 in volume, Tesla ranks #1 in BEV sales revenue generation since Tesla sells vehicles at significantly average selling prices than any high volume competitor. But this is still not even half of the story.
2. Revenue is highly concentrated amongst the top 3.Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 23
This is the big picture of Hyundai, perhaps one of the least understood large automakers globally.
(I shared this with subscribers in December)

1. H has been in a long term decline.
2. Until fairly recently, the stock traded for a decade below ATH to return in June to a new ATH.
3. Just like many other high inventory OEMs, Hyundai benefitted enormously from the pandemic creating exceptional windfall profits and cash generation.
4. Structurally Hyundai is a low profitability automaker. The last 18 months profitability was largely driven by various non-sustainable / one-off factors.
5. As the market woke up to this reality the stock sold off almost 30% over the last 6 months and now trades at a 4.2x LTM P/E.
6. Taking into account operational leverage, Hyundai's capitalisation has never been as weak as it is right now.

Bottom line: Financially, Hyundai might be the most overrated automaker right now, especially outside auto industy analysts.

Big picture: Hyundai is not a formidable contender in the global automotive battle. Hyundai maintains its sales primarily by deploying a "throw and see what sticks" strategy, which isn't a strategy at all. A relatively short and therefore highly costly product refresh cycles helps to maitain sales.Image
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Read 5 tweets

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