Thread by @ejustin46

THE CONFUSION between a R0 at 18 for MEASLES and an R0 at 2,5 for WUHAN or at 5, 10, even 20 (in a recent study) for OMICRONS

2) The basic reproduction number R0 is when one person develops an infection and passes it to 1, 2, 10 or 18 persons. It is relevant in a population with no immunity as for example, people not vaccinated against measles.

3) When widespread immunity starts to develop, we will use the Re effective reproduction number or Rt.
Re is the number of people in a population who can be infected by an individual at any specific time. It changes as the population becomes more or less immunized.

3) If the R0 of Wuhan strain was estimated a 2.5, with the increasing immune escape of Omicrons, it is increased to nearly 8.

4) In a recent study, they even estimated the R0 of Omicron at 20.

https://twitter.com/ejustin46/status/1621735182498668544?t=GeX_krtajzAERD-g87wjvw&s=19

5) But, once again, due to the level of immunity of a part of the population, what is interesting for COVID-19, is the Re which depends in a country on the average level of immunity of the population.

Thanks for reading 🙏